Politics

 
As I feared, this war is going to change NOTHING internally in Iran. Sure, the faces will change, but the song remains the same. We need to stop telling unarmed people to rise up against a Government that has no problem shooting thousands of it's own citizens.

Mark my words, this War will NOT be won from 30,000ft.

This War will NOT be won by taking away the weapons or money from the current regime.

This War will NOT be won by a Brigade of Israeli or American Airborne troops dropped on Tehran.

By Won I mean the entire Government structure wiped out, the IRGC and it's subordinate militia forces eliminated. Anything less will show that the Islamic State of Iran was able to withstand the best the Zionists and the Great Satan could throw at them. The radicals will only be emboldened, and it will become even worse for the people of Iran.

It's also a safe bet both the Chinese and Russians are very closely studying our TTPs, and will soon attempt to develop countermeasures. If the Islamic Republic is allowed to remain, we'll not only have shot our bolt, but shown our cards.

This War will only be won when large swathes of the Iranian population are willing to take up arms and fight for their freedom.

There are two main ways this may be possible.

1. Crown Prince Pahlavi form's an armed Militia to topple the Islamic Republic.

2. Allied States in the region supply weapons and training to Iranian dissidents.

I fully understand that introducing an armed group into Iran will mean Civil War and a possible bloodbath, but that has already been the case, and is likely to be inevitable anyway.

Arm the People of Iran and let them do the job.
 
skydiver386 said:
As I feared, this war is going to change NOTHING internally in Iran. Sure, the faces will change, but the song remains the same. We need to stop telling unarmed people to rise up against a Government that has no problem shooting thousands of it's own citizens.

Mark my words, this War will NOT be won from 30,000ft.

This War will NOT be won by taking away the weapons or money from the current regime.

This War will NOT be won by a Brigade of Israeli or American Airborne troops dropped on Tehran.

By Won I mean the entire Government structure wiped out, the IRGC and it's subordinate militia forces eliminated. Anything less will show that the Islamic State of Iran was able to withstand the best the Zionists and the Great Satan could throw at them. The radicals will only be emboldened, and it will become even worse for the people of Iran.

It's also a safe bet both the Chinese and Russians are very closely studying our TTPs, and will soon attempt to develop countermeasures. If the Islamic Republic is allowed to remain, we'll not only have shot our bolt, but shown our cards.

This War will only be won when large swathes of the Iranian population are willing to take up arms and fight for their freedom.

There are two main ways this may be possible.

1. Crown Prince Pahlavi form's an armed Militia to topple the Islamic Republic.

2. Allied States in the region supply weapons and training to Iranian dissidents.

I fully understand that introducing an armed group into Iran will mean Civil War and a possible bloodbath, but that has already been the case, and is likely to be inevitable anyway.

Arm the People of Iran and let them do the job.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, one has to have an organized resistance and reasonable safe area in which to arm such a force. Such a movement obviously does not exist yet, or what did exist may have had the guts ripped out of it six weeks ago. The Crown Prince will continue to safely offer his services as an interim head of state, but he isn't going to be secretly dropped into Iran to try and actually organize a revolt.

We are only in the 12th day of this war. To believe there should be some sort of decisive result this quickly strikes me as rather unrealistic. The first 48 hours were largely devoted to neutralizing Iran's air defense systems and command and control nodes; and thereafter, I suspect 75% of our conventional sorties are playing whack a mole with ballistic missile launchers. Throw in irradicating the Iranian Navy and I would expect we are just beginning to address the strategic arms production target list.

There are indeed recent Iranian refugees in the Gulf States. Many are in the UAE. Those that have fled Iran during the initial revolution are largely in the West. The military age Iranians in the West are primarily second generation, their parents having fled forty years ago, and are more Western than Iranian. Some in the Gulf region would be of military age and might be motivated to form some sort of revolutionary cadre, but that would take time. Then we would have to get them there - ala Bay of Pigs?

Finally, Russia's conventional capabilities are so weakened it matters not a wit what they believe they can learn from this conflict. Rather, I suspect the lessons China and Russia are most closely taking to heart is that the gap between their conventional forces and those of the US are far greater than they imagined. That could have real value with respect to the Baltic States and Taiwan.

I have no way of knowing, but I suspect we are hoping (which is never really a good strategy) that a more pragmatic element of the existing regime will take actual power. Since we are hoping, I personally pin mine on the regular army, but it might be as simple as palace coup sending the Mullahs back to Qom to more carefully study the Koran.

