What stocks are you trading today

[Scott CWO]

Very, very big week in the market this week. There will be some major movement.

38% of the SP500 is reporting this week
FOMC meetings/pressers
Various economic numbers being released

And there is even more than that. Going to be interesting.

I call 25 bps cut to the Fed rate. Powell has no choice.

I hope you’re right but my guess is Powell will hold steady to be seen as not being influenced by Trump. Powell will wait until September to make a cut.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Powell was smart to see if the tariffs would have any impact on inflation before lowering interest rates.
The effects of lowering the interest rates are immediate, inflation is hard to get rid of.

Also, if he does it well into August or September, it will be rocket fuel to the economy, and that time of year is traditionally a slight slow down.

The economy had several boosts already. Why use them all at once. Powell did Trump a favor by waiting.

So a win, win for us and Trump.

 

[Boone66]

The only stocks that I'm trading are synthetic for wood.

 

[mdwest]

Powell was smart to see if the tariffs would have any impact on inflation before lowering interest rates.
The effects of lowering the interest rates are immediate, inflation is hard to get rid of.

Also, if he does it well into August or September, it will be rocket fuel to the economy, and that time of year is traditionally a slight slow down.

The economy had several boosts already. Why use them all at once. Powell did Trump a favor by waiting.

So a win, win for us and Trump.

Agree..

Drop .25 BP in about 2 weeks... then if possible drop it another .25 mid September.. just before Christmas retail shopping starts to drive American spending in Oct, Nov, and Dec..

The economy will continue in a gradual upward climb and will have improved in multiple sectors.. come January Trump will be able to point to a ton of growth and prosperity during his inaugural year.. which should help out a ton when mid term spin ups start happening around Feb/March..

Right now D's are having a hell of a time fund raising.. I saw an interview today saying R's have outraised them 4:1 since the election.. their other problem is they are being outpaced by R's in registering new voters..

If they cant bring new voters to the table, dont have the money to do all the things they typically do during election cycles, and the economy is booming in 2026... neither the house or the senate will flip and Trump will have a relatively easy final 2 years..

 

[VertigoBE]

Agree..

Drop .25 BP in about 2 weeks... then if possible drop it another .25 mid September.. just before Christmas retail shopping starts to drive American spending in Oct, Nov, and Dec..

The economy will continue in a gradual upward climb and will have improved in multiple sectors.. come January Trump will be able to point to a ton of growth and prosperity during his inaugural year.. which should help out a ton when mid term spin ups start happening around Feb/March..

Right now D's are having a hell of a time fund raising.. I saw an interview today saying R's have outraised them 4:1 since the election.. their other problem is they are being outpaced by R's in registering new voters..

If they cant bring new voters to the table, dont have the money to do all the things they typically do during election cycles, and the economy is booming in 2026... neither the house or the senate will flip and Trump will have a relatively easy final 2 years..

Crossing my fingers!

 

[HookMeUpII]

Agree..

Drop .25 BP in about 2 weeks... then if possible drop it another .25 mid September.. just before Christmas retail shopping starts to drive American spending in Oct, Nov, and Dec..

The economy will continue in a gradual upward climb and will have improved in multiple sectors.. come January Trump will be able to point to a ton of growth and prosperity during his inaugural year.. which should help out a ton when mid term spin ups start happening around Feb/March..

Right now D's are having a hell of a time fund raising.. I saw an interview today saying R's have outraised them 4:1 since the election.. their other problem is they are being outpaced by R's in registering new voters..

If they cant bring new voters to the table, dont have the money to do all the things they typically do during election cycles, and the economy is booming in 2026... neither the house or the senate will flip and Trump will have a relatively easy final 2 years..

A lot of what you're saying has more of a political spin, to which I subscribe to as well. However, I think Powell is just incompetent. He was late to the party raising which led to him almost destroying the banking system and creating a terrible housing market. He's late to the party again.

The labor market, in some aspects is softening. The real estate market is now really hurting nationwide, outside of a few hot markets. New housing starts I believe I saw were at a 25 year low, might be wrong on that figure.

I somewhat get the waiting to see tariff impact.

Either way, if it's not immediate, he's nuts not pencil in two more 25 bps decreases before year end. We're both in agreement there.

