Politics

You disagree with Horowitz and thats fine, you have your opinion he has his.

I have yet to see anyone lay out what our national interest is, beyond inane things like "well, if we dont stop Putin now he will just keep going", when there is nothing to suggest that is valid.
I continue to be very skeptical of the whole thing. Especially after hearing the idiot former Admiral John Kirby state right up front with Shannon Bream that in so many words munitions makers are pretty much dictating to the govt, that they need to make lots of ammo to make any.
Eisenhower warned us.
Actually Eisenhower didn't. I discussed that in a previous post also and am really no longer in the mood. But I'll offer the shorthand version.

Let me start by suggesting you read the whole speech and perhaps a critical interpretation or two of it. The quote that has resonated with the left for sixty years was “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex” It has now become a favorite of the new populist isolationist movement. Interesting bedfellows from the perspective of this Reagan Conservative.

Eisenhower, more than anyone, understood the dangers of isolationism, appeasement, and disarmament. He lived it and shouldered the consequences. The quotes of that speech that should be remembered are, "an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.” and "Throughout America's adventure in free government, our basic purposes have been to keep the peace; to foster progress in human achievement, and to enhance liberty, dignity and integrity among people and among nations." That is in my view represents a clarion call to action on the world stage, not a warning about some military industrial cabal. Regrettably such a knowledgeable citizenry appears ever more to be a pipedream.

With all do respect I fail to see the horror in Kirby's statement. - "The defense industry obviously wants to make sure that if they're going to increase production, that that production rate is going to stay elevated for a period of time. Because that means hiring more workers, it means retooling and adding capacity in their factories and manufacturing capabilities. So we understand that and that's sort of the central thesis here of the discussions that we're having with them, is to get them to increase production and let them know that we're serious about doing that for some period of time," Kirby said .

Well of course. It is called basic business administration 101. What do you expect a munition or weapon systems manufacturer to do? And I would remind you that I was one. What the industry is doing is providing assessments of what is necessary to bring stockpiles of whatever munition to whatever level DOD and the president believe are necessary to support DOD's mission requirements. They are not going to build any of that without a contract. Rates of production will further drive those estimates. But it is the administration developing those requirements and competing those contracts.

I have stated this a dozen different ways, but if our assumptions about the threat represented by China are correct, then I am certain thwarting Russian territorial ambitions in Europe is in our critical national interests. It directly undermines the obvious Chinese strategic effort to create an abiding conventional threat in Europe and further saddles them with a dependent rather than partner. That will allow us to truly focus on our most significant threat.

We have already accomplished enormous strides in neutering the threat presented by an emerging modern military power representing the Russian state.

If you do not agree with that assessment that is your privilege.
 
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Nothing to suggest that is the case? Russian history, since we’ll before Napoleon‘s winter hell, has been directed toward maintaining a ring of vassal states to serve as killing grounds for any invading force. Russia, given its topography, is hard to defend. Flat and featureless steps make invasion, if timed to avoid Russia’s great General, it’s horrific winters, relatively easy. The loss of their protective ring is what drives Vlad’s every move. Russia won’t stop if they succeed in taking Ukraine. They can’t. It’s ok if you think a land invasion of a nuclear power is implausible. Vlad doesn’t think so.
 
What I fail to see is: The govt says only 3% of the military budget is going to Ukraine, however what has been sent to Ukraine has seriously depleted the US military stockpile of arms/equipment. How could a miniscule proportion like 3% be even noticeable in the US military?
 
What I fail to see is: The govt says only 3% of the military budget is going to Ukraine, however what has been sent to Ukraine has seriously depleted the US military stockpile of arms/equipment. How could a miniscule proportion like 3% be even noticeable in the US military?

I am not sure what stock pile has been depleted. Unfortunately, I still hear and feel the Army/CIA blowing up “old” munitions. I am not sure what the Army/CIA calls old, but I have ammo dating back to the 30’s that I’ve still used. @Red Leg any insight what the army call old?
 