I believe the Pentagon, if not everyone in the administration still agree that T.R. Fehrenbach's observation is just as relevant today as it was in 1950, "you may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men in the mud. ”
The administration clearly has no intention of invading Iran with sufficient combat power to topple the government and "keep it for civilization." Rather, I think the administration has set the bar of success pretty low. Destroy their current capacity to build a nuclear weapon, destroy their current stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and dramatically degrade their ability to reconstitute those programs. That would effectively undermine Iran's hegemonic ambitions for 10-20 years depending upon the rate of recovery. From my perspective, that conclusion however limited, would be far better than we were 12 days ago.

Of course, every critic of the administration will call that a failure, but that will likely be the case of any end state short of the spontaneous birth of Jeffersonian democracy in Tehran.
 
Red Leg said:
Unfortunately, one has to have an organized resistance and reasonable safe area in which to arm such a force. Such a movement obviously does not exist yet, or what did exist may have had the guts ripped out of it six weeks ago. The Crown Prince will continue to safely offer his services as an interim head of state, but he isn't going to be secretly dropped into Iran to try and actually organize a revolt.

We are only in the 12th day of this war. To believe there should be some sort of decisive result this quickly strikes me as rather unrealistic. The first 48 hours were largely devoted to neutralizing Iran's air defense systems and command and control nodes; and thereafter, I suspect 75% of our conventional sorties are playing whack a mole with ballistic missile launchers. Throw in irradicating the Iranian Navy and I would expect we are just beginning to address the strategic arms production target list.

There are indeed recent Iranian refugees in the Gulf States. Many are in the UAE. Those that have fled Iran during the initial revolution are largely in the West. The military age Iranians in the West are primarily second generation, their parents having fled forty years ago, and are more Western than Iranian. Some in the Gulf region would be of military age and might be motivated to form some sort of revolutionary cadre, but that would take time. Then we would have to get them there - ala Bay of Pigs?

Finally, Russia's conventional capabilities are so weakened it matters not a wit what they believe they can learn from this conflict. Rather, I suspect the lessons China and Russia are most closely taking to heart is that the gap between their conventional forces and those of the US are far greater than they imagined. That could have real value with respect to the Baltic States and Taiwan.

I have no way of knowing, but I suspect we are hoping (which is never really a good strategy) that a more pragmatic element of the existing regime will take actual power. Since we are hoping, I personally pin mine on the regular army, but it might be as simple as palace coup sending the Mullahs back to Qom to more carefully study the Koran.

I believe the Pentagon, if not everyone in the administration still agree that T.R. Fehrenbach's observation is just as relevant today as it was in 1950, "you may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men in the mud. ”
The administration clearly has no intention of invading Iran with sufficient combat power to topple the government and "keep it for civilization." Rather, I think the administration has set the bar of success pretty low. Destroy their current capacity to build a nuclear weapon, destroy their current stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and dramatically degrade their ability to reconstitute those programs. That would effectively undermine Iran's hegemonic ambitions for 10-20 years depending upon the rate of recovery. From my perspective, that conclusion however limited, would be far better than we were 12 days ago.

Of course, every critic of the administration will call that a failure, but that will likely be the case of any end state short of the spontaneous birth of Jeffersonian democracy in Tehran.
Click to expand...
That’s a very concise and insightful summary.

The question I have is if sending the Mullahs back to Qom is realistic. I don’t know but my impression is that the religious zealotry is deep enough within a large enough segment that I don’t know if they can happen absent a significant civil war. Others would know of it is possible for our actions to decapitate enough of that segment of leadership to achieve it without us having to find a way to arm and prop up an alternative.
 
Russ16 said:
That’s a very concise and insightful summary.

The question I have is if sending the Mullahs back to Qom is realistic. I don’t know but my impression is that the religious zealotry is deep enough within a large enough segment that I don’t know if they can happen absent a significant civil war. Others would know of it is possible for our actions to decapitate enough of that segment of leadership to achieve it without us having to find a way to arm and prop up an alternative.
Click to expand...
We can't send them back. The only group that could would be new, largely secular leadership. If that does not emerge, then defanging them for a number of years will have to suffice until we have to do it again.

Mark Halperin (far from a right winger) had a very astute observation on Two-Way this morning that I think captures what I was trying to say in my posting above.

“You can criticize this 100 ways to Sunday, but if the metric of success… was to do as much as possible to degrade Iran’s capabilities — naval, missile, nuclear, command and control, terror — with as little cost and blood and treasure as possible, if he stopped today, he would have succeeded more than every other president combined.”
 
Last edited:
Red Leg said:
The administration clearly has no intention of invading Iran with sufficient combat power to topple the government and "keep it for civilization." Rather, I think the administration has set the bar of success pretty low. Destroy their current capacity to build a nuclear weapon, destroy their current stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and dramatically degrade their ability to reconstitute those programs. That would effectively undermine Iran's hegemonic ambitions for 10-20 years depending upon the rate of recovery. From my perspective, that conclusion however limited, would be far better than we were 12 days ago.
Click to expand...

