Wargaming the NFA Supressor Freedom case

[Muskox]

I spent about an hour on Monday wargaming AI to see how all this plays out.

Here are my theories. Both Grok and Genesis agree.

1. Supressors will get more expensive for a while. There will be a run on them. I think prices will drop initially. Here is how I and AI beleive it will play out.
a. Machine made aluminum silencers will be $300-600
b. 3D printed titanium silencers will be similar, if not $100 more
c. Iconel and other more indestructible full auto silencers will hang in that $1000 mark for at least a year. Until sales prove they need to be priced like the cheaper cans.
d. machined made titanium silences should hold $600-1200 for a while.

2. 3-25 months from now a ton of new companies will come out. They will innovate, they will challenge pricing models, and they will put them in the hands of tons of shooters. This will ultimately lead to the situation we have in Europe.
a. The hard bottom is probably around $250-300, big production companies like Ruger, Savage, SIG and others will cut and 3D print suppressors by the train car load. This will lead to the eventual huge market chop in cost. And it should as someone with a big commercial metal 3D printer can print 30 in a night, and run them through a CNC machine in the morning. 30x$300+$9000 in one night time evolution on $300 worth of material, $100 in electricity and 12-14 hours worth of production time. 3D print, CNC, bead blast, Cerakote and laser print the serial and information them.
b. Everyone will own one, at some point it will become the normal thing like it is here in Europe. All this happened in a 10 year period in Germany. It has been ongoing in Scandinavia and the UK for 15-20 years. People will have one for each rifle.

3. Now that everyone owns one, they will become a consumable at $300-500, you can manage to have more than one. At least one per rifle.

 

[Muskox]

They have to get to the consumable stage.

Early predictions are that the market will be flooded, but prices will go up and then fall hard.

If you need one destroyed you walk out to the garage and smash it with a sledgehammer. No one would ever consider that with the ATF licensing problems before.

They have been treated like a golden goose in America for too long.

Here they are an expensive consumable. One breaks or you screw it up, you have to pay to get it off your license and turn it in. Kind of a pain.

In America that won't be a problem for those 27 free states. About time.

 

[Daggaboy375]

If suppressors get defined as a non firearm, anyone can produce and sell.
This may be the end result.

DB

 

[DieJager]

In Netherlands litigation is slowly. New Benelux Treaty is a step in the good direction. Hopefully within the next decade, things work really slowly here, we can buy them and we have the same situation as in Germany.

Crazy is they are already legal for airguns..

Happy for the American hunter that they have this option available now.

 

[skydiver386]

In Netherlands litigation is slowly. New Benelux Treaty is a step in the good direction. Hopefully within the next decade, things work really slowly here, we can buy them and we have the same situation as in Germany.

Crazy is they are already legal for airguns..

Happy for the American hunter that they have this option available now.

Airguns are a very gray area for suppressors.

I've discussed this at length with several attorneys that specialize in firearms law, including Ken Hansen who passed away several years ago, along with Ted Cruz were the lead attorneys in the Heller v DC case.

If it is a screw on type that is possible to remove from an airgun and install on a firearm, it is a Federally Regulated Suppressor. If it's a shrouded barre/integral frame type that is not possible to remove, it does not fall under the jurisdiction of the ATF.

Airguns are not firearms, so Federal law does not apply and therefore the ATF has no jurisdiction. The ATF does have jurisdiction over suppressors.