Nothing to suggest that is the case? Russian history, since we’ll before Napoleon‘s winter hell, has been directed toward maintaining a ring of vassal states to serve as killing grounds for any invading force. Russia, given its topography, is hard to defend. Flat and featureless steps make invasion, if timed to avoid Russia’s great General, it’s horrific winters, relatively easy. The loss of their protective ring is what drives Vlad’s every move. Russia won’t stop if they succeed in taking Ukraine. They can’t. It’s ok if you think a land invasion of a nuclear power is implausible. Vlad doesn’t think so.
This isnt the dark ages, or 1939, not Hitler, nor Hirohito. I dont think one can equate whats going on over there to whats happened all those years ago.
Its over there, if NATO wants to deal with protecting a non NATO country go for it. I remain unconvinced the this was necessary or advisable.
I could be wrong, wouldnt be the first time.
 
Actually Eisenhower didn't. I discussed that in a previous post also and am really no longer in the mood. But I'll offer the shorthand version.

Let me start by suggesting you read the whole speech and perhaps a critical interpretation or two of it. The quote that has resonated with the left for sixty years was “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex” It has now become a favorite of the new populist isolationist movement. Interesting bedfellows from the perspective of this Reagan Conservative.

Eisenhower, more than anyone, understood the dangers of isolationism, appeasement, and disarmament. He lived it and shouldered the consequences. The quotes of that speech that should be remembered are, "an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.” and "Throughout America's adventure in free government, our basic purposes have been to keep the peace; to foster progress in human achievement, and to enhance liberty, dignity and integrity among people and among nations." That is in my view represents a clarion call to action on the world stage, not a warning about some military industrial cabal. Regrettably such a knowledgeable citizenry appears ever more to be a pipedream.

With all do respect I fail to see the horror in Kirby's statement. - "The defense industry obviously wants to make sure that if they're going to increase production, that that production rate is going to stay elevated for a period of time. Because that means hiring more workers, it means retooling and adding capacity in their factories and manufacturing capabilities. So we understand that and that's sort of the central thesis here of the discussions that we're having with them, is to get them to increase production and let them know that we're serious about doing that for some period of time," Kirby said .

Well of course. It is called basic business administration 101. What do you expect a munition or weapon systems manufacturer to do? And I would remind you that I was one. What the industry is doing is providing assessments of what is necessary to bring stockpiles of whatever munition to whatever level DOD and the president believe are necessary to support DOD's mission requirements. They are not going to build any of that without a contract. Rates of production will further drive those estimates. But it is the administration developing those requirements and competing those contracts.

I have stated this a dozen different ways, but if our assumptions about the threat represented by China are correct, then I am certain thwarting Russian territorial ambitions in Europe is in our critical national interests. It directly undermines the obvious Chinese strategic effort to create an abiding conventional threat in Europe and further saddles them with a dependent rather than partner. That will allow us to truly focus on our most significant threat.

We have already accomplished enormous strides in neutering the threat presented by an emerging modern military power representing the Russian state.

If you do not agree with that assessment that is your privilege.
All well and good Joe. Time will tell, wouldnt be the first time I was wrong about something, but I remain unconvinced that I will be.
 
What I fail to see is: The govt says only 3% of the military budget is going to Ukraine, however what has been sent to Ukraine has seriously depleted the US military stockpile of arms/equipment. How could a miniscule proportion like 3% be even noticeable in the US military?
I agree. With a $600 BILLION military budget, how/why is our military running out of 155mm artillery shells and other offensive weapons including Stingers? I read recently where it'll take EIGHT years to produce more Stingers. The Russian/Ukraine fiasco comes way after China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for years. The "on time" supply chain mentality works somewhat for civilian car parts but it seems to me the military should be thinking differently? We stored and maintained military chemical munitions for DECADES with no intentions of using them ever again, and here we are running low on artillery and other munitions for a current conflict and perhaps a MUCH larger China/Taiwan conflict in the near future. I don't get it?
 
