Politics

Do you or your contacts have any idea about how loyal the 80 million population is to the Supreme Leader? Of course I have heard about the protests in Iran but I have no idea how widespread the sentiments are in Iran. I have heard from US hunters that hunted Iran not too long ago that the people were very friendly and, dare I say, pro-US.
The IDF reported last nights defense cost Isreal around a billion dollars.

A smoking Iranian refinery / production facility or two would be a solid deterrence of future Iranian attacks, IMO. Hit their revenue producing assets and make the regime loose support.

I believe there is indeed a lot of descension within Iran. What I do not know, is the reaction of that population to being attacked by the United States. I would suggest even the sagest analyst in CIA, State, or academia has no idea either. However, history offers us a lot of clues. The German Blitz of the UK, the American and British bombardment of Germany, and the US strategic bombardment of Japan (less the two nuclear bombs) not only did not damage civilian morale, but actually served to solidify it and unite the targeted populations for the duration of the war. The same thing is going on in Ukraine right now where they have been under missile and drone bombardment for two years. I think it is quite likely any punitive raids launched by us would be as likely unite Iran as divide it.
 
“Religion was introduced to this world as a means of bringing peace upon mankind. But if history has taught us anything, then it is that more people have been killed in the name of religion than for perhaps all other reasons combined… ever since time immemorial.”

- My father (although I’m sure some famous author probably said it first)

My heart goes out for all the poor Israelis and all the poor Palestinians who are getting slaughtered like hides of beef because of their two governments clashing.

I’m a war veteran, but I must say that war is truly disgusting (although sometimes necessary). Old men start it, young men fight it & everybody loses in the end.
 
One other thought. If I am correct with respect to Israel's range challenge in striking back at Iran, it may be in their interests not to do so. They have effectively demonstrated that they are immune to Iran's bluster while their strike capability remains an unknown to Iran. The Israeli government and the IDF may well determine it is in their interests to keep it that way. Netanyahu can even call off the expected retaliation by blaming it on US pressure.
 
One other thought. If I am correct with respect to Israel's range challenge in striking back at Iran, it may be in their interests not to do so. They have effectively demonstrated that they are immune to Iran's bluster while their strike capability remains an unknown to Iran. The Israeli government and the IDF may well determine it is in their interests to keep it that way. Netanyahu can even call off the expected retaliation by blaming it on US pressure.
If I may, this the most sense to me right now. They’re too busy elsewhere IMO
 
Looks like Israel has already hit some Hezbollah locations. Hitting Iranian surrogates hard might be the direction they take.

Also, Israel still wants to eradicate Hamas from Gaza and escalating the situation might be spreading themselves too thin.

In regard to Western countries hitting Iranian infrastructure like water and electricity. That would make sure the anti-Western view solidifies. Remember 9/11? The whole country, Democrats and Republicans united against an external threat.
 
As Winston Churchill said, “without victory, there is no survival.”

However, I see no reason why victory has to mean immediate decimation of Iran at this very moment. Israel knows well that patience is a virtue.

Still, there must, and will, be consequences. I trust Israel and our military to determine how best to keep the people of Israel safe, both now and in the future, from Iran.
 
... My wife and I have 18 years of college between us so we both read and have thousands of books in the house and my boys do not read. I can't imagine any of their friends do either. It's a terrible shame but it is what it is.
Gotta start them young.
My grandkids' night routine.
1713111764848.jpeg


My older granddaughter got into trouble at age 4 when she ordered a physical book from Amazon on her mother's iPad (she was using some educational software on it at the time) without informing my daughter. :ROFLMAO:
 
“Religion was introduced to this world as a means of bringing peace upon mankind. But if history has taught us anything, then it is that more people have been killed in the name of religion than for perhaps all other reasons combined… ever since time immemorial.”

- My father (although I’m sure some famous author probably said it first)

My heart goes out for all the poor Israelis and all the poor Palestinians who are getting slaughtered like hides of beef because of their two governments clashing.

I’m a war veteran, but I must say that war is truly disgusting (although sometimes necessary). Old men start it, young men fight it & everybody loses in the end.

Except those who supply the arms and munitions, and the politicians they can buy.
 
And then what? Suppose Iran doesn't quit. Its population hunkers down rather than revolt. Suppose their response is to activate every cell available to them to attack the West asymmetrically. Bombs, chemicals, anthrax - you name it.

Because that wouldn't be symmetric. The inference you're describing as an alternative is that "they shoot 500 rockets, one hits, we send one back that hits, thus we're even-steven".

