Politics

[wesheltonj]

OBL was a Sunni from Saudi Arabia. I remember seeing a wanted poster of his mug, possibly homemade, hanging in a small B&B in the middle of nowhere in Western AK at least 5 years before 9-11. Someone knew something but few of the powers that be were paying attention. Food for thought. Also, unless my memory is failing, didn’t the Slick Willie admin have him in the sights of a predator drone and the Slickster denied the Spec Ops operator permission to take the shot?

That would be correct

 

[Mountainshadows]

Just thought I'd let ya know that @mdwest and @Red Leg are giving some of you following along a little bit of an education. I don't know the background of @Red Leg (he was obviously a Flag Officer operating at or close to the strategic level) , but I do know a tad bit about @mdwest 's background. We have both been through similar training.
While assigned to a particular special unit in the US Army I not only under went Arabic language school and cultural courses, but also spent most of my operational time in the Middle East. Some years after leaving the Army I spent quite a few more years working in the Middle East after 9/11.
A Muslim radical can be from any sect. It all depends on the indoctrination and/or the weak mind of the particular individual. I do not think any intel analysts can begin to give you an accurate number of who has been indoctrinated by sect. There are too many variables to take into count. It would only be a rough guess.

A funny variable to this event, when I was leaving the Army, my company Sergeant Major ripped me a new one because I would not re-enlist and told me not to come back to him in a couple of years when we went to war with Iran and ask for my job back. This was in 1997. (He later came and said to call him anytime I wanted to come back).

@Hunter-Habib thank you for an excellent post. There are so many who do not get the opinion of someone who is Muslim and their viewpoint, the fallback is to think they are all radicals. I have worked with and been good friends with so many people who were of the Muslim religion.

The Iranian leadership was an evil on the world that should have been put away a long time ago.

 

[mdwest]

Check your inbox

Thanks!

 

[mdwest]

didn’t the Slick Willie admin have him in the sights of a predator drone and the Slickster denied the Spec Ops operator permission to take the shot?

Billy Waugh… a giant among giants… he just passed away a couple of years ago… he was still actively pursuing terrorists well into his 70’s..

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your...-waugh-special-forces-soldier-cia-contractor/

That article scratches the surface of who Waugh was… think of it as the tip of the iceberg visible from the surface… and 90% remains hidden from view…

Truly a legend within his regiment and within the CIA…

 

[Red Leg]

Earlier today a mob of Pakistani protestors tried to breach our consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Way back in 1979 our embassy in Pakistan was overrun by rioters killing two Americans and two local staffers. US Marine guards were ordered not to respond. Upon Regan entering office, he established a new ROE that all consulates and embassies would be defended. I have no idea what has happened with respect to that specific ROE in the intervening years, but today the US Marine guard force took their mission seriously, killing nine and wounding many others who attempted to penetrate the facility. The Paks are not entirely happy, but our flag is flying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028183293443645848

 

[Doug Hamilton]

In 1968 and 1975, I had the good fortune to visit Iran back when the Shah of Iran ran the show. It was truly a gem of the Middle East.

Rich Persian culture, art & music that brought joy to the hearts of even the most jaded military veteran, women being free to study & work & live life on their own terms and a country where people of different religious beliefs lived together in harmony.

I have a fond memory of how I once had lunch with my parents & an American family friend of theirs at an Iranian restaurant just South of Tehran. I had the lamb Bonab kebab and my parents ate a platter of chicken Kabsa, while our American family friend dined upon a plate of flame grilled ham & fried eggs. Despite being Muslim, the consumption of pork around us didn't even remotely bother us at all. Nor did it bother anybody else at the restaurant (the bulk of whom were also Muslim). The chef who prepared all of our meals nonchalantly handed our American friend his plate of ham & eggs and then went off to take a break to perform his Friday Muslim prayer. To us all, it was just another beautiful day under God's green earth.

