Politics

KJE81 said:
I think that Germany is currently aspiring to take over from the US in Nato if Trump were to decide to leave, at least their current build up is quite massive, if I understand it correctly they are undergoing their largest buildup since the cold war. From currently about 90 billion USD to 152 billion USD by 2029. Apparently this will put them at number 4 of global military spending.

Regardless I guess that building up simply for defending europe would not require the levels of military spending that the US does, since there would be no need for a global blue water navy, really no need for carrier strike groups or other forces ment for global force projection. I assume that europe would focus on defending europe not to be able to project power into other reg
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KJE81 said:
Regarding the detterent of the US in Nato I think its all about gone by now, from all those comments by Trump lately and especially the one about Nato being a paper tiger and Putin knows it...

I am also thinking that since Ukraine is able to fend of Russia by themselves and by now they retake more land then the russians conquers, perhaps we dont have to dimension our forces to respond to a superpower but rather a regional power with nukes, as long as we have some nuclear capabilities any war will most likely be fought with conventional forces and Russia seems to have a very hard time defeating Ukraine, let alone the rest of europe.
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Hopelessly naive are you not...
The Ukrainians have at least 800.000+ soldiers fighting like lions. Its absolutely staggering seeing how they are slaughtering the orchs on a daily basis. Implying our own woke military is capable of doing the same at least in the short term is naive. Sweden have about twice as many radicalized lunatics and hardened gang criminals as you have soldiers have you not..but worry not, we are trailing just behind here in No way.
I hardly think the US will let go the strategic locations around the northern Atlantic, North west passage. Threatening to withdraw from NATO is Trumps way of putting pressure on our elected morons. Europe should have started arming up in 2018. The signs were clear and they did`nt.
I just got my youngest son out of the military before he committed to anything and I`m very very happy about that.
 
Accidental Villain said:
Hopelessly naive are you not...
The Ukrainians have at least 800.000+ soldiers fighting like lions. Its absolutely staggering seeing how they are slaughtering the orchs on a daily basis. Implying our own woke military is capable of doing the same at least in the short term is naive. Sweden have about twice as many radicalized lunatics and hardened gang criminals as you have soldiers have you not..but worry not, we are trailing just behind here in No way.
I hardly think the US will let go the strategic locations around the northern Atlantic, North west passage. Threatening to withdraw from NATO is Trumps way of putting pressure on our elected morons. Europe should have started arming up in 2018. The signs were clear and they did`nt.
I just got my youngest son out of the military before he committed to anything and I`m very very happy about that.
Click to expand...
Apparently every weird thing Trump says about europe or Nato is possible to interpret as just being his way of putting pressure on other Nato members and nothing else.

Indeed regardless what new madness he says many people seems to think that he always has a sound reasoning behind it...I wish I could be as certain about that as you seem to be.

Pertaining to what weird stuff he sometimes say I think its really scary that even some republicans seems to be thinking that his mental faculties are not always functioning properly.
 
Big_Easy said:
Unfortunately since most of the house is gerrymandered, there won't be large swings in representation anymore. And there are only 2-3 senate republicans that stand a chance of loosing this time around. They'll most likely loose the house, but probably still hold the senate. On the plus side, that means no more tax cuts for the rich.
Click to expand...

I think you meant to say. “ no more tax cuts for the people paying most of the taxes”

By the way. All of you Bernie Bros and AOC acolytes can pay as much tax as you like. Throw an extra check in the mail to the IRS if you feel they should have more to waste.

My ask is to show me where all the money is going now before you ask for more.
 
KJE81 said:
In a way a real isolationist would probably be much better then an interventionist like Trump turned out to be. I mean more predictable less of the current president lashing out at everything etc...
Click to expand...

I think an intervention was long overdue in this case.
Please take a minute for a quick reminder of how long the U.S. has been getting punched in the face by the punk on the street corner.

 
Altitude sickness said:
I think an intervention was long overdue in this case.
Please take a minute for a quick reminder of how long the U.S. has been getting punched in the face by the punk on the street corner.

Click to expand...
Yes in Iran I think that the june operation was a real success and completly warranted, I am not so sure about this latest war but perhaps the final outcome will turn out better then the current status that somehow ended up giving Iran control over the strait of Hormuz and letting them collect toll.
 
KJE81 said:
I think that Germany is currently aspiring to take over from the US in Nato if Trump were to decide to leave, at least their current build up is quite massive, if I understand it correctly they are undergoing their largest buildup since the cold war. From currently about 90 billion USD to 152 billion USD by 2029. Apparently this will put them at number 4 of global military spending.

