Politics

[mdwest]

Dumb question, but aren’t capabilities supposed to be somewhat secret? Who was Iran supposed to inform of their capabilities? Why would a country NOT lie about something like that

We definitely don’t disclose capabilities of key weapons systems…

What Wikipedia tells you an F22 is capable of is WAY short of its actual capabilities…

Generally speaking countries don’t lie about their weapons systems… they just don’t tell you anything…

There are weapons systems in the US inventory that no one knows about at all (other than the producers and the users)..

The F117 had already been operational for 5 years for example before the pentagon even let anyone know such a plane existed.. and it was another 2 years before anyone actually saw one when it had its first public “unveiling”..

 

[cwpayton]

Shhh, these are all the reasons I'm moving back there and try to keep quiet! The S.E. Idaho area has experienced its own share of Californication.

Idaho Falls has added about 10-15 thousand in the last few years and it shows.

 

[Aaron N]

Dumb question, but aren’t capabilities supposed to be somewhat secret? Who was Iran supposed to inform of their capabilities? Why would a country NOT lie about something like that

To add onto this, I know we don’t, but I now hope Canada a nuke sub roaming the depths that no one knows about. The world thinks we have 1.2 hand crank iron clads in the fleet, but one day, a big black beauty comes flying out of the water ala Hunt for Red October

 

[mdwest]

To add onto this, I know we don’t, but I now hope Canada a nuke sub roaming the depths that no one knows about. The world thinks we have 1.2 hand crank iron clads in the fleet, but one day, a big black beauty comes flying out of the water ala Hunt for Red October

In the past Canada did a pretty decent job of hiding its military secrets… JTF-2 was formed and had been around a few years before anyone knew anything about them..

These days, not so much..

I think that’s largely because Canada has let its military become somewhat dilapidated and ancient…

It’s hard to hide capabilities when your newest fighter was purchased 44 years ago and 7 other countries are flying newer versions of the same plane… and your newest tank is 20 years old and 21 other countries use the same tank…

The US has an advantage in that it produces most of its military equipment, where Canada buys most of its equipment from other countries…

It’s hard to keep a secret when someone not loyal to your flag is producing the secret for you, and selling that same secret to a lot of other people…

This is one of the reasons that the F35 that the US sells abroad is NOT the same plane as the USAF flies… the foreign military sales version is similar.. but is different in key ways… same with the M1A1 tanks.. what we sell the Kuwaitis and Saudis, etc is actually very different than the tank the US army uses…

 

[spike.t]

List of the goings in the middle East in the various countries involved

Starmer and Trump discuss need to open Hormuz strait as Israeli military warns 'weeks' of fighting to come

Fears grow in Lebanon of Israeli ground invasion as IDF preparing for "several more weeks of fighting against Iran and Hezbollah".

www.bbc.com

 

[Scott CWO]

I'm not a financial advisor and I don't play one on TV.

But a very simplistic version is that credit is the lifeblood of the economy.
The bond market is maybe 14-ish percent bigger than the equities market.

The "spreads" are basically comparing govt bonds to corporate bonds.

It's a reliable indicator which (again... Not a financial advisor) indicates lenders (banks) are nervous and credit is tightening which means earnings of corporations are tightening because credit is not as cheap. This means high flyer stocks sober up and the broad equity market usually starts to contract. Usually. Maybe. Probably.

Now... Couple that with the whole planet (actually China and eu mostly) feeling the pain due to shutting off oil flow (operating costs just went bazooka) and the US market being in the clouds...

Conditions are good for crazy to show up. I'm sitting on the sidelines for a bit.

Yes, my money manager called me on a Sunday, of all days! Said their research department thinks the markets will bounce up later this week (unless US bombs Iranian power plants and/or oil facilities) and then he recommends several covered calls in my taxed account and going to mostly cash in my IRA accounts where my previous gains are not taxed. All this because things look rough in May and afterward for a while. When that happens, start buying low again. We shall see.

 

[KJE81]

An interesting read about the possible ramifications of the war with Iran on the relative power levels between China and the US drawing parallels with the 2003 invasion of Iraq: https://www.politico.eu/article/iraq-iran-donald-trump-blunder-far-worse/

 

[spike.t]

Another incident at a usa airport....