I agree. With a $600 BILLION military budget, how/why is our military running out of 155mm artillery shells and other offensive weapons including Stingers? I read recently where it'll take EIGHT years to produce more Stingers. The Russian/Ukraine fiasco comes way after China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for years. The "on time" supply chain mentality works somewhat for civilian car parts but it seems to me the military should be thinking differently? We stored and maintained military chemical munitions for DECADES with no intentions of using them ever again, and here we are running low on artillery and other munitions for a current conflict and perhaps a MUCH larger China/Taiwan conflict in the near future. I don't get it?
Well if we get Joe again, we wont have to worry about a war with China, JoeB will just hand them the keys!
Besides we'll be out of all our ammo by then...:A Outta:
 
Well if we get Joe again, we wont have to worry about a war with China, JoeB will just hand them the keys!
Besides we'll be out of all our ammo by then...:A Outta:
I've read recently where 18 BILLION of defensive weapons Taiwan purchased have still not been delivered to them. Why? It's because Sleepy, Creepy Brandon is so risk adverse and bent on appeasing China that Taiwan hasn't received them. He's the Neville Chamberlain of our time and we saw how that worked out. He's already handed the keys to China.
 
What I fail to see is: The govt says only 3% of the military budget is going to Ukraine, however what has been sent to Ukraine has seriously depleted the US military stockpile of arms/equipment. How could a miniscule proportion like 3% be even noticeable in the US military?
I agree. With a $600 BILLION military budget, how/why is our military running out of 155mm artillery shells and other offensive weapons including Stingers? I read recently where it'll take EIGHT years to produce more Stingers. The Russian/Ukraine fiasco comes way after China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for years. The "on time" supply chain mentality works somewhat for civilian car parts but it seems to me the military should be thinking differently? We stored and maintained military chemical munitions for DECADES with no intentions of using them ever again, and here we are running low on artillery and other munitions for a current conflict and perhaps a MUCH larger China/Taiwan conflict in the near future. I don't get it?
I am not sure what stock pile has been depleted. Unfortunately, I still hear and feel the Army/CIA blowing up “old” munitions. I am not sure what the Army/CIA calls old, but I have ammo dating back to the 30’s that I’ve still used. @Red Leg any insight what the army call old?

We are and we aren't.

We have mainly sent munitions and excess vehicles and combat platforms under the Presidential draw down authority. The latest military assistance cases have been for new or future production, some paid by Ukraine and some part of our apportionment for military assistance.

Munitions are the primary line item that needs to be actually replenished. For instance, one of the high use items is the 155mm HE artillery round. It is hard to price just one, but 2000 USD per round is probably pretty close for new production depending upon how many DOD wishes to order over what time line.

But let us say the army wants to replenish 10 million artillery rounds (that is a lot, but let's say a mixture of those provided to Ukraine and additional rounds based upon the Chinese threat). That means a total cost to DOD of around $20 billion. That seems like a lot. However, ATK can't build 10 mil rounds in one year. I suspect they will be lucky to churn out a million with increased capacity. But that means that $20 billion will be amortized over at least a decade by using progress payments. Ergo a $1 billion a year tab.

But recall that a single F-35 fighter costs around $82 billion. The US Air Force is procuring a total of of over 1500. Do the math. Military support for Ukraine is actually little more than a round off number with respect to actual defense dollars.

Another factor is that a lot of the ammunition we have provided had short shelf-life. Rockets and missiles significantly shorter than things like HE rounds and rifle ammunition. Those munitions are regularly de-milled at considerable cost annually. De-milling them against Russian tanks and infantry actually saves money.

I don't know, but I suspect the major concerns are Patriot munitions, Javelins, and GPS guided artillery rounds (HE and MLRS). They are more expensive and have relatively short shelf and/or technology life. The Army will typically maintain the bare minimum to meet operational requirements because of that turnover. Fortunately, due to Iraq and Afghanistan there was an abundance of Javelins. But I have no doubt new production is being ordered. All that said, I have no doubt sufficient stocks are available currently for a major contingency against any realistic foe that the Army would fight.