The cost in hundreds of millions to prevent their 500 rockets from hitting targets is an asymmetric war of attrition, they spend 50 iranian pesos and we spend a half billion US dollars to knock them down with cooperation from several countries.

What response would you propose that would prevent this perpetual tit for tat that costs them little and costs us a lot each time?
 
Gotta start them young.
My grandkids' night routine.
View attachment 599365

My older granddaughter got into trouble at age 4 when she ordered a physical book from Amazon on her mother's iPad (she was using some educational software on it at the time) without informing my daughter. :ROFLMAO:


Not to pop the balloon, but its rather interesting how unimportant books are for children. (hear me out, it sounds crazy, and I used to believe it).

In the book freakanomics, they analyzed the behaviors of successful people and what they did for their children. Particularly, reading to them each night, going to museums, the theater, opera, and other culturally enriching activities. The stats panned out that it didn't make one drop of difference whatsoever in any of those cases, particularly with reading.

What was the deciding factor was rather astounding: Homes that contained hundreds of books resulted in children that performed better and succeeded more across their lifetimes, even controlling for parental wealth. It appears that the correlation and inference that defines parents that own many books is a greater predictor of outcomes than the parents that read to their kids and pushed cultural experiences on them.

The author's conjecture and one I completely agree with is this hypothesis: Owning piles of books correlates with intellectual curiosity, and whatever lightning in a bottle that creates rubs off on kids, even if they don't open up and read any of the 10,000 volumes on the shelves of the home library.

We spend a ton of time over here discussing world religion, culture, geography, history, and the last 2500 years of politics. We also cook extensively at home and even that view into culture creates a lot of discussion. In our own naive bubble, we assumed what we discuss and do in our own home is common amongst middle class and better intact families, but it isn't.

I'll never forget being on a roadtrip with one of my kids and one of his friends. We were talking about Chernobyl, the HBO movie, RBMK reactors, Ukrainian politics, and all the other interesting points called out in the miniseries. About 20 minutes into a pretty enthusiastic conversation between me and my son, his friend said "my head hurts, I don't want to talk about this stuff anymore". The remaining hour consisted of discussing video games and other drivel. That was my a-ha moment, those kids aren't operating from the same curiosity about the world, even though by irony the other kid was a prolific reader by any measure.
 
Not to pop the balloon, but its rather interesting how unimportant books are for children. (hear me out, it sounds crazy, and I used to believe it).

In the book freakanomics, they analyzed the behaviors of successful people and what they did for their children. Particularly, reading to them each night, going to museums, the theater, opera, and other culturally enriching activities. The stats panned out that it didn't make one drop of difference whatsoever in any of those cases, particularly with reading.

What was the deciding factor was rather astounding: Homes that contained hundreds of books resulted in children that performed better and succeeded more across their lifetimes, even controlling for parental wealth. It appears that the correlation and inference that defines parents that own many books is a greater predictor of outcomes than the parents that read to their kids and pushed cultural experiences on them.

The author's conjecture and one I completely agree with is this hypothesis: Owning piles of books correlates with intellectual curiosity, and whatever lightning in a bottle that creates rubs off on kids, even if they don't open up and read any of the 10,000 volumes on the shelves of the home library.

We spend a ton of time over here discussing world religion, culture, geography, history, and the last 2500 years of politics. We also cook extensively at home and even that view into culture creates a lot of discussion. In our own naive bubble, we assumed what we discuss and do in our own home is common amongst middle class and better intact families, but it isn't.

I'll never forget being on a roadtrip with one of my kids and one of his friends. We were talking about Chernobyl, the HBO movie, RBMK reactors, Ukrainian politics, and all the other interesting points called out in the miniseries. About 20 minutes into a pretty enthusiastic conversation between me and my son, his friend said "my head hurts, I don't want to talk about this stuff anymore". The remaining hour consisted of discussing video games and other drivel. That was my a-ha moment, those kids aren't operating from the same curiosity about the world, even though by irony the other kid was a prolific reader by any measure.
I do not disagree, but at least in my experience, the smartest people I know are also the most voracious readers.

I tutor high school and college kids, and it is so frustrating to tutor a kid in a literature class who is about to graduate high school but can barely read. As a country, we need to do better in our schools, but more importantly, in our communities and homes.
 
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I used to be a fan of Kinison, but I tried to listen to him recently and a lot of his material just does not hold up. Carlin, Bruce, and Pryor still hold up great.

Sacrilege I'm sure, but I find Pryor didn't age that well, not unlike Eddie Murphy's jokes, but its still okay. Lenny Bruce wasn't funny to begin with in my opinion, it's like listening to Bob Dylan because artsy people tell you its good even though you know its not.