Plane and ground vehicle collide at New York's LaGuardia Airport

The airport has been closed until further notice.

www.bbc.com

 

[Aaron N]

In the past Canada did a pretty decent job of hiding its military secrets… JTF-2 was formed and had been around a few years before anyone knew anything about them..

These days, not so much..

I think that’s largely because Canada has let its military become somewhat dilapidated and ancient…

It’s hard to hide capabilities when your newest fighter was purchased 44 years ago and 7 other countries are flying newer versions of the same plane… and your newest tank is 20 years old and 21 other countries use the same tank…

The US has an advantage in that it produces most of its military equipment, where Canada buys most of its equipment from other countries…

It’s hard to keep a secret when someone not loyal to your flag is producing the secret for you, and selling that same secret to a lot of other people…

This is one of the reasons that the F35 that the US sells abroad is NOT the same plane as the USAF flies… the foreign military sales version is similar.. but is different in key ways… same with the M1A1 tanks.. what we sell the Kuwaitis and Saudis, etc is actually very different than the tank the US army uses…

I have reason to hope that the pendulum is now beginning to swing back in the other direction

 

[Altitude sickness]

Watch that bond market. Credit spreads are going off like tornado sirens.

Bessent is enlisted for message management (50 days for 50 years) which concerns me they're not as confident in quick resolution as they say.

Sitting near inflated all time high in the s&p...

Ought to be a wild market day/week.

Paper gold Fund algorithms triggered the gold sell off when the treasury index went above 4% and DXY at 99 the dollar strengthening.

Shanghai physical gold price is still strong.

Also, the OPEC nations may be selling their gold to defend their currency Pegs. And offset the lack of revenue from petroleum shipments slowing. Longer term bonds are over 4%. Much better gains than the falling gold prices.

But US bonds at 4% and 36 trillion in debt can’t exist long


Good news for stackers. Gold will still hit $6000- $6500 in 2026 or early 2027

 

[mdwest]

An interesting read about the possible ramifications of the war with Iran on the relative power levels between China and the US drawing parallels with the 2003 invasion of Iraq: https://www.politico.eu/article/iraq-iran-donald-trump-blunder-far-worse/

you really should try harder to find non biased sources, or at least try to find counter sources that balance out the bias in the sources you cite..

Politico is a known liberal rag that has had a hard on for Trump since his first term.. and Ivo Daalder is a foreign born, european liberal, member of the Democrat party that worked for both Clinton and Obama..

He's been running the circuit since early last year doing podcasts, interviews, etc.. preaching that the world is going to end because Trump is in office.. Bitching about Trump and how shitty the US Government is, is how he pays his mortgage and puts food on his plate.. hes a professional Trump cry baby..

He was at the G7 last year preaching that NATO was done because of Trump and his position on Ukraine..

When the silly Greenland thing was a "thing" he was making the rounds claiming the Greenland issue was the death nail to NATO.. because of Trump..

In 2017 after Trump took office the first time, he went nuts preaching the liberal world order was now over because of Trump..

Hes not exactly a non biased source.. Nor is politico.. and.. for all of his bitching and moaning, he's also yet to be right on much of anything..

 

[Altitude sickness]

That Politico article was loaded with easily disproven details.

Israel did not talk Trump into attacking. Israel’s opinion would have been added to “Pro” column when asked. But once again Saudi Arabia and M.B.S. Has far more say than Israel.

When the U.S. was making plans and making a decision, you can pretty much guarantee everybody knows Israel is all in. It’s the Arab nations that had to give the go ahead.

Iranian Regime change is an Israel priority and a side benefit for the U.S. regime change was down on the U.S. priorities list.

 

[LivingTheDream]

In regards to the Politico article, and discussing how China could fill the leadership void, I am not sure any country is going to be rushing to buy Chinese made air defense systems. There have been plenty of jokes made that it was the TEMU version of air defense.

Also, I will say it is dishonest to say all of the middle east is burning, if anything it seems like many of the Middle Eastern countries have actually rallied around the US and there have been very few missiles or drones getting through, though even one can be scary and losing human life is terrible, it is not the apocalyptic burning that some are making it out to be.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Of course most know these things already. But a good reminder.

 

[KJE81]

you really should try harder to find non biased sources, or at least try to find counter sources that balance out the bias in the sources you cite..