Army munitions really aren't an issue with respect to China. I'll offer a little secret. We are very, very, very unlikely to find a way to fight a land war with China - or they with us. It will be naval and air power. We have provided virtually nothing to Ukraine from those stocks.
 
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We are and we aren't.

We have mainly sent munitions and excess vehicles and combat platforms under the Presidential draw down authority. The latest military assistance cases have been for new or future production, some paid by Ukraine and some part of our apportionment for military assistance.

Munitions are the primary line item that needs to be actually replenished. For instance, one of the high use items is the 155mm HE artillery round. It is hard to price just one, but 2000 USD per round is probably pretty close for new production depending upon how many DOD wishes to order over what time line.

But let us say the army wants to replenish 10 million artillery rounds (that is a lot, but let's say a mixture of those provided to Ukraine and additional rounds based upon the Chinese threat). That means a total cost to DOD of around $20 billion. That seems like a lot. However, ATK can't build 10 mil rounds in one year. I suspect they will be lucky to churn out a million with increased capacity. But that means that $20 billion will be amortized over at least a decade by using progress payments. Ergo a $1 billion a year tab.

But recall that a single F-35 fighter costs around $82 billion. The US Air Force is procuring a total of of over 1500. Do the math. Military support for Ukraine is actually little more than a round off number with respect to actual defense dollars.

Another factor is that a lot of the ammunition we have provided had short shelf-life. Rockets and missiles significantly shorter than things like HE rounds and rifle ammunition. Those munitions are regularly de-milled at considerable cost annually. De-milling them against Russian tanks and infantry actually saves money.

I don't know, but I suspect the major concerns are Patriot munitions, Javelins, and GPS guided artillery rounds (HE and MLRS). They are more expensive and have relatively short shelf and/or technology life. The Army will typically maintain the bare minimum to meet operational requirements because of that turnover. Fortunately, due to Iraq and Afghanistan there was an abundance of Javelins. But I have no doubt new production is being ordered. All that said, I have no doubt sufficient stocks are available currently for a major contingency against any realistic foe that the Army would fight.

Army munitions really aren't an issue with respect to China. I'll offer a little secret. We are very, very, very unlikely to find a way to fight a land war with China - or they with us. It will be naval and air power. We have provided virtually nothing to Ukraine from those stocks.
Thank you for your expertise on this subject. With regards to a China/Taiwan conflict, how confident are you that we can replace the MASSIVE amounts of expended Naval and aircraft cruise missiles, rockets and other munitions used in the conflict in a timely manner? I ask this because it seems everything is high tech now requiring a computer chip(s) and I’m wondering how the military and defense contractors are addressing this logistics issue when we’re embroiled in a current conflict that may last for weeks/months? Thank you.
 
Thank you for your expertise on this subject. With regards to a China/Taiwan conflict, how confident are you that we can replace the MASSIVE amounts of expended Naval and aircraft cruise missiles, rockets and other munitions used in the conflict in a timely manner? I ask this because it seems everything is high tech now requiring a computer chip(s) and I’m wondering how the military and defense contractors are addressing this logistics issue when we’re embroiled in a current conflict that may last for weeks/months? Thank you.
Weeks or months? How about years? Everyone in power pretty much says as JoeB did, "as long as it takes", with no real plan on what that is supposed to look like of course.
 
Thank you for your expertise on this subject. With regards to a China/Taiwan conflict, how confident are you that we can replace the MASSIVE amounts of expended Naval and aircraft cruise missiles, rockets and other munitions used in the conflict in a timely manner? I ask this because it seems everything is high tech now requiring a computer chip(s) and I’m wondering how the military and defense contractors are addressing this logistics issue when we’re embroiled in a current conflict that may last for weeks/months? Thank you.
Where does this notion come from? I have seen it on other sites. We have delivered ZERO naval or aircraft cruise missiles to Ukraine - nada - none. To date, the only air munitions have been a few dozen JDAM bombs (of which we have thousands of kits) and a small number of HARM anti radar missiles. This has a less than negligible impact on air force or naval capability.