Then, the disgusting "Islamic Revolution" led by the Khamenei Regime destroyed Iran in 1979. Previously, the Shah of Iran had used brutal methods in order to keep Islamic radicals under control. Brutal, but necessary. You can't suppress evil by being nice. The radical Islamic groups initially rallied several kinds of people against the Shah for "Violation of basic human rights". Including many female activists & scholars. But just within a week of the Shah being overthrown, the Khamenei Regime (in the name of so-called "Islamic Values") killed many more Iranian civilians than the Shah killed in his entire life. And those female activists ? The ones who weren't killed outright, were forced to wear burkhas & disappear from public life in order to be "Proper Muslim Women". Suddenly, the Iranians realized that the Shah of Iran wasn't a monster. He was the only thing which was holding the monsters at bay.

47 years passed. People in Iran began to crave a free life again. But any protests for freedom from a sick Islamic lifestyle led to only one end result- mass public executions. Just two weeks ago, the Khamenei Regime executed 36,500+ unarmed Iranian civilians within 48 hours.

Iran's so-called "Islamic Revolution" sparked similar uprisings of cultists in other parts of the world (most notably Afghanistan) and led to radical Islam suddenly being just as big of a world threat as Nazi Germany became in the 1930s. The problem had also been manifesting itself in my country, as well.

Today, all that changed. The United States and Israel did what many world leaders haven't had the guts to do since that nightmare of 1979. They eradicated that filthy cultist Khamenei and in doing so... finally saved the people of Iran. Are Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu morally good people ? I don't know (and quite frankly, I couldn't care less). But what I do know, is that they did a very good thing.

This year is turning out to be a very good one. The Americans & Israelis took down Khamenei. Pakistan is fighting off the Taliban in Afghanistan. And in Bangladesh, we successfully prevented the radical Muslims from taking over our country through National elections and timely intervention by the army.

Say no to Shariah Law. By any means necessary. It is evil and you can't suppress evil by being nice. I say it despite being Muslim.

Many Muslims not living in Iran are outraged about America & Israel's actions. These same people cry everyday on social media about the so-called atrocities in Gaza. Yet they were eerily silent for the last two weeks when the Iranian government was wantonly executing 36,500 men & women & children. Their own people. Women who wanted to wear their hair open, men & women who wanted to paint and play music, minorites who wanted to live in dignity without being forced to live a religious lifestyle which they didn't ideologically subscribe to.

You see, that's the hypocrisy about us Muslims. We only care about the atrocities being committed on Muslims when the perpetrators are non-Muslim. If it's a Muslim killing other Muslims (or anybody else in general), then we don't even bat an eyelid.

Hunter-Habib, as usual you have spelled out the facts clearly and succinctly. I hope you reach more people than your friends here on AH. Everyone, including Muslims, need to hear the truth of it.

I am still.in awe of your vast knowledge of guns, game and hunting. Now I have to add religion and world events. I hope some day our paths cross, I would be proud to call you friend.

Doug

 

[thoma018]

Billy Waugh… a giant among giants… he just passed away a couple of years ago… he was still actively pursuing terrorists well into his 70’s..

It will be three years this April. Yes, a giant.

 

[Wheels]

Earlier today a mob of Pakistani protestors tried to breach our consulate in Karachi, Pakistan. Way back in 1979 our embassy in Pakistan was overrun by rioters killing two Americans and two local staffers. US Marine guards were ordered not to respond. Upon Regan entering office, he established a new ROE that all consulates and embassies would be defended. I have no idea what has happened with respect to that specific ROE in the intervening years, but today the US Marine guard force took their mission seriously, killing nine and wounding many others who attempted to penetrate the facility. The Paks are not entirely happy, but our flag is flying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028183293443645848

View from a different angle. A little bloodier. This isn’t the Carter/Tehran Obama/Benghazi administrations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028220104161325470

 

[Tex .416]

