Politics

[rookhawk]

Disgusting savages. Mangele would be proud of the Dutch:

Dutch officials say first toddler euthanized under new state law was “handled well”

Welcome to hell.

notthebee.com

 

[skydiver386]

Meanwhile Madonna, also known in the Latin World as La Marrana, kicks off her latest tour. Flashy outfits stuffed with adult diapers.

How much would you pay Ticketmaster to see that?

 

[mdwest]

Funny thing is… I thought she was a talentless filthy skank 35 years ago… and… that opinion has never changed… lol….

 

[Mekaniks]

Trump should hope his Fed chairman Warsh raises rates against his wishes.

Lowering them would be gas on the current inflation. The 10 year treasury is already high and impacts the average American more than the Fed raising short term rates.

Raising rates will show the market and world the Fed is serious about getting inflation
down.

Hopefully he doesn’t listen to Trump

Looks like the Fed Committee voted unanimously to raise the rate…

https://thehill.com/business/6093135-fed-raises-interest-rates/

 

[skydiver386]

Funny thing is… I thought she was a talentless filthy skank 35 years ago… and… that opinion has never changed… lol….

Now she's a skank with the incontinence issues.

You are welcome.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Trump should hope his Fed chairman Warsh raises rates against his wishes.

Lowering them would be gas on the current inflation. The 10 year treasury is already high and impacts the average American more than the Fed raising short term rates.

Raising rates will show the market and world the Fed is serious about getting inflation
down.

Hopefully he doesn’t listen to Trump

He's not going to, and he didn't. I don't blame the fed for the increase. 12-0 vote, for a increase. 0 dissenters.

Where we are now is not all Trump's fault but he's done absolutely nothing to avoid this. Making us into the enemy of the entire world, on a commerce basis, with the tariffs...not helpful. Our treasury auctions have been dismal at best. We racked up even higher debt, all along with countries not buying our paper. Add tariff refunds on top of it, we look like a joke. Bessent's (who I like) treasury buyback was a joke and only further forced the Fed's hand.

The biggest driver here though: diesel. $6 a gallon is going to increase the overall cost of goods a lot. Warsh is not stupid. Not sure how Trump didn't see this coming.

Like I said, not all his fault. We had an empty suit for 4 years, a wildly incompetent Fed chair, and a manufactured pandemic that kicked this all off.

Someone better start figuring out something...because this economy is going the other way now.

 

[cash_tx]

Funny, I heard the new definition of EBITDA is Earnings Before Iran, Tariffs, Diesel, and AI.

Not so funny, I also heard a pretty credible sounding economist saying that $6 diesel will likely be $8 or $10 diesel in the next few months.

 

[Tbitty]

People vote themselves into Marxism with the promise of free stuff, but then have to fight their way out when the oppressive hand of authoritarian government crushes them, which is why the would be rulers try non-stop to disarm citizens.

Hard times -> strong men -> good times -> soft men ... repeat.

 

[Daryl S]

I only own one $6,000.00 rifle. It was not built on the Euro. continent, nor England or the USA. It was built in Canada by my brother. I traded one of his best, an $8,000.00 rifle for the $6,000.00 + a model 1886/71 Pedersoli .45/70. He wanted the bench copy A. Verlner back. The M86, with a 350gr. Hornday FP's @ 2,060fps will do my élk this December.

 

[rookhawk]

Not so funny, I also heard a pretty credible sounding economist saying that $6 diesel will likely be $8 or $10 diesel in the next few months.

I've been thinking about this a lot. I'm convinced that the Iran thing isn't going away any time soon. There are no off ramps and a land war would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like "Great ideas" by comparison.

So factor one is oil is going to be expensive for awhile. That means that petroleum jelly is expensive, butane and propane will be expensive, Naphtha to make plastic is going to be expensive, sulphur for fertilizer is going to be expensive, asphalt and bitumen for roof shingles and roads is going to be expensive, petrochemicals are going to be expensive, fuel oil is going to be expensive, solvents and hydrocarbons are going to be expensive. Direct components are going to be expensive creating inflation.

Factor two is that logistics by barge, rail, and truck will go up because of the fuel factor. Indirect inflation will be assigned to the cost of goods sold creating secondary inflation.

So while the Fed pumps us up for two more quarter-point rises in the interest rates to thwart inflation this year, it is not going to have meaningful impact to the inflation rate caused by the two factors above.

