Politics

[Boyd Brooks]

So we should only sell our resources to our neighbour who openly and repeatedly have threatened to invade us?

I think the only thing invaded, was the Liberal psyche, and to the greatest extent I see.

 

[Aaron N]

I think the only thing invaded, was the Liberal psyche, and to the greatest extent I see.

Well as a leader you have to take things at face value and plan around them

 

[Foxi]

"Lacking a Ronald Reagan or John Kennedy, or frankly one of our more accomplished AH members running for President, Trump is the best we have at present.
Would we other than in our better conduct, be able to do a better job overall as President? "

Sure,in every case.
I would like to nominate @Red Leg as the new president.

 

[Pheroze]

Well as a leader you have to take things at face value and plan around them

I don’t agree. As a leader you have to discern where the advantage is. Hyping tariffs on 15% of our goods to potentially damage the auto sector in exchange for a one year reduction on a canola by-product (essentially an animal feed left over after seeds are crushed) isn’t leadership.

Doug Ford is apoplectic but serve him right for being such an ass during the election.

What drives me crazy is that Carney is living up to be the person everyone knows he is! Harper warned us about Trudeau and the UK about Carney. Maybe we should start listening. We immigrated here over 50 years ago from a very communist India. My father complained about the Canadian blueblood that is long on political connections but short on talent. They would rise up the bureaucracy and stifle those who threatened them. He hated them because that kind of person destroyed the potential my father had hoped for India in the post war period. I have always believed that Trump identified the same person in Carney. Trump knows a mark.

I laugh that a “Carny” is always part of every circus. I would like to see that reference turn up in political cartoons! Send in the Clowns!

 

[WAB]

You can bypass Canada by taking the Alaska Marine Highway ferry from Bellingham, Washington to Southeast, Alaska year round. Another ferry will take you from Bellingham to Whittier (50 miles south of Anchorage) during late spring to early fall if that ship is running its normal route.
https://dot.alaska.gov/amhs/schedules.shtml

You can bypass Canada by taking the Alaska Marine Highway ferry from Bellingham, Washington to Southeast, Alaska year round. Another ferry will take you from Bellingham to Whittier (50 miles south of Anchorage) during late spring to early fall if that ship is running its normal route.
https://dot.alaska.gov/amhs/schedules.shtml

You’re cheating!

 

[Aaron N]

Here’s what Harper said about carney

Ottawa, Ontario. Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement regarding Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s appointment to the Bank of England:

“On behalf of the Government of Canada I would like to offer my congratulations to Mark Carney on his appointment as Governor of the Bank of England.

“In this time of global economic uncertainty, Governor Carney has done an admirable job in fulfilling the Bank of Canada’s mandate and has been a valued partner as the Government has worked to steer Canada away from the worst impacts of the global economic recession. As a result, Canada remains an example to the world with its strong banks, effective regulatory environment and sound economic policy.

“I wish Governor Carney every success as he begins his new role on July 1, 2013.

 

[Aaron N]

I think the only thing invaded, was the Liberal psyche, and to the greatest extent I see.

You’re a lineman correct? IBEW? Unions seem pretty lefty to me. (Coming from an ex 424 member)

 

[Pheroze]

Here’s what Harper said about carney

Ottawa, Ontario. Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement regarding Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s appointment to the Bank of England:

“On behalf of the Government of Canada I would like to offer my congratulations to Mark Carney on his appointment as Governor of the Bank of England.

“In this time of global economic uncertainty, Governor Carney has done an admirable job in fulfilling the Bank of Canada’s mandate and has been a valued partner as the Government has worked to steer Canada away from the worst impacts of the global economic recession. As a result, Canada remains an example to the world with its strong banks, effective regulatory environment and sound economic policy.

“I wish Governor Carney every success as he begins his new role on July 1, 2013.

You are relying on a post about public congratulations. You understand that these are polite out of custom, of course it’s complimentary. Especially since he dutifully followed Harper’s direction during the crisis. Please look at his career. None of his initiatives with the world bank were followed. And he then went on to be a disaster in the uk. You have to look past what are clearly socially polite statements

 

[steve white]

Careful not to trigger the Liberal Canadians, they can’t comprehend sarcasm.

Neither can liberal Americans....don't get me started on their lame memes.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

More tantrum throwing because he's not getting his way.... He's no better than a 2nd grader trying to bully 1st graders out of lunch money.