Regardless I guess that building up simply for defending europe would not require the levels of military spending that the US does, since there would be no need for a global blue water navy, really no need for carrier strike groups or other forces ment for global force projection. I assume that europe would focus on defending europe not to be able to project power into other regions.
Click to expand...
The problem with Germany “taking over” from the US is that even if they stay the course and spend the projected $120b and become the 4th largest global spender on their military is…

The chasm between 1 and 4 is outrageously vast.. and NATO even with Germany and the combined militaries of the rest of Europe would be a shell of its former self and lack any real deterrent against powers 1, 2, or 3…

The math is simple.. the US alone spends 62% of the defense dollars spent by NATO nations..

If it’s gone, NATO is left with 38%… if every remaining NATO nation doubled their spending you’re still left with 76% of what NATO once was… and we all know there is no way in hell all of Europe doubles its defense spending…

So even with a much, much stronger Germany, if the US is gone, NATO isnt much more than a shell of its former self…

And let’s assume all of Europe doubles defense spending… that’s all and well in the short term… but it’s not like all that equipment shows up overnight or all those additional troops become not just proficient and trained, but also experienced over night… or nuclear capacity gets expanded quickly…

It takes decades…

So how does NATO defend itself against current threats for the next 20-30 years?
 
Accidental Villain said:
Hopelessly naive are you not...
The Ukrainians have at least 800.000+ soldiers fighting like lions. Its absolutely staggering seeing how they are slaughtering the orchs on a daily basis. Implying our own woke military is capable of doing the same at least in the short term is naive. Sweden have about twice as many radicalized lunatics and hardened gang criminals as you have soldiers have you not..but worry not, we are trailing just behind here in No way.
I hardly think the US will let go the strategic locations around the northern Atlantic, North west passage. Threatening to withdraw from NATO is Trumps way of putting pressure on our elected morons. Europe should have started arming up in 2018. The signs were clear and they did`nt.
I just got my youngest son out of the military before he committed to anything and I`m very very happy about that.
Click to expand...
I can well understand that you got your son out of there so as not to sacrifice him for the imperial ambitions of "our elected idiots" (this applies to both sides of the globe).I don't mean to imply that @KJE81 is naive.I share his opinion.
NATO is essentially dead.
It's like a marriage: your wife tells you you don't listen to her when she needs you, and you reply: "Read our marriage contract; there are certain rules in there."
You can safely forget about such a partnership.
The sooner the Americans leave—a difficult and painful process, certainly—the sooner Europe will grow up.
In Europe, nobody believes that Trump would stand by us in an emergency.Unless he comes up with some kind of ransom demand that we have to fulfill.
Pax Americana is history.
 
I for one hopes NATO survives this pressure test. The US benefits from having our presence and assets spread out across the globe. There are strategic benefits to that.

Also, some of our NATO members have skills that we can use, and if there is ever a Third World war, we will need be everybody.

Perhaps the temporary answer is certain member nations are excluded until they stop spending their money on ridiculous, childish, fantasy programs and start defending themselves. then they are free to join again. IF voted back in.
 
Accidental Villain said:
Hopelessly naive are you not...
The Ukrainians have at least 800.000+ soldiers fighting like lions. Its absolutely staggering seeing how they are slaughtering the orchs on a daily basis. Implying our own woke military is capable of doing the same at least in the short term is naive. Sweden have about twice as many radicalized lunatics and hardened gang criminals as you have soldiers have you not..but worry not, we are trailing just behind here in No way.
I hardly think the US will let go the strategic locations around the northern Atlantic, North west passage. Threatening to withdraw from NATO is Trumps way of putting pressure on our elected morons. Europe should have started arming up in 2018. The signs were clear and they did`nt.
I just got my youngest son out of the military before he committed to anything and I`m very very happy about that.
Click to expand...
Elected morons. Finally a Norwegian on AH that gets it. Thank you, Sir!
 
Altitude sickness said:
I think you meant to say. “ no more tax cuts for the people paying most of the taxes”

By the way. All of you Bernie Bros and AOC acolytes can pay as much tax as you like. Throw an extra check in the mail to the IRS if you feel they should have more to waste.

My ask is to show me where all the money is going now before you ask for more.
Click to expand...
Yes, in the USA, the poor don’t pay much income tax and actually get “credits” which amounts to another welfare check instead of them writing a check. 30% pay no federal income tax due to credits and deductions, while the top 50% of earners pay 97% of the taxes. The bottom 50% pay just 3% yet some idiots still think we should the bigger earners even more!
 
mdwest said:
The problem with Germany “taking over” from the US is that even if they stay the course and spend the projected $120b and become the 4th largest global spender on their military is…

The chasm between 1 and 4 is outrageously vast.. and NATO even with Germany and the combined militaries of the rest of Europe would be a shell of its former self and lack any real deterrent against powers 1, 2, or 3…

The math is simple.. the US alone spends 62% of the defense dollars spent by NATO nations..

