Ok, now we are back to normal, I have been trying to keep up with the Ukraine-Russia situation on ISW, and it looks like a bit of a stalemate. Is it likely that Ukraine can gain the initiative again?
@Red Leg what is your take please?
Also, there are a few rumblings from Russia about talks, is this serious?
I don’t know of any serious military analyst who believes Ukraine has lost the initiative. Indeed, except for periodic Russian missile tantrums (more on that in a moment) they are now totally dictating the pace of events.
The Kharkiv counteroffensive liberated the Kharkiv province and the Ukrainians successfully vaulted the river into Luhansk. In Kherson they have taken back more than half of the right bank formerly occupied by Russia. The next major assault will be at a place and time of their choosing- something the Russians can do nothing to prevent. That is the military definition of having the initiative. I should note they did all this without yet receiving modern main battle tanks or iFVs from the West.
The fall mud season has begun which will slow mechanized operations significantly. I suspect Ukraine will use that period to reconstitute its striking power with highly trained, well equipped units coming out of the training base.
It appears Russia hopes to do the same with an untrained, poorly organized mobilized mob operating fifty year old tanks and an ever shrinking artillery support structure. I rather suspect Ukraine would be thrilled if the Russians attempted to attack with this “army” when the ground freezes.
In any case Ukraine will likely maintain constant offensive pressure on Kherson and Luhansk while allowing newly arriving mobilized units to destroy themselves in attacks against their defensive belts in the Donbas.
Ukraine can exploit interior lines to mass a force anywhere along the line of contact very quickly. With all the Russians other problems, they have to move around the operational area using exterior lines - in most cases doubling or tripling the distance traveled to counter a Ukrainian offensive. I would anticipate Ukraine taking advantage of that mobility and concentration advantage as the ground freezes in a few weeks.
The Russian missile strikes seem remarkably parallel to Hitler’s use of the V1 and V2 in the later stages of WWII. They largely missed any critical allied infrastructure thus having no military utility while reuniting the British people to see the war through to victory. Putin seems to be achieving about the same result.
And ignore the typos. I am on vacation and on my iPhone.