 

[Alistair]

All valid points.. however, none of it changes the fact that unemployment is down, the markets are up, interest rates are dropping, and tax cuts to the middle class have been promised.. all of which are historic drivers in voter satisfaction related to the economy..

and again, while agreeing with most of your points, you leave some very key and important facts out..

like.. while indeed Gen Y does a whole lot of bitching about what they cant afford.. the facts clearly show that Gen Y has a very different set of priorities than older generations, and that US wages have actually increased at a greater rate over the last 15 years than inflation.. and that actually takes into account the outrageous 2 years of inflation brought on to us by uncle joe.. (and thats despite covid.. the "great resignation" saw wages increase 8-12% in 12 months across most industries in the US.. then joe's 20% inflation over 2 years negated most of those gains.. and still wages outpace inflation overall)...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/us-wages-keeping-up-with-inflation/

So.. Gen Y actually has MORE buying power across all products and services than they had 15 years ago..

there have just been huge swings in certain markets where certain things (housing and food for example) where those specific items have increased in cost at a higher pace than wages.. theres no doubt about that.. but overall, the big picture is very different..

When speaking to priorities and whether or not Joe 6 Pack can afford a 6 pack.. its important to note than the typical Gen X'er in the US goes out to eat dinner 1x times per week.. .While the typical Gen Y guy goes out to eat 5x times per week on average.. (Gen Y prioritizes convenience and social activities at a substantially higher rate than older generations..

Among Gen Y and Gen Z more than 38% own the latest edition or second latest edition iphone (or android equivalent) while among Gen X that number is less than half... (young generations prioritize technology and electronics at a much more advanced and much more expensive rate)..

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/news/average-millennial-eats-out-five-times-a-week-study-finds/

The list of things that Gen Y indulges in that Gen Z generally does not (or not to the same extent) is extensive...

For example Gen Y is the largest purchaser of "Socially responsible and sustainable brands" (much more expensive than other options)..

They invest more in online shopping and subscription services than any other generation...

They spend more on health and wellness, which includes organic and specialized foods, supplements, etc. than any other generation

They prioritize experiences more than any other generation (anyone taken a look at what a pair of Taylor Swift tickets costs these days? concerts and live music is one of the top expenses within the "experiences" category for Gen Y)..

Personal Care and Apparel is a huge priority with Gen Y. Notable shares of spending goes toward personal grooming, beauty products, etc (often influenced by social media trends), that are at a higher rate than other generations..

and then there are the other very obvious things that are clear issues like they carry the most student loan debt, generally have the largest volume of automobile related debt (although that is trending down in recent years as more and more city dwelling Gen Y are turning toward ride sharing and buying lessor vehicles or no vehicles at all...

What it amounts to is there isnt a lot of money left over to buy $12 a six pack craft beer (Gen Y is also the largest buyer of premium alcohol products, craft beers, etc.. but not the largest buyer of alcohol in general.. that title still belongs to the smaller, but wealthier Gen X).. because the priority is a new iPhone, eating out at applebees 5 days a week, shopping for make up at Ulta and Sephora rather than at CVS and Walgreens like their mothers do, a dozen subscription services, and servicing a ton of debt incurred after chasing liberal arts degrees, that dont result in high paying jobs, etc..etc..

the fact remains that wages have outpaced inflation in the US for the last 15 years.. and the job market is much more secure than it was just 18 months ago... that interest rates on major items like vehicles and homes are down.. etc..


wages just havent kept up with spending trends and consumer desires..

The median size for a "middle class" home in the US in 1980 was 1595 sq feet... today the median (2024 study) in the US for a "middle class" home is 2164 sq feet...

Millennials have moved the goal posts.. its not good enough to eat vienna sausages, live in a 1500 sq foot house, wear clothes from wal mart, etc.. and be able to afford all of the coors light you could ever want.. (lower middle class in the 80's)

Today we need organic grass fed beef, a 2164 sq foot house, shop at vineyard vines, etc.. and then bitch because we cant afford a six pack of heinikan... (lower middle class today)


It should be noted that Im not saying everyone is happy with their position in society, that they think they are economically booming, etc..

What I am saying (or was saying in the original post) is if Joe six pack looks at where he was 24 months ago.. and then looks at where he is today.. most believe they are in a better position.. they do not believe they are in a worse one.. if they couldnt afford a beer yesterday, they sure as shit couldnt afford one 2 years ago.. and if they are worried about their jobs today with 4.4% unemployment.. then they were sure as hell terrified when unemployment hit 6.3% in 2021..

While 28 year old Karen in training may lament her inability to pay the $80K in debt incurred while pursuing a BA in Gender studies.. 2024 and 2025 studies show working class and middle income workers are shifting away from the D party and into the R world at an alarming rate (alarming to the D's at least).. (The Center for Politics, Gallup).. even NPR and Rippon Society have reported (im sure reluctantly) that this is happening.. largely due to younger peoples desire for the "tangible economic impacts" that have been obtained by Trump policy and their desire for "cultural shifts"...

