Interesting new analysis from Foreign Policy as reported by the New York Post which notes the short life expectancy of new Russian soldiers upon arrival at the actual front. From enlistment to arrival at the front is between 10 days to three weeks, illustrating the abysmal level of training this cannon fodder is receiving. Once there, he is dead or severely wounded in less than an hour. Several recent reports, to include from Russian military bloggers, indicate Russian casualty rates are now running 8 to 1. The vast majority of these casualties are from drone strikes (see below), which offer far more accurate casualty assessments than traditional BDA following an artillery strike.
Those losses are now exceeding 30,000 a month with the new added burden of long gas lines and strike drones flying over the Russian capital region.
Once on the battlefield, Russian soldiers are being picked off in an average of 20 to 35 minutes, according to reports.
nypost.com
As noted in the Foreign Policy article, Putin is looking ever more like a drowning man, perhaps encouraging him to attempt something desperate to change the current calculus.
Yes, you are absolutely right there and the analysis I believe to be spot on. The Russian losses are truly staggering and also their economy does not look good at all. They are isolated. Sanctioned.
Still, there are talk from credible sources about a new possible Russian general mobilization after the Sept elections. This will eventually have huge implications of course on the Russian society.
If true, all thing considered the top brass, Putin included can seem out of touch with reality, and they are obviously in a no-win situation at least in Ukraine for now. On the basis of this, one can definitely say Putin can seem like a drowning man.
Ukraine will most likely soon have Gripen fighter jets with modern long range air to air missiles and lots of other capability's, they will also probably soon have the ability to manufacture their own long rang ballistic missiles. These things can and will absolutely hammer the Russians eventually if fully unleashed. Its a kind of strange, like are they totally blind? Don`t the see the writing on the wall?
So, one can wonder what this is all about. It is a little worrying in fact.
When the Russians invaded Afghanistan the babushka`s revolted when the casualty numbers reached like 26-30.000 if I`m not mistaken. Now, Total Russian casualty's since 2022 are estimated to be over 1,4 mill soldiers and it is still comparatively quiet.. So I guess its a lot more to it this time. They seem hell bent on achieving their objectives (whatever they are) at any cost.
Nazi Germany had their sights on Ukraine as the EU have now (actually since like, 2008 in reality?, correct me if I`m wrong there). Is it about Putins legacy maybe? Is it about restoring some of the old USSR borders? All of the above?
I think the Russians have done some terrible miscalculations and they don`t seem to be able to get out of the mess they have created.
Seriously wish I had a glass bowl to see the future in.