If it’s gone, NATO is left with 38%… if every remaining NATO nation doubled their spending you’re still left with 76% of what NATO once was… and we all know there is no way in hell all of Europe doubles its defense spending…

So even with a much, much stronger Germany, if the US is gone, NATO isnt much more than a shell of its former self…

And let’s assume all of Europe doubles defense spending… that’s all and well in the short term… but it’s not like all that equipment shows up overnight or all those additional troops become not just proficient and trained, but also experienced over night… or nuclear capacity gets expanded quickly…

It takes decades…

So how does NATO defend itself against current threats for the next 20-30 years?
Click to expand...
I dont question that the US spends more on its military then anybody else, but I also dont think that the US in the event of a war in Europe in which the US would send everything they have to Europe therefore I was thinking that perhaps Europe does not has to make up for all of the 919 billion USD that the US spends on its military in order to defend Europe without the US.

Regarding the military budget of the US I remember someone posting here that it was some sort of a warning signal when a great powers cost of covering interest rates on the national debt exceeds their military budget, how far away is this point for the US today?
 
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KJE81 said:
I dont question that the US spends more on its military then anybody else, but I also dont think that the US in the event of a war in Europe in which the US would send everything they have to Europe therefore I was thinking that perhaps Europe does not has to make up for all of the 919 billion USD that the US spends on its military in order to defend Europe without the US.

Regarding the military budget of the US I remember someone posting here that it was some sort of a warning signal when a great powers cost of covering interest rates on the national debt exceeds their military budget, how far away is this point for the US today?
Click to expand...

An inconvenient truth is many of the NATO nations actually own a shocking amount of U.S. debt.
The UK usually holds the 2nd largest amount of Treasuries.
Canada, France, Belgium, and Norway. Also own huge amounts of U.S. debt.

Which they buy for their benefit and ours. But they hold a lot of leverage with that debt.
 
KJE81 said:
Regarding the military budget of the US I remember someone posting here that it was some sort of a warning signal when a great powers cost of covering interest rates on the national debt exceeds their military budget, how far away is this point for the US today?
Click to expand...

Operating at a deficit is operating at a deficit, no matter what drives the spending that exceeds the ability to generate income (doesnt matter if the money is being spent on the military, social welfare programs, or anything else)..

The US is currently running a about a 5 3/4% deficit (clearly a bad thing)..

That said.. so is most of Europe..

Europe is just spending its money on things other than its military.. if it ramps up its military then it has three choices.. run at an even higher deficit, cut other programs that its citizens want to pay for the military, or raise taxes even higher than they already are...

Romania is currently running at a 7.3% deficit
Poland 5.8%
France 5.8%
Belgium 4.9%
Slovakia 5.5%
Turkey 4.9%
UK 4.3%
Austria 4.5%
Hungary 4.7%
North Macedonia 4.7%

etc etc etc...

There are only a handful of countries in Europe operating on a surplus.. and only 4 with a substantial surplus.. they are Moldova and Cypress (both very small economies with relatively little impact on Europe at large), Denmark, and Norway...
 
Big_Easy said:
Unfortunately since most of the house is gerrymandered, there won't be large swings in representation anymore. And there are only 2-3 senate republicans that stand a chance of loosing this time around. They'll most likely loose the house, but probably still hold the senate. On the plus side, that means no more tax cuts for the rich.
Click to expand...
LOL.....No more tax cuts for the rich?
Just more excessive wasteful spending, funneling money into shell NGO' s, and kickbacks into Democrat pockets and slush funds
 
Foxi said:
I can well understand that you got your son out of there so as not to sacrifice him for the imperial ambitions of "our elected idiots" (this applies to both sides of the globe).I don't mean to imply that @KJE81 is naive.I share his opinion.
NATO is essentially dead.
It's like a marriage: your wife tells you you don't listen to her when she needs you, and you reply: "Read our marriage contract; there are certain rules in there."
You can safely forget about such a partnership.
The sooner the Americans leave—a difficult and painful process, certainly—the sooner Europe will grow up.
In Europe, nobody believes that Trump would stand by us in an emergency.Unless he comes up with some kind of ransom demand that we have to fulfill.
Pax Americana is history.
Click to expand...
Well, my son largely came to the conclusion by himself. We had a long talk in May last year because he was offered a place at a military academy under a 6 year contract I believe and he had concerns so to speak. Some smaller, some big ones, some discussed in this thread. He is an elite athlete and was initially sent to a mil unit he explicitly had said he did not want to serve with..so they sent him there anyhow. So there was a lack of trust there for sure. That`s the biggest concern he had I believe. He declined of course and stayed with his unit till the end. He is decorated, was proud anyways to serve in this unit so yeah.. Now it will be a civilian education/university in the fall and I`ll say that`s a good decision.
 
