Politics

[Pondoro]

I can only agree with RLD here.. Europe and Canada came to the same conclusion..

" The idea of getting on Trump's good side is an illusion. He is mercurial and short tempered. Nobody trusts him to stand by his word and stick with a long term deal. No business or country is willing to tie their prosperity to a guy who sets policy based on his blood sugar surges. Why make a deal with a guy you don't think will abide by it?

Secondarily, he acts like a bully. And nobody wants to give an olive branch to a bully. It just invites more aggression. "

 

[Pondoro]

And the fact that Joe Kent jumped ship tells me a lot..

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Okey..so enlighten us how Trump will handle this Hormuz mess..? No coalition support..

Escort tankers with US destroyers..? For how long..? Escorting single tankers or convoys..?

I doubt that Lloyd etc. will grant tankers insurance.. What a mess..

I don't think escorting tankers is a good option. Iran wants and needs tankers to sail each and every day, to export their oil. Trump should simply tell Iran, if you hit another countries' tanker, we will hit one or two of yours. The US can also simply tell the shipping industry, any tanker heading to Kharg Island risks being sunk. The implied threat will make it difficult for the shipping company to get insurance coverage and will not attempt to berth at Kharg Island. If Iran plays with mines, we can put a ring of mines around Kharg Island. Iran has no Navy and can't do a thing about it.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

And the fact that Joe Kent jumped ship tells me a lot..

Joe who? What exactly does this tell you? My guess Kent, from Washington state, didn't like the Washington DC commute and cost of living and decided to go back home.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5787717-johnson-disagrees-kent-iran/

 

[RLD]

So what exactly is Europe and Canada prepared to do about it other than whine?

Cut deals with each other and India, China, etc. Buy products we used to buy from the U.S. from other places.

Interestingly, you should be aware that the Conservative Party of Canada, of whom I am a member, has made free trade with many countries including the U.S. an official part of their new platform (entitled "Canada First"). Canadian conservatism is rooted in a belief in free trade. We were cruising to a win in the last federal election until Trump got elected and acted out and Pol got smoked by the mere perception he might be inclined towards Trumpism. You can bet he won't make that mistake again.

And my province is governed by a historically successful Conservative Populist by the name of Ford. He is the guy that set Trump off with the Reagan ad and was going to turn off the power to Michigan. He cannot stand Trump and his policies and goes up in the polls every time he pulls a stunt like that.

The dislike of Trump is very wide reaching in Canada. He is politically toxic for conservatives and liberals up here.

 

[Pondoro]

So who is lying..? Kent or Johnson..??

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Gotta disagree with you here. Most of the world and its major corporations are working on ways to run their businesses without the U.S. as a reliable partner, and literally building infrastructure to avoid being so dependent on the United States. Canada, as I suspect you know, will likely conclude a free trade deal with India this year. Also, Canada's second largest trading partner is no longer China (as of last year) it is now the U.K. For another example BMW is pouring money into refurbishing their X3 plant in South Africa so they can sell those vehicles to markets (including Canada and Mexico) previously serviced by South Carolina, because with the trade wars the U.S. is engaging in it is the best way to make a profit. If you go to your BMW dealership today and order a new X3, their biggest selling model in Canada, it will come to you from South Africa now, not the United States. Other companies are doing exactly the same thing.

Despite the U.S. tariffs China exported more goods than ever last year.

The idea of getting on Trump's good side is an illusion. He is mercurial and short tempered. Nobody trusts him to stand by his word and stick with a long term deal. No business or country is willing to tie their prosperity to a guy who sets policy based on his blood sugar surges. Why make a deal with a guy you don't think will abide by it?

Secondarily, he acts like a bully. And nobody wants to give an olive branch to a bully. It just invites more aggression.

Make no mistake I think Donald trump is a boorish leader who brute forces his way through everything he touches. That said I’ve seen first hand what Chinese involvement/investment in the fishing industry is doing to this region and I have seen nothing to persuade me that they will not operate in the same manner in every other industry they get a foothold in.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Cut deals with each other and India, China, etc. Buy products we used to buy from the U.S. from other places.