Even a carrier is a very difficult target to find - particularly for a third world power. First the Iranians have to locate the battle group using recon drones (A manned aircraft would simply be a target for the battle group's CAP.) Those drones would have to survive long enough to close with and ID the target. Then the drone, if it survives that long, has to communicate that in formation to the anti-ship (which are not ballistic) missile launch unit or command center. That too is very difficult in an environment where the battle group and strategic assets are intercepting and jamming every signal (even frequency hopping) - a catalogue of which NSA will have been collecting constantly. If all that should somehow go correctly, they would then have to mass a swarm of Shahads or their equivalent for a simultaneous launch against the last known location of the ship. Such drones are subsonic and we can assume the battle group is at least 100 Nm offshore cruising at a minimum of twenty knots, and far faster should an attack be detected. Under such real world conditions, GPS guidance is pretty useless and no command guidance or wire guidance works at that range. So it is very unlikely, a swarm will ever appear coming over the horizon.

The anti-ship missiles do have radar-based terminal guidance. As we saw with the Moskov, an anti-ship missile can fly that far and achieve lock. So, if a general target area can be provided, it is possible that such missiles could engage a target. However, against a US fleet asset, what is far more likely is that the launch would be detected by national means, immediately identified, and notification made. The battle group or another national asset would then identify the seeker frequency(ies) and begin targeted jamming as would assets within the battle group. It is extremely unlikely that the anti-ship missiles would ever achieve lock. And as you note, should all of that somehow fail, the battle group’s layered anti-air assets are waiting.

Could the Ford or Lincoln be hit? Yes, but it would take a catastrophic layer of failures for that to occur.

RL,

rather than Iran going looking for ships on its own, isn't it more likely that China and/or Russia are providing satellite data and/or other intel?

Thoughts?

 

[Wheels]

Billy Waugh… a giant among giants… he just passed away a couple of years ago… he was still actively pursuing terrorists well into his 70’s..

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your...-waugh-special-forces-soldier-cia-contractor/

That article scratches the surface of who Waugh was… think of it as the tip of the iceberg visible from the surface… and 90% remains hidden from view…

Truly a legend within his regiment and within the CIA…

If I remember correct in his book, Waugh asked for permission to take Bin Laden out in Khartoum but was turned down. The Dar es Salaam and Nairobi bombings along with the USS Cole took place soon after.

 

[Red Leg]

RL,

rather than Iran going looking for ships on its own, isn't it more likely that China and/or Russia are providing satellite data and/or other intel?

Thoughts?

Providing satellite data sounds impressive, but what could they actually provide from a timely targeting perspective? Let's say at 0145 a Russian or Chinese satellite flew across the Arabian Sea recording the location of the Lincoln task force. That data is sent to Moscow or Beijing. Some sort of analysis takes place, and permission is given to transmit the location to someone in the Ministry of Defense or RGC in Tehran (assuming they still exist). The location is then passed to a firing unit somewhere along the southern coast of Iran. The anti-ship missile is then programed with those coordinates.

How long do you think that would take between nation states to analyze and pass such information? I would argue at least hours. As I noted earlier, a carrier task force isn't anchored. It is moving at 20+ knots. Any targeting developed with regard to the actual current location of the task force would be purely coincidental.

 

[Tex .416]

Providing satellite data sounds impressive, but what could they actually provide from a timely targeting perspective? Let's say at 0145 a Russian or Chinese satellite flew across the Arabian Sea recording the location of the Lincoln task force. That data is sent to Moscow or Beijing. Some sort of analysis takes place, and permission is given to transmit the location to someone in the Ministry of Defense or RGC in Tehran (assuming they still exist). The location is then passed to a firing unit somewhere along the southern coast of Iran. The anti-ship missile is then programed with those coordinates.

How long do you think that would take between nation states to analyze and pass such information? I would argue at least hours. As I noted earlier, a carrier task force isn't anchored. It is moving at 20+ knots. Any targeting developed with regard to the actual current location of the task force would be purely coincidental.

That is your area of subject expertise, not mine, which is why I asked. However, I fully expect the Chinese and Russians have "advisors" in critical positions to "assist" as needed, much as we do with placement of our "advisors," sometimes in rather forward or otherwise critical positions.

