COVID-19 Coronavirus UPDATES, BANS, CLOSURES, ADVISORY, etc.

EricB said:

I'm with you on that. Just found out today that I'll be taking a month off of work on the government's dime, which only pays half of what I was making before all this crap.

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At least you get half a check.

BRICKBURN said:

Apparently we have tested nearly 15,000 people in Alberta alone, while I am hearing reports that the entire USA has only tested around 30,000.
March 18, 2020

Aberrant reporting or what?

Anyone know who's in control of those stats in the US?

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Don't know for sure, but I think the Health care industry has to file a report. CDC?

Some are saying the CDC got caught with their pants down on the availability of test kits for an outbreak.? Not really surprising.

Scott CWO said:

Actually, the Chinese data shows that same age group accounting for the most cases so of course they will also make up a lot of the hospitalizations. However, they don't have the mortality rate that would correspond.

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While it is correct this group doesn't usually account for the deaths, it doesn't change the fact that those people will likely die if the the hospitals are overwhelmed. That is the biggest issue here and illustrates the need for people to stop acting like it's nothing and still doing whatever they want. I AM looking at the data, more so than you it would seem....

Since this isn't the political thread, I'm not getting into other than to say a large part of the world is facing a depression now, it's not just an american issue and wasn't caused by anyone

Albert GRANT said:

While it is correct this group doesn't usually account for the deaths, it doesn't change the fact that those people will likely die if the the hospitals are overwhelmed. That is the biggest issue here and illustrates the need for people to stop acting like it's nothing and still doing whatever they want. I AM looking at the data, more so than you it would seem....

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So tell me......what is all this data solving?
What is the end result of this data, and statistics.

There are more important issues out there, then age groups, and percentage points on a frickin graph.

US currently only testing people showing or suspected of the virus. They are expected to ramp that up. Testing is good but also has some flaws-
Not sure how the reporting works but the Johns Hopkins site (make sure it’s the legit site) is the best I have found. They do daily updates and reports and Seem very accurate.
There are some important age dynamics to consider by region-look at your community, is the majority old or young. Nursing homes tend to be not only elderly but also specific health needs. (Hence the required nursing part of that)
So then when the paramedics arrive to work a heart attack, they are high risk to become carriers if not actually show signs and symptoms. Not knowing they are infected they could share it with hospitals, families other paramedics and on and on. So everyone gets a time out (quarantine if you prefer) to get tested at that point. That’s just the example I am familiar with.
It spreads like wildfire and those who don’t get sick become carrriers so it spreads more. Precautions, precautions precautions no matter where you work!
This one just seems to spread very very easily.

Scott CWO said:

You are incorrect in reference to what this study considers underlying complications. They are cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension and cancer. No mention of age and obesity. Age and obesity are not underlying conditions or the death rate would be enormous.

Underlying conditions in no way cover 40% of the US population.

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Actually, hypertension alone comes close to covering 40% of the population. In the study the condition was self-reported, which might mean it only captured those who were being treated for hypertension. About 9.5% of Americans are diabetic, 10% have been diagnosed with cardiovascular disease, 4-5% are current cancer patients or in remission, and 10-11% have chronic respiratory disease. Obviously, these conditions frequently overlap, but trying to build a work force free of any of these conditions, that also has the requisite skills and experience isn't going to be easy in most industries.

Brent in Az said:

So tell me......what is all this data solving?
What is the end result of this data, and statistics.

There are more important issues out there, then age groups, and percentage points on a frickin graph.

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The data doesn't solve anything, what it does it show where those bigger issues are that you reference. The economy IS NOT the issue right now, once this clears up it will bounce back. The SINGLE BIGGEST issue we have right now is the possibility of hospitals being over whelmed and the only way to prevent that is for people to stay at home as much as possible and realize it's not all about them. The data shows this is more than just a flu, that people are spreading it around without evening knowing they have it, that many of the people needing life saving medical attention are in a range younger than people think and are only alive because of access to the medical help, and that it is decimating older folks who do not deserve to die suffering from a virus that is now,currently, mainly being passed around by the ignorant and selfish!

Brent in Az said:

So tell me......what is all this data solving?
What is the end result of this data, and statistics.

There are more important issues out there, then age groups, and percentage points on a frickin graph.

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Yep. Not only are statistics no good, they’re outright hostile. A stat tried to mug me last week.

A set of data can be used to paint lots of different pictures, but for every misleading half-truth graph there are hundreds of honest attempts to present useful data in a consumable way. Probability and statistics are how science extrapolates conclusions that fix problems.

If you chronograph ten shots of your pet load how do you feel about your conclusions about the speed of the next ten rounds? If you take ten deer with an A-Frame of your pet load and recover ten perfectly mushroomed bullets how do you feel about your ability to assert the excellence of your pet load?

It seems to me that broad criticism of statistics and general efforts at scienceing is unproductive.

Albert GRANT said:

The data doesn't solve anything, what it does it show where those bigger issues are that you reference. The economy IS NOT the issue right now, once this clears up it will bounce back. The SINGLE BIGGEST issue we have right now is the possibility of hospitals being over whelmed and the only way to prevent that is for people to stay at home as much as possible and realize it's not all about them. The data shows this is more than just a flu, that people are spreading it around without evening knowing they have it, that many of the people needing life saving medical attention are in a range younger than people think and are only alive because of access to the medical help, and that it is decimating older folks who do not deserve to die suffering from a virus that is now,currently, mainly being passed around by the ignorant and selfish!

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Standard Velocity said:

Yep. Not only are statistics no good, they’re outright hostile. A stat tried to mug me last week.

A set of data can be used to paint lots of different pictures, but for every misleading half-truth graph there are hundreds of honest attempts to present useful data in a consumable way. Probability and statistics are how science extrapolates conclusions that fix problems.