Interestingly, you should be aware that the Conservative Party of Canada, of whom I am a member, has made free trade with many countries including the U.S. an official part of their new platform (entitled "Canada First"). Canadian conservatism is rooted in a belief in free trade. We were cruising to a win in the last federal election until Trump got elected and acted out and Pol got smoked by the mere perception he might be inclined towards Trumpism. You can bet he won't make that mistake again.

And my province is governed by a historically successful Conservative Populist by the name of Ford. He is the guy that set Trump off with the Reagan ad and was going to turn off the power to Michigan. He cannot stand Trump and his policies and goes up in the polls every time he pulls a stunt like that.

The dislike of Trump is very wide reaching in Canada. He is politically toxic for conservatives and liberals up here.

To me it seems shortsighted to turn away from trusted trading partners into the arms of the Chinese and Indians over the policy’s of a president who most likely will be a spent force and blowhard by this fall anyway.

As I see it at the very least you can trust capitalists to act as capitalists..

Ford seemed to have legs as a politician he’s succeeded in mitigating the greenbelt scandal and survived having a crack head for a brother.

 

[mdwest]

So who is lying..? Kent or Johnson..??

they probably both think they are telling the truth...

they have access to completely different information..

that said.. Johnson, as a member of the Gang of 8, has access to EVERYTHING Kent has access to.. plus a whole lot more.. So Johnson is going to be privy to a lot more detail and to information across multiple agencies and organizations.. where Kent is only going to be involved in the information that his organization produces and/or shares with higher organizations..

You seem to think Kent is someone special in the government..

He is one of 8700 SES level employees.. he is a mid level functionary that runs an important, but small and mission specific apparatus.. you only know his name because his wife was killed and he wrote a successful book about her life and then went on the road doing big pod casts and interviews about her life for a couple of years afterwards..

Otherwise he'd just be one of the 8700 support level leaders that report through numerous additional layers of leadership before anything they say or do even gets remotely close to the President..

I like Joe Kent..

But the truth is.. other than being a social media influencer type who happens to hold a mid level leadership position in the government.. hes honestly a nobody when it comes to the US federal government, its policy, etc..

 

[RLD]

To me it seems shortsighted to turn away from trusted trading partners into the arms of the Chinese and Indians over the policy’s of a president who most likely will be a spent force and blowhard by this fall anyway.

As I see it at the very least you can trust capitalists to act as capitalists..

I have no love for the Chinese government, but I don't think we have turned away from anyone. We have been ill treated by the current government of a nation we used to trust and have a great relationship with.

There will be reassessment when there is new leadership in the United States, but until then we deal with the administration they have elected.

And in many ways the Chinese are plenty capitalist. They are just single party autocratic without a legit legal system. But functionally, on trade, they are capitalist.

And India is certainly capitalist.

 

[mdwest]

Cut deals with each other and India, China, etc. Buy products we used to buy from the U.S. from other places.

We're talking about two different things..

the "what is Europe going to do about it" was specifically directed at Pondoros whining about the Straights of Hormuz..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I have no love for the Chinese government, but I don't think we have turned away from anyone. We have been ill treated by the current government of a nation we used to trust and have a great relationship with.

There will be reassessment when there is new leadership in the United States, but until then we deal with the administration they have elected.

And in many ways the Chinese are plenty capitalist. They are just single party autocratic without a legit legal system. But functionally, on trade, they are capitalist.

The real question is how much damage and espionage will be done in the interim

 

[RLD]

We're talking about two different things..

the "what is Europe going to do about it" was specifically directed at Pondoros whining about the Straights of Hormuz..

My apologies.

The answer to what Europe or Canada is really going to do about Hormuz is "dick all."

 

[RLD]

The real question is how much damage and espionage will be done in the interim

You are right. Not a lot of good options out there right now.

 

[mdwest]

We have been ill treated by the current government of a nation we used to trust and have a great relationship with.

Therein lies the rub...

Ask a conservative American.. and he'll tell you that we have been ill treated and taken advantage of by the governments of Canada and Europe for far too long.. and that theyre all pissed now that they arent being allowed to continue the mistreatment..