It frustrates me that the conservative press gives the impression we have provided any of these sorts of munitions to Ukraine.

Ukraine does have a dozen or so US Harpoon anti-ship missiles on truck mounted launchers provided by Denmark.

With respect to new procurement, Ukraine is generally not getting our latest production. For instance the M1A2 tanks they will receive will be the export version without Chobham armor.
 
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Weeks or months? How about years? Everyone in power pretty much says as JoeB did, "as long as it takes", with no real plan on what that is supposed to look like of course.
This isn't Afghanistan. It - is - Ukraine - doing - the - fighting. It strikes me that they should have a vote in the length of time they are willing to sacrifice to preserve their right to exist. Either Ukraine or Russia will decide this war is no longer worth the cost and seek a negotiated settlement. I think it would be counter our national interests were we to support Russia in such a conclusion to the conflict.
 
millions, billions , trillions... eh.... but who's counting. I think an F35 is about $80 million with the upgraded engine
 
millions, billions , trillions... eh.... but who's counting. I think an F35 is about $80 million with the upgraded engine
Duh. You are correct - typing too fast. :A Bang Head:
 
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I have yet to see anyone lay out what our national interest is, beyond inane things like "well, if we dont stop Putin now he will just keep going", when there is nothing to suggest that is valid.
I continue to be very skeptical of the whole thing.
I am so bored with hearing this, but I'll go over it one last time. RedLeg provided a precis of the Eisenhower speech, but if you scroll back I have a more detailed review of that. Enough.

US interests? Try this:
We all speak of a chip shortage. You know we need neon to etch chips, right? And where (at least two years ago) does a large part of the world's neon production originate?

See if you can find where the wiring harness in your car was made.

Then there are little things like "worldwide food supply", specifically grain. Remember back in the 80s, when US family farms were being foreclosed? Do you remember the real reason for that? Long story, but it starts with shortages in Ukraine.

That's just the start...
 
Russia, given its topography, is hard to defend. Flat and featureless steps make invasion, if timed to avoid Russia’s great General, it’s horrific winters, relatively easy.
Except nobody has occupied it yet.
The largest country in the world
Country on two continents, that occupies maybe 10% of worlds land mass, and has 11 time zones.
It will be hard to walk across, not to mention to fight to occupy it.

If we speak only of natural resources and averages, 10% is a lot. (oil, gas, ore, etc)
Not to mention access to Arctic waters. (and underwater resources)
With global waming (if it exists), nothern arctic sea routes will open new shipping routes under their control. (Something Britain once had with control of Suez and Gibraltar.)
 
Where does this notion come from? I have seen it on other sites. We have delivered ZERO naval or aircraft cruise missiles to Ukraine - nada - none. To date, the only air munitions have been a few dozen JDAM bombs (of which we have thousands of kits) and a small number of HARM anti radar missiles. This has a less than negligible impact on air force or naval capability.

It frustrates me that the conservative press gives the impression we have provided any of these sorts of munitions to Ukraine.

Ukraine does have a dozen or so US Harpoon anti-ship missiles on truck mounted launchers provided by Denmark.

With respect to new procurement, Ukraine is generally not getting our latest production. For instance the M1A2 tanks they will receive will be the export version without Chobham armor.
I know we haven’t given those items you’ve described to Ukraine. I was only questioning our ability to manufacture high tech munitions in a timely manner to replace those that would be lost in a major conflict? Apparently we’re short on sufficient supplies of Stingers, artillery shells and who knows what else right now. As you’ve pointed out, a China/Taiwan conflict would involve Naval and air assets. Hopefully, we’re not short on cruise and other missiles and can replace the many used in a timely manner during a major conflict. I guess my point is the munitions should be available in sufficient quantities BEFORE we’re engaged in a conflict and not trying to figure out how we’re going to replace them during the conflict?
 

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