Factor three is what the Fed's inflation war is doing. 30 Year Mortgage rates closed today at 7.24%, the highest rate in 20 months. We also have the fewest real estate buyers in 30 years at present. The delist "quit rate" for sellers is now 5.8% of all listings. Interest rates are going to kill the housing market and even if sellers discount the homes 20%, the carrying costs will not make them affordable for buyers.

Factor four is the increasing interest rates make the risk premium of the stock market untenable when AAA rated corporate bonds will guarantee you a low-risk high rate of return, tanking the stock market this Fall or Winter. Interest rates will push investors out of stocks and into bonds, tanking the market.

Unless something changes with Iran, I think we're in for a really problematic short-run future. The Fed is wrong to be fighting inflation under current geopolitical conditions.

Does anyone see things differently?

 

[Daryl S]

Right now diesel in PG is $7.24US per IMP gallon. That's $10.18 CDN per IMP gallon.

 

[Daryl S]

Mortgage rates when I bought my first house in 1981 was 12%, locked in for 5 years. In 1 or 2 yrs., it went to 22%, then dropped to 11% when I renewed my mortgage. We paid off our house in 12 or 13years.
Can't imagine being retired with a mortgage, but I know some people do just that.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

I've been thinking about this a lot. I'm convinced that the Iran thing isn't going away any time soon. There are no off ramps and a land war would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like "Great ideas" by comparison.

So factor one is oil is going to be expensive for awhile. That means that petroleum jelly is expensive, butane and propane will be expensive, Naphtha to make plastic is going to be expensive, sulphur for fertilizer is going to be expensive, asphalt and bitumen for roof shingles and roads is going to be expensive, petrochemicals are going to be expensive, fuel oil is going to be expensive, solvents and hydrocarbons are going to be expensive. Direct components are going to be expensive creating inflation.

Factor two is that logistics by barge, rail, and truck will go up because of the fuel factor. Indirect inflation will be assigned to the cost of goods sold creating secondary inflation.

So while the Fed pumps us up for two more quarter-point rises in the interest rates to thwart inflation this year, it is not going to have meaningful impact to the inflation rate caused by the two factors above.

Factor three is what the Fed's inflation war is doing. 30 Year Mortgage rates closed today at 7.24%, the highest rate in 20 months. We also have the fewest real estate buyers in 30 years at present. The delist "quit rate" for sellers is now 5.8% of all listings. Interest rates are going to kill the housing market and even if sellers discount the homes 20%, the carrying costs will not make them affordable for buyers.

Factor four is the increasing interest rates make the risk premium of the stock market untenable when AAA rated corporate bonds will guarantee you a low-risk high rate of return, tanking the stock market this Fall or Winter. Interest rates will push investors out of stocks and into bonds, tanking the market.

Unless something changes with Iran, I think we're in for a really problematic short-run future. The Fed is wrong to be fighting inflation under current geopolitical conditions.

Does anyone see things differently?

The only thing that will keep inflation in check will be that the demand side of the equation is reduced because people can’t afford stuff and just do without.

The Iran situation does not look good. Tactically, our military has performed superbly. But what is the overall strategy???

 

[LivingTheDream]

I've been thinking about this a lot. I'm convinced that the Iran thing isn't going away any time soon. There are no off ramps and a land war would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like "Great ideas" by comparison.

So factor one is oil is going to be expensive for awhile. That means that petroleum jelly is expensive, butane and propane will be expensive, Naphtha to make plastic is going to be expensive, sulphur for fertilizer is going to be expensive, asphalt and bitumen for roof shingles and roads is going to be expensive, petrochemicals are going to be expensive, fuel oil is going to be expensive, solvents and hydrocarbons are going to be expensive. Direct components are going to be expensive creating inflation.

Factor two is that logistics by barge, rail, and truck will go up because of the fuel factor. Indirect inflation will be assigned to the cost of goods sold creating secondary inflation.

So while the Fed pumps us up for two more quarter-point rises in the interest rates to thwart inflation this year, it is not going to have meaningful impact to the inflation rate caused by the two factors above.

Factor three is what the Fed's inflation war is doing. 30 Year Mortgage rates closed today at 7.24%, the highest rate in 20 months. We also have the fewest real estate buyers in 30 years at present. The delist "quit rate" for sellers is now 5.8% of all listings. Interest rates are going to kill the housing market and even if sellers discount the homes 20%, the carrying costs will not make them affordable for buyers.