 

[Betterinthebush]

Not a stock trade, but I am taking a commodity position on replacement dairy heifers with this news.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251110413841/en/Where-Tradition-Meets-Tomorrow-A-New-Milk-Is-Born-Remilk-and-Gad-Dairies-Launch-The-New-Milk-Milk-Without-Cows

The national rollout of “Beyond Meat” marked precisely within weeks the five year climb in live cattle futures to the record highs we are seeing today.

Live Cattle - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Live Cattle fell to 216.18 USd/Lbs on November 19, 2025, down 1.75% from the previous day. Over the past month, Live Cattle's price has fallen 10.62%, but it is still 16.12% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this...

tradingeconomics.com

I’ve got an empty liquid nitrogen tank right now. I’m going to fill every straw slot with Holstein, Jersey, Guernsey embryos. If the past portends the future, I should make 300% ROI on the embryos in three years and far,far higher ROI on yearling calves and springing heifers that were embryo transfers in my cows in 4-5 years.

 

[Altitude sickness]

What do you do with Jersey and Guernseys? Milk ?

My Son in Law buys and sells embryos

 

[RSL]

Well I wish I had bailed on the few shares of Nvidia i have left on the pop after earnings yesterday. I still think Nvidia is the premier AI play, but at 82 I prefer not to wait very long for another significant upward move.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

A good website for seeing what the experts think the chance of the Fed making a rate cut. A month ago, odds were 98% chance of a Dec 10 rate cut. Today, only 40% chance.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

 

[cash_tx]

Well I wish I had bailed on the few shares of Nvidia i have left on the pop after earnings yesterday. I still think Nvidia is the premier AI play, but at 82 I prefer not to wait very long for another significant upward move.

I was pretty underwhelmed that NVDA didn't get a bigger pop than that.

 

[ActionBob]

Not a stock trade, but I am taking a commodity position on replacement dairy heifers with this news.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251110413841/en/Where-Tradition-Meets-Tomorrow-A-New-Milk-Is-Born-Remilk-and-Gad-Dairies-Launch-The-New-Milk-Milk-Without-Cows

The national rollout of “Beyond Meat” marked precisely within weeks the five year climb in live cattle futures to the record highs we are seeing today.

Live Cattle - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Live Cattle fell to 216.18 USd/Lbs on November 19, 2025, down 1.75% from the previous day. Over the past month, Live Cattle's price has fallen 10.62%, but it is still 16.12% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this...

tradingeconomics.com

I’ve got an empty liquid nitrogen tank right now. I’m going to fill every straw slot with Holstein, Jersey, Guernsey embryos. If the past portends the future, I should make 300% ROI on the embryos in three years and far,far higher ROI on yearling calves and springing heifers that were embryo transfers in my cows in 4-5 years.

Wow interesting. I'm not making those bets....

 

[RSL]

I was pretty underwhelmed that NVDA didn't get a bigger pop than that.

I agreed, and do not understand why. I read something about Put options being the issue. I guess we have Mike Burry to thank for that deal. It did go up about 10% but only held that for a few minutes.

 

[ActionBob]

What do you do with Jersey and Guernseys? Milk ?

My Son in Law buys and sells embryos

Yes milk. The Guernsey breed is about dead, as are Milking Shorthorn, Brown Swiss, and Ayrshire. They are mostly novelty breeds at this point.

Holstein's dominate the dairy industry because the only cow that consistently and reliably produces more milk than a Holstein, is a better Holstein. Jerseys have a strong following, They are the second most popular breed. But Crossbreds are really in second place with Jerseys being 3rd.
From Google.
Holstein made up 79.9% and Jersey made up 7.9% of the US dairy herd, with 11.8% constituted by crossbred animals.

There is a strong contingent of crossbred and Jersey Dairymen including the largest producer in the County (if not the World).

I would not invest in embryos and sit on them. They will last a very long time frozen but the Genetics they posses will become obsolete very quickly with the speed of advancement these days.

 

[RedTag]

The only stocks that I'm trading are synthetic for wood.

Amen

 

[Altitude sickness]

Yes milk. The Guernsey breed is about dead, as are Milking Shorthorn, Brown Swiss, and Ayrshire. They are mostly novelty breeds at this point.