Politico is a known liberal rag that has had a hard on for Trump since his first term.. and Ivo Daalder is a foreign born, european liberal, member of the Democrat party that worked for both Clinton and Obama..

He's been running the circuit since early last year doing podcasts, interviews, etc.. preaching that the world is going to end because Trump is in office.. Bitching about Trump and how shitty the US Government is, is how he pays his mortgage and puts food on his plate.. hes a professional Trump cry baby..

He was at the G7 last year preaching that NATO was done because of Trump and his position on Ukraine..

When the silly Greenland thing was a "thing" he was making the rounds claiming the Greenland issue was the death nail to NATO.. because of Trump..

In 2017 after Trump took office the first time, he went nuts preaching the liberal world order was now over because of Trump..

Hes not exactly a non biased source.. Nor is politico.. and.. for all of his bitching and moaning, he's also yet to be right on much of anything..

Just out of curiosity are there any truly non biased sources out there?

Perhaps this Iran war will turn out to be the greatest thing ever, but there is a lot of articles saying this is the worst oil/energy crisis ever, regardless its hard to know what is truth and what is conjecture.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Take a look at 1440 news. It’s as non biased as is practical.

1440: Facts Without Motives - The Shorty Awards

An international award show that recognizes and celebrates the innovation and creativity in digital and social media, by brands, agencies, nonprofits and individuals.

shortyawards.com

 

[Datchew]

Paper gold Fund algorithms triggered the gold sell off when the treasury index went above 4% and DXY at 99 the dollar strengthening.

Shanghai physical gold price is still strong.

Also, the OPEC nations may be selling their gold to defend their currency Pegs. And offset the lack of revenue from petroleum shipments slowing. Longer term bonds are over 4%. Much better gains than the falling gold prices.

But US bonds at 4% and 36 trillion in debt can’t exist long


Good news for stackers. Gold will still hit $6000- $6500 in 2026 or early 2027

Yup
And miners are now heavily discounted but will probably have a lower quarter with the price of oil blip.
That's... IF it's a blip.

I suspect that if the "war" settles with finality, suddenly we'll start hearing people talk about the cost, the budget, and the national debt, and gold buying will come back in style. This should tilt the scale against any gulf country selling and as you mentioned, big Asian purchasing still occurring.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Oil always spikes during these dust ups. Then oil prices collapse. Usually within 6 months due to a glut

 

[mdwest]

Just out of curiosity are there any truly non biased sources out there?

Perhaps this Iran war will turn out to be the greatest thing ever, but there is a lot of articles saying this is the worst oil/energy crisis ever, regardless its hard to know what is truth and what is conjecture.

truly non biased... probably not.. if a human is involved, at least some measure of bias will be present, no matter how hard the human might try...

that said.. there are clearly people out there that not only have extreme bias.. but they do absolutely nothing to attempt to remove it.. they have an agenda.. and their desire is to influence you toward their bias..

Considering Im old enough to remember the 2+ hour waits in line to get gas in the 1970's.. and that things were better during that crisis in the US than for most of the world.. Europe actually resorted to rationing gas.. If anyone thinks this is the worst oil/energy crisis ever, they clearly lack the ability to use google or chatgpt or copilot or any of a number of tools out there.. or.. they have a clear bias and agenda and are lying on purpose in an attempt to support their agenda..

Oil prices arent even has high yet as they were in 2022.. that was just 4 years ago... Gas was over $4 per gallon in the US briefly in 2023 as well.. In 2008 Gas went over $4 a gallon (in 2008 dollars, clearly it would be more now).. All of that is well within the lifespan of anyone using AH...

The national average in the US is $3.53 per gallon today..

Will it get worse? Maybe... Will it get better? Again, maybe...

But if someone is telling you this is the worst crisis ever as of right now, and youre believing it... youre either falling for their lies.. or simply dumb (I dont believe the latter is true).. because the truth is sitting right in front of you..

 

[LivingTheDream]

Just out of curiosity are there any truly non biased sources out there?

Perhaps this Iran war will turn out to be the greatest thing ever, but there is a lot of articles saying this is the worst oil/energy crisis ever, regardless its hard to know what is truth and what is conjecture.

I would say that is isnt the greatest thing ever, war is always terrible, and I agree there is an energy crisis. But there is alot of grandiose generalizations to generate clicks.