My view, especially seeing that Iran is hitting infrastructure in the Gulf states and threatening to start attacking financial centers is a scorched Earth approach.

If we wipe out Kharg island, the refineries and pipelines I think we could set them back a lot more than 10-20 years.

Yes, it might cause a little bit of pain, but the biggest pain would be China anyway that has been buying 70% or so of Iranian oil defying the sanctions. I think the Gulf states would be able to pick up the slack in regard to oil that was being sold legally.

Of course, that also means we'd have to keep pounding their missile and drone stockpiles until they stop attacking.
 
Tanks said:
My view, especially seeing that Iran is hitting infrastructure in the Gulf states and threatening to start attacking financial centers is a scorched Earth approach.

If we wipe out Kharg island, the refineries and pipelines I think we could set them back a lot more than 10-20 years.

Yes, it might cause a little bit of pain, but the biggest pain would be China anyway that has been buying 70% or so of Iranian oil defying the sanctions. I think the Gulf states would be able to pick up the slack in regard to oil that was being sold legally.

Of course, that also means we'd have to keep pounding their missile and drone stockpiles until they stop attacking.
Click to expand...
Unless the iran retaliate in same way. Send drones across the gulf to oilfields and refineries.
Then entire area is set back for 50 years.

Be reminded what Ukranian seaborn and aerial drones did to Russian fleet in black sea.
And oilfields across the gulf in allied states are sitting ducks,

I work there on oilfields, on jack up rig, and I am under my govt instructions not to travel there now.
This means my job is on hold, till situation stabilizes.

As a ship master, I passed Hormuz many times. 2006, 2007. My first command.
It is shallow, and narrow.
They dont need mines to close. (mines just sound good for mass media impact)

Mines are easiest to remove later, technology exists for ages.

All they need to do is sink, good size vessel to sea bottom in shipping lanes. They can sink some of their own scrap vessels
Rescue operation would be impossible to pick up from seabed in wartime conditions. Its is enormous salvage operation

The navigational shipping lanes within the Strait of Hormuz are generally 46 to 61 meters (approximately 150 to 200 feet) deep.
Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) typically have a fully loaded draft of 20 to 23 meters (approx. 65–75 feet).
Air draft of container vsl, or bulker, (height from waterline to the highest point) for these vessels often exceeds 60-70 meters.

Do the math.
This thing must deescalate asap.
 
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Hiroshima was a successful attempt to avoid the bloodshed which would have been necessary to take mainland Japan with conventional war tactics.
In order to prevent bloodshed longterm and bring the war to a quick close, why not cut off food supplies coming into Iran. You might be able to hold intercepted supplies for humanitarian purposes AFTER Iran capitulates. Iran has more food insecurity now than at any time in recent history.
One might also need to have a plan to control a temporary mass migration out of Iran and toward food.
War is truly hell....
 
Tanks said:
Of course, that also means we'd have to keep pounding their missile and drone stockpiles until they stop attacking.
Click to expand...

mark-hunter said:
Unless the iran retaliate in same way. Send drones across the gulf to oilfields and refineries.
Click to expand...
They are already doing that. Hence, my comment above.
 
steve white said:
Hiroshima was a successful attempt to avoid the bloodshed which would have been necessary to take mainland Japan with conventional war tactics.
In order to prevent bloodshed longterm and bring the war to a quick close, why not cut off food supplies coming into Iran. You might be able to hold intercepted supplies for humanitarian purposes AFTER Iran capitulates. Iran has more food insecurity now than at any time in recent history.
One might also need to have a plan to control a temporary mass migration out of Iran and toward food.
War is truly hell....
Click to expand...
Even if you could completely close Iran's borders, any food inside the country would be used to feed Government Officials, Military and Police forces, while the civilians you are trying to help would be the ones left to starve.
 
skydiver386 said:
Even if you could completely close Iran's borders, any food inside the country would be used to feed Government Officials, Military and Police forces, while the civilians you are trying to help would be the ones left to starve.
Click to expand...
No different than Somalia, Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, Myanmar, etc..

It is sadly not unusual or uncommon for despot Muslim governments to weaponize food against their own populations.
 
Tanks said:
My view, especially seeing that Iran is hitting infrastructure in the Gulf states and threatening to start attacking financial centers is a scorched Earth approach.

If we wipe out Kharg island, the refineries and pipelines I think we could set them back a lot more than 10-20 years.

Yes, it might cause a little bit of pain, but the biggest pain would be China anyway that has been buying 70% or so of Iranian oil defying the sanctions. I think the Gulf states would be able to pick up the slack in regard to oil that was being sold legally.