Factor four is the increasing interest rates make the risk premium of the stock market untenable when AAA rated corporate bonds will guarantee you a low-risk high rate of return, tanking the stock market this Fall or Winter. Interest rates will push investors out of stocks and into bonds, tanking the market.

Unless something changes with Iran, I think we're in for a really problematic short-run future. The Fed is wrong to be fighting inflation under current geopolitical conditions.

Does anyone see things differently?

I think the market is very delicate right now, from what I am seeing I am not believing the job numbers (just like I didnt believe the numbers under Biden).

To your point they can raise interest rates to 10% but it wont help the supply of oil. Given how leveraged everything is as well as the amount of loans and business done through private equity, there is probably a lot more risk and exposure that is currently unknown and can't be truly accounted for. A sharp drop, will be compounded. It get really bumpy, real scary very quick. The house market is very very weak, and as someone looking for rentals to buy, I am seeing prices come down. But that is very delicate since some many people's net worth is based on the equity in their home.

The point I would disagree with is I am not sure the war will be long in Iran, I think the economic consequences will be what eventually breaks the regime. Guessing it will less than 60 days from here.

 

[jruby]

Who thinks Trump will leave the Iran war for the next POTUS to resolve like he did Afghanistan?

 

[LivingTheDream]

Who thinks Trump will leave the Iran war for the next POTUS to resolve like he did Afghanistan?

For what it is worth, I dont think he intended to leave it for the next president but he did lose the election.

 

[mark-hunter]

Who thinks Trump will leave the Iran war for the next POTUS to resolve like he did Afghanistan?

Its irrelevant, middle east is likely lost for ever, unless we see some immediate change.
If Iran is not crushed, or regime changed, war will be ongoing and military bases in gulf will become permanent target. To crush Iran or change regime, at this moment solution is not visible.
So this is not long term sustainable situation.

If we look at latest international news.
Middle east is no longer called middle east. Its called "West Asia".
While Iran campaign came as surprise because western nations and western peoples were not prepared for this campaign, the term "west Asia" is probably propaganda well planned term prepared by Asian powers. It is not to be underestimated because they are about the half of global population.

Borders of countries in middle east were drawn by British and French at begging of century, after WW1.
After the British could no longer keep it after WW2, USA came in, and kept it under pax Americana.
Now this is again incontrollable region, and USA is loosing foothold.

In new emerging balance of powers on global stage, there are two wars onging.
Ukraine and Iran.

And west is not winning. And opponenst are not loosing.
In the same time, the opponents of the west were preparing for years with self sustainable industry (and Economy - via brics), for long war of attrition.
And we were not prepared for that.

Europe:
In all that, and with two large fronts, and ad hoc and patch up unprepared policies and without strategy, EU has lost access to cheaper energy, and economy is in decline. Russian oil under embargo, Saudi oil stopped with oil infrastructure heavily damaged to Red Sea, and Hormuz blockade on other side.

America:
America on the other hand, is in much better position with its control of resources in its own region. (South America, Venezuela, Mexico, etc) This also means America has a way out. And Europe will need to reinvent their energy strategy

Middle east from western perspective?
I think too expensive to invest "blood and treasure" by west, and more losses will spiral to more serious political frictions at home land, because as I said, we were not prepared politically and mentally.

It will be few years till all this settles down. Most of political and economy annalists say, the new global order and system will be established around 2030. It is not a deadline, it is plus minus estimate, a year or two, sooner or later. Probably later, maybe 2035.

 

[Pheroze]

This is an article that sat heavy with me this morning.

Pentagon plans to exhume, identify Korean War remains in Tomb of the Unknown Soldier

The disinterment is expected to cap a years-long effort to identify the remains of almost 900 unidentified service members killed during the Korean War.

www.stripes.com

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Continental Resources targets 30-Bbbl Venezuela oil block in PDVSA deal

Continental Resources has signed an MOU with PDVSA to operate and develop the 126,000-acre Ayacucho 2 block in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, estimated to hold 30 billion barrels of oil resource in place.

worldoil.com

 

[Pheroze]

The Premier never ceases to amaze me with his chosen endorsements. I don’t think he is as conservative as he pretends

Ford signals support for Chow ahead of Toronto's October election

Speaking at an unrelated event in Toronto, Ford praised Chow's leadership and collaboration with the province.

toronto.citynews.ca