However, the root question is how far will China and/or Russia go to assist Iran? Russia has its hands full and personnel and warehouses running low in Ukraine. China on the other hand, might want to test out equipment and tactics in advance of moving on Taiwan at some point in the future. The heads rolling and positions being shuffled in the Chinese military signify something going on, but what?

 

[Red Leg]

That is your area of subject expertise, not mine, which is why I asked. However, I fully expect the Chinese and Russians have "advisors" in critical positions to "assist" as needed, much as we do with placement of our "advisors," sometimes in rather forward or otherwise critical positions.

However, the root question is how far will China and/or Russia go to assist Iran? Russia has its hands full and personnel and warehouses running low in Ukraine. China on the other hand, might want to test out equipment and tactics in advance of moving on Taiwan at some point in the future. The heads rolling and positions being shuffled in the Chinese military signify something going on, but what?

They can have all the advisors they want (I have yet to see any meaningful role of any), but that is irrelevant. Few things are more difficult than turning national level intelligence into targetable data. I do not think there is an iota of opportunity for either country to provide Iran with anything actionable against a mobile target.

 

[Tex .416]

They can have all the advisors they want (I have yet to see any meaningful role of any), but that is irrelevant. Few things are more difficult than turning national level intelligence into targetable data. I do not think there is an iota of opportunity for either country to provide Iran with anything actionable against a mobile target.

Comforting to hear that.

 

[Scott CWO]

It looks like the initial strikes during the first 24 hours were carried out primarily by sea, ground, and air launched cruise missiles. With the Iranian air defenses significantly degraded, the B-2's were apparently on the prowl last night with primary targets being the Iranian missile storage facilities. They do not need the heavy penetrators needed for the nuclear sites to close or destroy these stockpiles. Normal 1k and 2k penetrators would reach most of them, and as the article suggests, pulling the mountain down over the entrance takes them off the table for this campaign. More are likely there right now.

As a by the way, it is ridiculous we only have twenty of these. George H. W. Bush curtailed production in the early nineties from 132 to 20 because we would never have a need for them with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Its replacement is the the B-21 and is just entering low rate production. Though similar in appearance, it is as revolutionary as its predecessor. We'll see if it survives the next administration.

B-2 Spirits Join Iran Air War, Pummel Underground Missile Caves

The arrival of the B-2s marks a change in the air campaign and will put certain target sets at greater risk as the operation expands.

www.twz.com

I thought the B-21 had been approved and headed to Ellsworth AFB? I think they are constructing the infrastructure there now?

 

[shootist~]

Iran is 90-95,% Shiite.

I'm not sure that is entirely accurate.

I've read that 37% of Iranians consider themselves to be Muslim, but 51% consider themselves to be non-religious. Not sure where the others fall.

Our good friend's daughter married an Iranian man a couple of years ago and we attended the wedding. (Actually they eloped to Hawaii and this was a follow up ceremony at her parents house.)

Short story shorter - the short dresses and low-cut tops of the young women on the grooms side were not of a religious nature. Trust me, I looked closely.

As an aside, the grooms father was imprisoned for a time for being anti-regime. And still lives in Iran.

 

[Scott CWO]

In 1968 and 1975, I had the good fortune to visit Iran back when the Shah of Iran ran the show. It was truly a gem of the Middle East.

Rich Persian culture, art & music that brought joy to the hearts of even the most jaded military veteran, women being free to study & work & live life on their own terms and a country where people of different religious beliefs lived together in harmony.

I have a fond memory of how I once had lunch with my parents & an American family friend of theirs at an Iranian restaurant just South of Tehran. I had the lamb Bonab kebab and my parents ate a platter of chicken Kabsa, while our American family friend dined upon a plate of flame grilled ham & fried eggs. Despite being Muslim, the consumption of pork around us didn't even remotely bother us at all. Nor did it bother anybody else at the restaurant (the bulk of whom were also Muslim). The chef who prepared all of our meals nonchalantly handed our American friend his plate of ham & eggs and then went off to take a break to perform his Friday Muslim prayer. To us all, it was just another beautiful day under God's green earth.