Of course, that also means we'd have to keep pounding their missile and drone stockpiles until they stop attacking.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that cause a big problem though....poverty would increase massively, and you have the potential of turning Iran into another Libya.. Syria....Iraq where the radicals can have a field day recruiting youths who see no future into joining their militias etc.....one of the problems in Iran is there is a large part of the population who are staunch Muslims, who follow the "supreme leader" and the rest of the crew who hold power without question.....
 
steve white said:
In order to prevent bloodshed longterm and bring the war to a quick close, why not cut off food supplies coming into Iran.
Click to expand...
You are joking, right?

The effect is opposite.
Iran feeds gulf countries with agricultural products. They dont need food imports

www.fao.org

Iran at a glance | FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations

Iran at a glance| FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations
www.fao.org www.fao.org


qoute/unqoute
Iran’s proximity to a large regional market, that of its neighboring countries as well as Persian Gulf countries some of which lack any agricultural potential, and having adequate land and air transit infrastructure has made Iran one of the top exporters of agricultural products exporting a total of USD 5.2 billion (6.37% of Iran’s total non-oil exports) in the fiscal year ending March 2022.

Or... :

Or..:
theconversation.com

Strait of Hormuz: Gulf states’ food security is at immediate risk but wider shortages could push up consumer prices globally

Gulf states depend on food imported via the strait – and shipping surcharges could raise the cost of consumer goods around the world.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
 
mdwest said:
No different than Somalia, Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, Myanmar, etc..

It is sadly not unusual or uncommon for despot Muslim governments to weaponize food against their own populations.
Click to expand...
I would say it’s more of an Authoritative leadership thing as opposed to religion. Look at the Holodomor, or even the Bengal Famine (one of many under British rule). Anyone with that much power will always ensure those loyal get taken care of first.

Why are so many Muslim countries non-democratic? Does it have to be with them being so young they haven’t made it through the revolution cycle?
 
Last edited:
mark-hunter said:
You are joking, right?

The effect is opposite.
Iran feeds gulf countries with agricultural products. They dont need food imports

www.fao.org

Iran at a glance | FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations

Iran at a glance| FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations
www.fao.org www.fao.org


qoute/unqoute
Iran’s proximity to a large regional market, that of its neighboring countries as well as Persian Gulf countries some of which lack any agricultural potential, and having adequate land and air transit infrastructure has made Iran one of the top exporters of agricultural products exporting a total of USD 5.2 billion (6.37% of Iran’s total non-oil exports) in the fiscal year ending March 2022.

Or... :

Or..:
theconversation.com

Strait of Hormuz: Gulf states’ food security is at immediate risk but wider shortages could push up consumer prices globally

Gulf states depend on food imported via the strait – and shipping surcharges could raise the cost of consumer goods around the world.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
Click to expand...
Why they have severe water shortages.....used for agricultural purposes regardless of the environmental cost
 
mark-hunter said:
You are joking, right?

The effect is opposite.
Iran feeds gulf countries with agricultural products. They dont need food imports

www.fao.org

Iran at a glance | FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations

Iran at a glance| FAO in Iran | Food and Agriculture Organzation of the United Nations
www.fao.org www.fao.org


qoute/unqoute
Iran’s proximity to a large regional market, that of its neighboring countries as well as Persian Gulf countries some of which lack any agricultural potential, and having adequate land and air transit infrastructure has made Iran one of the top exporters of agricultural products exporting a total of USD 5.2 billion (6.37% of Iran’s total non-oil exports) in the fiscal year ending March 2022.

Or... :

Or..:
theconversation.com

Strait of Hormuz: Gulf states’ food security is at immediate risk but wider shortages could push up consumer prices globally

Gulf states depend on food imported via the strait – and shipping surcharges could raise the cost of consumer goods around the world.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
Click to expand...
There crops probably aren’t roundup ready?
The USA might be able to handle the food supply ( hell right now we are making ethanol or just dumping crops on the ground to rot when it can’t be used for livestock or shipped over seas)
F we could lower food prices by 1/2-3/4 but it would kill the farmers here ( who survived on government subsidies for decades)
I don’t really believe in using famine or nukes to make war anyway.
 
Reading the last two weeks of this thread and all this talk of petrol, fertilizer and food got me to wondering when that 30 tons of NH4NO3 will unfortunately turn back up.


www.jalopnik.com

Over 60,000 Pounds Of Ammonium Nitrate Goes Missing From Train - Jalopnik

Thirty tons of a potentially explosive chemical went missing from a sealed train car in April, and no one has any clue where it went.
www.jalopnik.com www.jalopnik.com
 
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