Holstein's dominate the dairy industry because the only cow that consistently and reliably produces more milk than a Holstein, is a better Holstein. Jerseys have a strong following, They are the second most popular breed. But Crossbreds are really in second place with Jerseys being 3rd.
From Google.
Holstein made up 79.9% and Jersey made up 7.9% of the US dairy herd, with 11.8% constituted by crossbred animals.

There is a strong contingent of crossbred and Jersey Dairymen including the largest producer in the County (if not the World).

I would not invest in embryos and sit on them. They will last a very long time frozen but the Genetics they posses will become obsolete very quickly with the speed of advancement these days.

Exactly, I thought Jersey and Guernsey were only used as pets now. I didn’t know anyone milked them as a business.

Yes buying embryos is a way to get the genetics of a superior cow or bull. Not to store as an investment.

There is good money in selling embryos and straws from a known herd or animal.

Anyone wanting to buy into a herd or invest in embryos or straws. My buddy Brock is as honest as he is knowledgeable. Give him a call for show cattle, and investments.

Brock Welshans Show Cattle | Henrietta TX

Brock Welshans Show Cattle, Henrietta. 6,899 likes · 14 talking about this · 29 were here. Brock Welshans Show Cattle is a top source for high quality show cattle, club calves, and breeding cattle....

www.facebook.com

 

[Betterinthebush]

Yes, you are correct. There are zero production dairy herds that are milking Guernsey.

However, as I’m sure you know, A2/A2 beta casein incidence in jersey and guernsey are highest. Where as the Holstein is A1/A1. The kapa casein proteins (AB,BB) also known as the “cheese protein” are highest in the “pet” breeds. These two breeds are always in high demand and command a premium price because the buyers of them are marketing raw or craft cheeses.

These breeds should be preserved for people who are trying to produce high quality raw or diet specific foods for consumers that are also in turn willing to pay a premium. I’ve always done well selling A2/A2 tested Jerseys.

ETA: embryos are automatically A2/A2 if both dam and sire are A2/A2. A huge leg up with selling a yearling calf that was ET is the pedigree are full documented and researchable. An enormous benefit to small producers. Even small family run dairies don’t like raising calves, I’ve found, and prefer a springing heifer ready to go to work. Generally, this is because their processing of product consumes the majority of their time, then milking and sanitation, then feeding.

Exactly, I thought Jersey and Guernsey were only used as pets now. I didn’t know anyone milked them as a business.

Yes buying embryos is a way to get the genetics of a superior cow or bull. Not to store as an investment.

There is good money in selling embryos and straws from a known herd or animal.

Anyone wanting to buy into a herd or invest in embryos or straws. My buddy Brock is as honest as he is knowledgeable. Give him a call for show cattle, and investments.

Brock Welshans Show Cattle | Henrietta TX

Brock Welshans Show Cattle, Henrietta. 6,899 likes · 14 talking about this · 29 were here. Brock Welshans Show Cattle is a top source for high quality show cattle, club calves, and breeding cattle....

www.facebook.com

 

[Rimbaud]

I agreed, and do not understand why. I read something about Put options being the issue. I guess we have Mike Burry to thank for that deal. It did go up about 10% but only held that for a few minutes.

Puts and calls were actually pretty well balanced into the print. Options implied a post-earns move of about 7%, and the stock moved nicely on super financial results. A lot of fretting that the fed doesn’t cut 25 bips in Dec, though, and thus that worry has replaced the AI worry.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Better, Actually I did not know that. I did not know that Jerseys had a market other than being kind of a pet that someone on a hobby farm gets a little milk from.

 

[Rimbaud]

A good website for seeing what the experts think the chance of the Fed making a rate cut. A month ago, odds were 98% chance of a Dec 10 rate cut. Today, only 40% chance.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

View attachment 727832

Everyone watches those stats, but the volatility, as of late, has been incredible. For instance, on 21 Nov. rate cut odds bounced back to 70% after some Fed governor said he sees rooms for a rate cut. Bond market has always been thought of as the adult table in financial markets whereas stock market was for the kids. I'm not so sure anymore that bond market is the calmer, more analytical market because the vol of vol is so extreme...Just one guys thought.