And the reality is.. both are true..

There is no denying that NATO (as a singular example.. there are plenty more) largely sat on its ass, refused to shoulder its share of the costs, responsibilities, or commitments made for decades...

And all of Europe (and Canada) screamed like Trump was doing them wrong when he took them to task over it...

And here we are years into the Ukraine war.. and now most of Europe (and Canada) are acknowledging that they do in fact need to be pulling their fair share of the weight...


On the trade front, I dont think there is any dispute that the pendulum had swung WAY out of favor of the US over the years (globally).. .but.. I think most will also acknowledge that Trump is attempting to swing is WAY to the other side now rather than find a reasonable happy medium that everyone can be satisfied with..

So.. who is really at fault?

I'd say everyone has shit on their shoes... and no one wants to admit it.. its easier just to shout and point fingers and blame someone else..

ALL relationships are two way streets.. the US and Canada, the US and Europe, etc. didnt get where we are because of one party and one party only.. Everyone played a role..

What should be happening, but never will.. because frankly the thing the US, Canada, and Europe have most in common is.. we all SUCK at choosing leaders.. is all parties should be coming to the table to figure out what strategically, in the long term, benefits everyone...

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I have no love for the Chinese government, but I don't think we have turned away from anyone. We have been ill treated by the current government of a nation we used to trust and have a great relationship with.

There will be reassessment when there is new leadership in the United States, but until then we deal with the administration they have elected.

And in many ways the Chinese are plenty capitalist. They are just single party autocratic without a legit legal system. But functionally, on trade, they are capitalist.

And India is certainly capitalist.

India may be capitalist but too me they represent an existential threat to the Canadian way of life and identity. they come in hoards buy up every small business in sight by living under conditions most would find appalling and make no effort to integrate with our culture and values much the same as muslims in Europe.

 

[RLD]

India may be capitalist but too me they represent an existential threat to the Canadian way of life and identity. they come in hoards buy up every small business in sight by living under conditions most would find appalling and make no effort to integrate with our culture and values much the same as muslims in Europe.

That is an immigration issue, not a trade issue. Buying and selling goods and services with India is not a threat to our way of life.

Plus I should point out that there are many, many distinguished Canadian businessmen and physicians who are of Indian origin and have made our country far better. Oddly enough many of them ended up here via Uganda, Zambia of South Africa.

If I find the time later I will post my story about one of those folks whose family ended up being a client of mine. I would take immigrants like that guy every day of the week.

 

[Tanks]

And the fact that Joe Kent jumped ship tells me a lot..

He was from the far-right isolationist wing of MAGA. You know, the folks that like to stick their head in the sand and pretend what goes on in the rest of the world does not matter. It would be much worse for the EU if folks that think the way he does dictated US foreign policy all the time.

 

[Wheels]

Does anyone else think there is a significant diplomatic risk with Trump asking so many countries, but particularly China, for help in the Straits of H so publicly? Would this not have been done much better behind closed doors? First it hides the ask, and secondarily at least the predictable declines would not have been so public.

He is supposed to be meeting with Xi to finish some negotiating, and this strikes me as a clear admission of weakness on Trump's part before he heads into those negotiations. Looking weak going into negotiations, particularly with an opponent like China/Xi is not where you want to be.

Isn't Xi sitting in his office thinking, "If he can't handle the Straits of Hormuz against a broken middle power on his own, than how much power can he really exert in the Strait of Taiwan against a real foe"?

Or is Trump putting them all on record. Iran is Trumps primary goal. The straits are secondary.

Europe and Asia need the straits to be open. Trump only wants them to be open. America has 10’s of thousands of troops in both Europe and Asia helping to defend them and yet those countries won’t send the navy to help keep the straits open for their own betterment.

Is NATO a two way street or only a one way street with America being the big teat. If no help comes from Europe I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a drawdown of troops and a significant weakening of NATO. I’m not saying that’s ideal but it definitely something Trump would consider and he is putting everyone on record.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

@RLD you and I will likely have to agree to disagree on indians much as we do with natives.