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/14/nx-s1-5183060/why-working-class-voters-have-been-shifting-toward-the-republican-party

Working Class Folks are the New Political Base and Republicans Have the Advantage | The Ripon Society

The GOP's new voters need relief from both government and the private sector.

riponsociety.org

That's a lot to unpack, so let's go through line by line.

Unemployment. No, it's not down.

Civilian unemployment rate

www.bls.gov

Bls statistics pegged it at 4.1% in December 24, now they're at 4.4%. Still low by historical standards, but the highest level since October 2021.

The markets are up, but only due to AI.

The SP493 vs the Magificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook), Nvidia, and Tesla), all of whom are all in on AI, and frankly, have silly valuations:

Interest rates are dropping. No argument, they definitely are.

Tax cuts, who knows. Promises mean nothing to any politician, let along this administration.

The Gen Y stuff, well... this ain't a generational thing. It's a socioeconomic thing. If you're in the top 10% of so of household, this is a great economy. If you're not, it ain't.

Those folks (i.e, us) are pretty happy, and they're still spending, the rest, not so much.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-10-earners-drive-nearly-191500198.html

Wage growth, eh, sort of.

By CPI, just about, yeah: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pct_12mths

Compared to car payments, mortgage payments, rent, electricity, health insurance, all the big ticket items...not so much.

Job security, sorry, just no. Once again, unemployment up, job creation not close to keeping up with population growth, masses of layoffs in the last year. We've gone from no hire, no fire, to no hire, some fire. The only categories that seem immune right now are healthcare (people are getting old), speciality construction (gotta build them data centers), and consulting (gotta work how AI is gonna make you money).

2025 Year-End Challenger Report: Highest Q4 Layoffs Since 2008; Lowest YTD Hiring Since 2010

Layoff plans by US-based employers soared in 2025 led primarily by the Federal Government and Technology. Meanwhile, employers announced the lowest number of new hires since 2010. December saw the fewest layoff plans in 17-months, and December's hiring plans were the highest for the month since...

www.challengergray.com

That brings us to the last point, where, I'm sorry, you're also wrong. 'People' don't believe they're better off, at least not on average nation wide. I draw your attention to the consumer sentiment index:

US Consumer Confidence

A monthly survey of US consumer attitudes, spending plans, and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates

www.conference-board.org

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

View an index of the results of the University of Michigan's monthly Survey of Consumers, which is used to estimate future spending and saving.

fred.stlouisfed.org

You only have to look at all the Earnings calls I listed in the previous post to see that's impacting businesses, and it's not like the administration isn't aware that the populace is souring on the economy.

If they aren't why have they tried to force down mortgage rates, put caps on credit card interest, and paused student loan collections?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-orders-his-representatives-buy-200-billion-dollars-mortgage-bonds-2026-01-08/

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/381

As Trump throws a bone to Gen Z on student debt, watchdog calls it an 'incoherent political giveaway,' straight out of Biden's playbook | Fortune

Student-debt collections are being halted again, as they have for over half a decade now.

fortune.com

Not exactly policy decisions you'd feel the need to make if everyone was so confident in the economy...

 

[Boyd Brooks]

You’re a lineman correct? IBEW? Unions seem pretty lefty to me. (Coming from an ex 424 member)

Yes I’m a retired power lineman. You are correct, unions are as left as you can get and still be on this planet. Union dues were just another form of tax so some lazy retard didn’t have to do an honest days work.
So because I pay income tax, that makes me a Liberal, by your thought process.

 

[Alistair]

Beer/alcohol consumption has been used to judge economic health in the past. The question now is it still a good indicator since the general population is decreasing alcohol consumption. Especially since the younger generation has been turning their noses up to alcohol. 54% of adults report to drinking alcohol last year which is the lowest rate in 90 years per my AI search assistant.

The Atlanta Fed just estimated GDP for the fourth quarter at 5.3% which is pretty healthy.

https://www.reddit.com/r/EconomyCharts/comments/1qcuas6/atlanta_fed_gdpnow_puts_q4_2025_real_gdp_growth

FMCG can definitely be used as a good economic indicator. I haven’t studied it but I do wonder how much the Covid free money followed by the Biden Inflation Reduction Act (which caused inflation) added to an artificial increase in FMCG numbers that are now having to be accounted for.

I don’t know how people are feeling in Wisconsin but people in Oklahoma that I talk to are feeling pretty good about the economy. Most are getting salary percentage bumps they haven’t seen since prior to the 2008 financial crisis, other than the above said Covid/inflation bumps.

In economic moves, sometimes regions lead, sometimes industries lead while others move later or not at all. From a localized perspective people around here seem pretty positive. I have a feeling @mdwest ,200 miles away from me, is feeling the same. Thus his sentiment.

This is a good question, and as this is my industry, I feel that for once, I'm actually the expert and can comment with some authority!