Then, the disgusting "Islamic Revolution" led by the Khamenei Regime destroyed Iran in 1979. Previously, the Shah of Iran had used brutal methods in order to keep Islamic radicals under control. Brutal, but necessary. You can't suppress evil by being nice. The radical Islamic groups initially rallied several kinds of people against the Shah for "Violation of basic human rights". Including many female activists & scholars. But just within a week of the Shah being overthrown, the Khamenei Regime (in the name of so-called "Islamic Values") killed many more Iranian civilians than the Shah killed in his entire life. And those female activists ? The ones who weren't killed outright, were forced to wear burkhas & disappear from public life in order to be "Proper Muslim Women". Suddenly, the Iranians realized that the Shah of Iran wasn't a monster. He was the only thing which was holding the monsters at bay.

47 years passed. People in Iran began to crave a free life again. But any protests for freedom from a sick Islamic lifestyle led to only one end result- mass public executions. Just two weeks ago, the Khamenei Regime executed 36,500+ unarmed Iranian civilians within 48 hours.

Iran's so-called "Islamic Revolution" sparked similar uprisings of cultists in other parts of the world (most notably Afghanistan) and led to radical Islam suddenly being just as big of a world threat as Nazi Germany became in the 1930s. The problem had also been manifesting itself in my country, as well.

Today, all that changed. The United States and Israel did what many world leaders haven't had the guts to do since that nightmare of 1979. They eradicated that filthy cultist Khamenei and in doing so... finally saved the people of Iran. Are Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu morally good people ? I don't know (and quite frankly, I couldn't care less). But what I do know, is that they did a very good thing.

This year is turning out to be a very good one. The Americans & Israelis took down Khamenei. Pakistan is fighting off the Taliban in Afghanistan. And in Bangladesh, we successfully prevented the radical Muslims from taking over our country through National elections and timely intervention by the army.

Say no to Shariah Law. By any means necessary. It is evil and you can't suppress evil by being nice. I say it despite being Muslim.

Many Muslims not living in Iran are outraged about America & Israel's actions. These same people cry everyday on social media about the so-called atrocities in Gaza. Yet they were eerily silent for the last two weeks when the Iranian government was wantonly executing 36,500 men & women & children. Their own people. Women who wanted to wear their hair open, men & women who wanted to paint and play music, minorites who wanted to live in dignity without being forced to live a religious lifestyle which they didn't ideologically subscribe to.

You see, that's the hypocrisy about us Muslims. We only care about the atrocities being committed on Muslims when the perpetrators are non-Muslim. If it's a Muslim killing other Muslims (or anybody else in general), then we don't even bat an eyelid.

My friend, one of the best posts ever entered on the thread!

 

[Sideshow]

We need to quit typing simultaneously.

Once again we’re making similar posts at the same time…

If you two divorce who gets the doubles?

 

[Sideshow]

Providing satellite data sounds impressive, but what could they actually provide from a timely targeting perspective? Let's say at 0145 a Russian or Chinese satellite flew across the Arabian Sea recording the location of the Lincoln task force. That data is sent to Moscow or Beijing. Some sort of analysis takes place, and permission is given to transmit the location to someone in the Ministry of Defense or RGC in Tehran (assuming they still exist). The location is then passed to a firing unit somewhere along the southern coast of Iran. The anti-ship missile is then programed with those coordinates.

How long do you think that would take between nation states to analyze and pass such information? I would argue at least hours. As I noted earlier, a carrier task force isn't anchored. It is moving at 20+ knots. Any targeting developed with regard to the actual current location of the task force would be purely coincidental.

This video gives a good account on how hard it is to do just this.

The Nazis at Normandy also had a horrid time of it land based versus sea based firing platforms these guns above gold beach were taken out by a pair of light battleships. You can see how accurate the incoming was.

 

[Sideshow]

Looks like they have hit the RAF base in Cyprus! Reported explosions heard.

Explosion hits RAF base in Cyprus: Sources confirm blast

A strong explosion was heard at the British Akrotiri Air Force base in Limassol at around midnight local time after a 'security threat' was reportedly declared.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Looks like a drone