But George Carlin? I'm convinced we'll listen to him in a hundred years and still be shocked how on point he is about the human condition. I truly believe his notoriety will hold him up to the same standard of humor as Mark Twain over the next century.
 
Sacrilege I'm sure, but I find Pryor didn't age that well, not unlike Eddie Murphy's jokes, but its still okay. Lenny Bruce wasn't funny to begin with in my opinion, it's like listening to Bob Dylan because artsy people tell you its good even though you know its not.

But George Carlin? I'm convinced we'll listen to him in a hundred years and still be shocked how on point he is about the human condition. I truly believe his notoriety will hold him up to the same standard of humor as Mark Twain over the next century.
Now I have to listen to Pryor today.

If you have not yet read Carlin’s autobiography “Last Words” I highly recommend it.

Bruce’s “How to Talk Dirty and Influence People” is also a great read. Even if you are not a fan, what he did for free speech cannot be overstated.
 
Now I have to listen to Pryor today.

If you have not yet read Carlin’s autobiography “Last Words” I highly recommend it.

Bruce’s “How to Talk Dirty and Influence People” is also a great read. Even if you are not a fan, what he did for free speech cannot be overstated.


I'll definitely check it out.

What I don't recommend you check out is the AI based comedy of George Carlin. Some talentless comedians used AI to analyze the news and analyze George Carlin's humor in order to create a comedy album. As you can imagine, the AI sounds just like George but nothing is funny, its all woke drivel operating under the assumption that George was woke and leftist when in fact he just hated group think and collectivism. Thankfully, George's daughter and his lifelong manager sued and won a judgement against the comedy special recently.
 
I'll definitely check it out.

What I don't recommend you check out is the AI based comedy of George Carlin. Some talentless comedians used AI to analyze the news and analyze George Carlin's humor in order to create a comedy album. As you can imagine, the AI sounds just like George but nothing is funny, its all woke drivel operating under the assumption that George was woke and leftist when in fact he just hated group think and collectivism. Thankfully, George's daughter and his lifelong manager sued and won a judgement against the comedy special recently.
Unfortunately, I already saw it. A depressing look at what an AI future could very well be.
 
Maybe it's due to my years (era) spent in military service. Maybe it's because Iran is a preverbial thorn in most every other nation's side. Maybe it's because of their continued anti semasism toward all other nations and their terrorist threat to the world at large.

IMPO, I have no qualms with wing tip to wing tip, nose to tail, stacked 3 high of B52s, B1s, (any and all means, and methods of delivery)(to include similar bombardment aircraft and air delivery systems of all ally nations), fully loaded with 1000 pound conventional bombs (non nuclear) stretching from border to border, 100% carpet bombing resulting in total and complete decimation of Iran. Followed by bulldozers to bury the entire country deeply under the ground. Total and complete sterilisation of the country.

IMPO, Iran is nothing more and nothing less than a terrorist nation and should be treated as such.

By setting such a precedence out of fear the people of other such terrorist nations' will then police themselves by destroying known terrorist and terrorist organizations within their respective country's to avoid such an onslaught from happening to them.
 
Because that wouldn't be symmetric. The inference you're describing as an alternative is that "they shoot 500 rockets, one hits, we send one back that hits, thus we're even-steven".

The cost in hundreds of millions to prevent their 500 rockets from hitting targets is an asymmetric war of attrition, they spend 50 iranian pesos and we spend a half billion US dollars to knock them down with cooperation from several countries.

What response would you propose that would prevent this perpetual tit for tat that costs them little and costs us a lot each time?
From whence this notion that this was a "cheap" Iranian attempt?

These were not Hamas rockets fired in the general direction of wherever. The cheapest were that Shahad jet powered drones with which Iran is supplying Russia. According to IDF sources, the Iranians launched 185 of these. They are very long range/endurance and very accurate. They are also very different from a Hamas rocket. Fortunately, common air defense systems under professional command and control, can deal with them. They also launched 36 cruise missiles which are equivalent to our Tomahawk. I have no idea what the equivalent cost for one of these domestically developed weapons is to Iran, but a Tomahawk costs the US taxpayer approx $2 mil each. Lastly they also launched launched 110 surface to surface ballistic missiles. A large proportion of these were most likely Sjjill MRBM missiles with a range of 2000 Km. They are the newest missile in the inventory and the only MRBM in Iran's armory capable of reaching Israel. The Sejjil is a two-stage solid fuel ballistic missile with a launch weigh exceeding 40,000 lbs. It is both conventional and nuclear capable. It is a very sophisticated weapon similar to our Pershing. I have seen no cost estimates, but such a weapon would be very expensive.

In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.
 

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