Alcohol consumption is definitely declining, and in fact has been for about 30 years now. People just ain't drinking like the used to. You probably drink less than your dad, and your kids probably drink less than you.

For beer specifically, this usually means a roughly 1-1.5% volume decline each year.

But this year, it's 4%...

What is also notable, is that in past years, this has been outweighed by a trend towards premiumization.

A boomer might spend 20 bucks on 24 cans of bud. A Millenial, used to spend 20 bucks on 4 cans of pretentious craft IPA.

A boomer might go to a dive bar 4 nights a week, whilst the millenial goes to a fancy cocktail bar twice a month. Less volume, similar dollars.

For beer, this has generally meant less volume, but more revenue, with a big focus on premium brands, which are the areas that were growing.

Until about 2024, and even more so in 2025.

People now are not just drinking less, they're straight up spending less. Volumes are down AND people are trading down to economy brands so revenue is down. Some of our economy portfolio actually pegged big volume jumps this year, for the first time in at least a decade.

We also see big declines in the 'on-trade' i.e bars, clubs, stadiums, and a shift towards lots of large bulk packs, typically in supermarkets. We also see a big jump in singles in Convenience. This generally means the wealthier people feeling the pinch are staying home and buying in bulk. Whilst the poor people are staying home and buying a small amount for small money in impulse occasions. Neither are generally indicators of economic confidence - the last time we saw this trend was late '08...

I think that's not just a systemic 'people don't drink now' trend, that's a cyclical trend, because people are broke. That seems to be the industry consensus as well.

I'm sure some regions are feeling good, and I won't detract from your lived experiences, but I tend to like the nationwide macro analysis based on data more here. Cuts out a lot of the local 'all my (rich) friends are real happy', or the boom/bust variance on local geographies. The trends I posted above don't paint a rosy story there, and based on our sales data, discussions with various other FMCG acquaintances, etc, I'm inclined to believe 'em.

Oh, and a depressing thought on GDP growth to end my doom 'n' gloom: https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/data...rst-half-2025-jason-furman-harvard-economist/

 

[Pheroze]

Alcohol consumption is definitely declining, and in fact has been for about 30 years now. People just ain't drinking like the used to. You probably drink less than your dad, and your kids probably drink less than you.

Ummmmm……..not so much over here…..‍

 

[Alistair]

Ummmmm……..not so much over here…..‍

Heh, fair. The issue with general population level trends! There's always some outliers.

Prost!

 

[steve white]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that a LOT of our deficit spending could be curtailed if we truly eliminated fraud in government? Also, what happened concerning the DOGE investigations--did they result in cuts and if not, why not?

 

[Brent in Az]

Karl Rove predicting the Dems will retake the house in the midterms, with an uphill battle for the Senate.

 

[JimP]

Karl Rove predicting the Dems will retake the house in the midterms, with an uphill battle for the Senate.

That's normal.

Non presidential election where most voters will stay home and not bother, especially the Republicans.

 

[Aaron N]

Yes I’m a retired power lineman. You are correct, unions are as left as you can get and still be on this planet. Union dues were just another form of tax so some lazy retard didn’t have to do an honest days work.
So because I pay income tax, that makes me a Liberal, by your thought process.

It’s amazing how hypocritical we will be to get paid a fair wage and pension.

 

[Hank2211]

I know some of you thought my post on the state of Canada was offside, but, even the Premier of Ontario realizes that the Chinese EV’s are just electronic spies for the CCP.
If Canada doesn’t reject the Liberal communist government soon, Canada will be the biggest threat to Democracy not only here but the USA as well.
SkidMark Carnage got nothing for Canadians in his trip to China, but padded his portfolio by selling us out the Chinese regime.
I hope that the US will allow refugee status for us common sense Canadians fleeing a communist dictatorship.

I’m one of those.

We agree to bring in fewer than 50,000 Chinese made cars and get to resume selling our canola and other agricultural products in China. And that’s a bad deal? About 2 million cars are sold every year in Canada. 2.5% of the cars sold in Canada might be made in China. Wow.

Even President Trump said he thought Carney made a good deal. In fact, Trump has himself reached trade accommodations with China, and his administration continues to work towards a broader trade deal with the Chinese (note the sale of AI chips). Does this mean that the US is on the road to communism too?

Diversifying our trading partners is the best thing Canada (and frankly any country) can do, and starting by re-setting relations with the two largest countries in the world (relations with which Trudeau effectively destroyed) is a pretty good start.

I’m no Liberal (God knows), but Carney is no Trudeau either. And Canada is nowhere near a communist country, and has no chance of becoming one. As others have said, I’ll take that bet. Name the amount, and the stakeholder (I want to be sure my kids will collect), and I’m in.

And one other thing we can do is to stop trying create hysteria and name-calling in politics. We’re better than that.