mdwest said:
Operating at a deficit is operating at a deficit, no matter what drives the spending that exceeds the ability to generate income (doesnt matter if the money is being spent on the military, social welfare programs, or anything else)..

The US is currently running a about a 5 3/4% deficit (clearly a bad thing)..

That said.. so is most of Europe..

Europe is just spending its money on things other than its military.. if it ramps up its military then it has three choices.. run at an even higher deficit, cut other programs that its citizens want to pay for the military, or raise taxes even higher than they already are...

Romania is currently running at a 7.3% deficit
Poland 5.8%
France 5.8%
Belgium 4.9%
Slovakia 5.5%
Turkey 4.9%
UK 4.3%
Austria 4.5%
Hungary 4.7%
North Macedonia 4.7%

etc etc etc...

There are only a handful of countries in Europe operating on a surplus.. and only 4 with a substantial surplus.. they are Moldova and Cypress (both very small economies with relatively little impact on Europe at large), Denmark, and Norway...
Click to expand...
Thank you for the run-through, I must confess that I put your numbers through Copilot, since I dont had the time to Google everything, and everything checked out just right, your knowledge of these things are impressive.
Copilot did had an interesting note I dont know if its correct or not, but for some reason it seems like the US still has a higher interest burden then the european nations you cited above. I am curious as to why that is if someone on the forum knows? Different ways of financing the debt or something else?

These are the numbers Copilot gave:
How does the interest burden in the US compared to the European countries listed:

US interest payments (% of GDP): 3.15%​

Euro area average: ~1.9%​

Among your list:
CountryInterest burden vs US
FranceLower
BelgiumLower
AustriaMuch lower
SlovakiaLower (Eurozone average applies)
PolandLower
UKLower (UK ~2.4–2.6% GDP)
North MacedoniaLower
TurkeySimilar or slightly higher
HungarySimilar (one of the few close to US)
RomaniaLikely lower, but data not retrieved

​

The United States pays a significantly higher share of its economy in interest than almost all European countries on your list. Only Hungary and Turkey are in the same range. Everyone else is well below the US. This is why analysts talk about US interest costs as a “warning signal”: the US is now spending more on interest than on defense R&D, veterans’ benefits, or most federal agencies — and is on track to surpass the entire defense budget.
 
mdwest said:
The problem with Germany “taking over” from the US is that even if they stay the course and spend the projected $120b and become the 4th largest global spender on their military is…

The chasm between 1 and 4 is outrageously vast.. and NATO even with Germany and the combined militaries of the rest of Europe would be a shell of its former self and lack any real deterrent against powers 1, 2, or 3…

The math is simple.. the US alone spends 62% of the defense dollars spent by NATO nations..

If it’s gone, NATO is left with 38%… if every remaining NATO nation doubled their spending you’re still left with 76% of what NATO once was… and we all know there is no way in hell all of Europe doubles its defense spending…

So even with a much, much stronger Germany, if the US is gone, NATO isnt much more than a shell of its former self…

And let’s assume all of Europe doubles defense spending… that’s all and well in the short term… but it’s not like all that equipment shows up overnight or all those additional troops become not just proficient and trained, but also experienced over night… or nuclear capacity gets expanded quickly…

It takes decades…

So how does NATO defend itself against current threats for the next 20-30 years?
Click to expand...
Excellent analysis, I completely agree.
What many here are thinking but don't dare to say out loud: in Europe, we don't currently see Putin as the problem (to put it bluntly: what business is it of Europe what happens in the Donbas, or ever has been? Ukraine is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world and sells donated military equipment all over the globe; sympathy for them is limited).Your president issues more threats in one week (not only against us) than Putin has in 20 years.Canada is on his list (a NATO member).Greenland/Denmark (dito).Tariffs.Withdrawal from NATO (by the way, NATO is not an intervention force, never has been).He threatens the Pope.The annihilation of Iran's civilization...Doesn't anyone here notice the international shift away from the USA?The former liberating power of the world?Is all of this supposed to go to the dogs?
 
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