Politics

[spike.t]

2 more screw worm cases. 1 a calf in La Salle County (county seat Cotulla) and a dog in Andrews County

Could illegals jumping the border have carried the fly in?

 

[Altitude sickness]

Majority of mail-in votes are Democrats and two-thirds of registered voters are Democrats so makes sense in close races for Republicans to lose once the mail-in votes are counted.

My question is. How did the 3rd place candidate that was polling at 1% the day of the election get 75% of the mail in ballots. We understand that most of the LA and California voters are Democrat, but why would 75% go to the bottom 1% candidate why not the top Democrat candidate?

It seems statistically improbable.

I’ll ask my nephew, an actuary to run the odds.

 

[Tanks]

My question is. How did the 3rd place candidate that was polling at 1% the day of the election get 75% of the mail in ballots.

Late May Bass was just 1 point ahead of Raman and 4 points ahead of Pratt. So, that 1% polling day of election is wrong.

A UC Berkeley-LA Times poll from late May found Bass just one point ahead of Raman, and four points ahead of Pratt.

From the link above:

• The latest UC Berkeley-L.A. Times poll in the L.A. mayor’s race has Mayor Bass at 26%, Nithya Raman at 25% and Spencer Pratt at 22% among likely voters.

 

[Altitude sickness]

It’s odd the graphs show Bass and Pratt on a normal progression. And Ramans falls out of statistical norm. She didn’t even win her own district.

To be clear, I am surprised Bass didn’t receive the spike of later mail in votes instead of the less popular candidate.