If you chronograph ten shots of your pet load how do you feel about your conclusions about the speed of the next ten rounds? If you take ten deer with an A-Frame of your pet load and recover ten perfectly mushroomed bullets how do you feel about your ability to assert the excellence of your pet load?

It seems to me that broad criticism of statistics and general efforts at scienceing is unproductive.

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We have seemed to agree on most things over this, but here is where I play devils advocate- I hate statistics, they can be manipulated into what ever you want by changing subsets, etc. I rarely quote stats, and agree that you need to look at these carefully, and not all are trustworthy. HOWEVER you can't fake deaths, numbers of hospitalized, and positive tests

Brent in Az said:

At least you get half a check.

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True, plus the check that Trump's trying to get out.
I'm looking forward to time with the family, been working 7 days a week every chance I get so the slowdown is actually welcome.

Albert GRANT said:

We have seemed to agree on most things over this, but here is where I play devils advocate- I hate statistics, they can be manipulated into what ever you want by changing subsets, etc. I rarely quote stats, and agree that you need to look at these carefully, and not all are trustworthy. HOWEVER you can't fake deaths, numbers of hospitalized, and positive tests

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Agreed. It is up to the reader to be critical of the data and how it is presented. It’s difficult to suss out the validity of the data, motivation of the researchers, motivation of the writer, etc. but a wary reader should be able to discard the turds that float to the top.

After that, using sources who have proven reliable in the past and using a variety of sources with unique data sets should give a reasonable understanding of available information.

Attempting to understand the available information is about all most of us are equipped to do. Wildassed uninformed speculation based on “ma gut” has worked before, but the data shows a much higher rate of failure than success.

Perhaps time for some better, if not good, news? This blog post contains a number of statements, all of which are linked to their source, and all of the sources are reputable (except perhaps the New York Times, but hey, in these difficult times, you take what you can get).

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/good-news-covid-19

One interesting statement in this blog is that a vaccine is in the first stages of being tested - in Seattle no less (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-vaccine.html).

And another statement:

IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER… While everyone is concerned about the super-high mortality rate of this virus — which is calculated by the “number dead” divided by “the number who have tested positive” (currently ~8,000/200,000) — the denominator, i.e. the number infected is actually VERY hard to know because so few people have been tested.

It may well be that 10x more are infected but subclinical. So is the mortality rate 4% or 0.4%?

We often hear people pointing to the flu as a comparison. While I realize that the flu is communicable, and cardiovascular disease is not, it's interesting to note that cardiovascular disease kills over 17 million (that's right - million, according to the WHO) people a year, globally. That's one person every 18 seconds or so. So far, Covid-19 has killed exactly 9,351 people. I'd have thought the issue wasn't how people get something, but how many people die of something, but obviously I'd be wrong.

One of the more interesting angles on this issue, and one which bothers me the most, is the position taken by the media. The media - and for some reason politicians - seem quite happy to provide as bleak a picture as possible of what's going on. Maybe that's in order to justify the control measures governments are taking? And make no mistake - governments are taking control of virtually every aspect of our day-to-day lives. Will we return to "free and democratic" societies when this is over? Or will people be prepared to cede more control to government in the hopes of avoiding a similar outbreak in the future?

I'm not suggesting that there is a conspiracy afoot, but that once government takes something over, we can quickly get to a "new normal" in terms of who is in control, which may be some way from where we were before the interventions.

Today in Madrid, a large hotel has been converted in a temporary medical facility for those who are infected, but not critical. More hotels will be used as such as needed.

Retired medical personnel are being asked to come back to work, and medical students are also being urged to volunteer. The Armed Forces are in full alert and helping in any way they can.

The situation is still getting worse, best hope is it will be under control in two months.

I just fear what is going to happen in Africa when the virus spreads there.

Nyati said:

Today in Madrid, a large hotel has been converted in a temporary medical facility for those who are infected, but not critical. More hotels will be used as such as needed.

Retired medical personnel are being asked to come back to work, and medical students are also being urged to volunteer. The Armed Forces are in full alert and helping in any way they can.

The situation is still getting worse, best hope is it will be under control in two months.

I just fear what is going to happen in Africa when the virus spreads there.

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Whatsapped with my outfitter in the Northern Cape. He said no cases in his area or in Blomfontein. The big worry is it taking hold in the shantytowns and on that count, RSA is literally sweating bullets.

Hogpatrol said:

Whatsapped with my outfitter in the Northern Cape. He said no cases in his area or in Blomfontein. The big worry is it taking hold in the shantytowns and on that count, RSA is literally sweating bullets.

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Exactly my friend, I would feel quite safe in my outfitters property near Kimberley, the problem lies in cities, the largest, the easiest for the virus to spread.

Did anyone see the guy on Fox News yesterday, well I saw it yesterday, could have been earlier than that. He was on Tucker Carlson's show. This guy claimed that France used the same drug that they use for malaria on 40 people that were positive for this virus and all 40 were cured.
I'm no doctor, so maybe someone else knows if there is any truth to this. If so, would those of us that have been vaccinated for malaria be resistant to the virus?

spike.t said:

What did I miss?...... Got a few tins to go with the gin......

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Below is what you missed. Of course they are using Chloroquine instead of Quinine (Tonic Water).

Dee S said:

Did anyone see the guy on Fox News yesterday, well I saw it yesterday, could have been earlier than that. He was on Tucker Carlson's show. This guy claimed that France used the same drug that they use for malaria on 40 people that were positive for this virus and all 40 were cured.
I'm no doctor, so maybe someone else knows if there is any truth to this. If so, would those of us that have been vaccinated for malaria be resistant to the virus?

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