How big a Cape buffalo population must be in southern Africa to be called self-sustaining?

BlackRhino

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Since my earliest hunting days, I have adhered to the principles of classical hunting, always guided by high ethical standards. I view hunting as an integral part of nature and as a sustainable use of biological resources. To this day, I have consistently limited myself to hunting game of wild, free-roaming populations in Canada, Namibia, and different European countries. Personally, I find hunting in small, fenced areas deeply repugnant.
Applying these principles to Cape buffalo hunting, however, becomes more complex when budgetary limitations come into play. Can self-sustaining buffalo populations still be ethically and practically hunted in South Africa? Certainly, it is possible in large areas such as the greater Kruger region, including Timbavati and similar reserves. Yet, what about smaller, though still relatively large, fenced areas? What criteria must be met to ensure that a buffalo herd is genuinely self-sustaining?
A logical starting point is the ecological carrying capacity of the area. This requires careful consideration of several factors, including: (1) soil conditions, encompassing fertility and water storage capacity; (2) annual rainfall; (3) seasonality; and (4) competition with other animal species that utilize the same or similar water and plant resources as buffalo. Ideally, all of these variables must be evaluated to determine whether a population can sustain itself without artificial supplementation.

Approximate carrying‐capacity range for South African contexts

Based on the considerations outlined above, one can estimate approximate ranges for buffalo carrying capacity—that is, the number of animals the land can support without ecological degradation. In lower-productivity areas, characterized by drier conditions, poorer soils, and limited water resources, the carrying density may be around 0.5 to 1 animal per square kilometer. In areas of moderate productivity, with good rainfall, fertile soils, and artificial waterholes, the range increases to approximately 1 to 2 animals per square kilometer. For the purposes of this discussion, we will adopt 1 animal per square kilometer as a reasonable approximation.
Area size is another crucial factor. Relatively small, fenced reserves can generally be excluded from consideration. Among the larger hunting grounds in South Africa, notable examples include Klaserie Private Nature Reserve (148,000 acres, estimated carrying capacity ~600), Timbavati Nature Reserve (132,400 acres, ~530), Songimvelo Nature Reserve (119,000 acres, ~480), Tshipise Nature Reserve (54,000 acres, ~220), Nyara Game Reserve (25,000 acres, ~250), Blouberg Nature Reserve (23,000 acres, ~90), and Pongola Private Game Reserve (11,000 acres, ~45). For the sake of argument, let us assume that these areas have achieved their full ecological carrying capacity, though actual population sizes may be somewhat higher.

Minimum viable population size of buffalo
For a self-sustaining buffalo population, it is not the census size but the genetically effective population size that matters. Not all individuals contribute equally to the gene pool of the next generation. Effective population size genereally depends on factors such as:
  • the sex ratio (males versus breeding females),
  • variance in reproductive success,
  • overlapping generations, and
  • fluctuations in population size (e.g. bottlencks due to deseases).

The African Cape buffalo has a complex breeding pattern that varies with environmental conditions, particularly rainfall and food availability and affects the effective population size.
  • Cape buffalo do not have a strict breeding season across all regions; instead, timing depends on rainfall patterns.
  • In Highveld, Lowveld, Kruger National Park, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Free State, and much of the North West and Eastern Cape interior we have distinct wet and dry seasons. Therefore, most conceptions occur in October shortly after the rainy season begins, when food is abundant and females are in good condition.
  • Females usually give birth to a single calf; twins are rare.
  • Calving peaks often occur at the end of the rainy season (February/March), ensuring ample food for lactating mothers and growing calves.
  • Females reach sexual maturity at 3–4 years of age.
  • Males mature sexually around 4–6 years, but dominant bulls usually do not breed until 8 years or older, when they are strong enough to compete for mates.
  • Males form bachelor groups when not dominant and do not contribute significantly to mating.
  • During the mating season, dominant bulls join female herds and compete for access to cows in estrus.
For buffalo, a reasonable scientific estimate is that roughly one-third of the census population represents the effective population size. In conservation biology, a commonly cited guideline is the 50/500 rule, which recommends a minimum effective population of 50 individuals to avoid short-term inbreeding depression, and 500 individuals to ensure long-term evolutionary health. Some conservation geneticists even advocate doubling these numbers.
If effective population sizes fall below these thresholds, either natural gene flow through migration across reserve boundaries, or human-assisted gene flow, via animal translocations, is required to maintain genetic health.

Considering these factors, only the Greater Kruger area and perhaps one or two of the largest private reserves meet the criteria for self-sustaining buffalo populations. This does not imply that hunting in smaller reserves is unethical, but it does mean that such hunting cannot be considered targeting truly self-sustaining herds.

Please see my thoughts not as preachy comments. Originally, I simply dug into this matter because I was looking for an area to hunt buffalo in a self-sustaining herd. However, we hunters are increasingly confronted with anti-hunting arguments, and I believe that the most effective way to respond is by presenting well-reasoned, substantive arguments.
 
Please see my thoughts not as preachy comments. Originally, I simply dug into this matter because I was looking for an area to hunt buffalo in a self-sustaining herd. However, we hunters are increasingly confronted with anti-hunting arguments, and I believe that the most effective way to respond is by presenting well-reasoned, substantive arguments.
All above written in previous post does not take into account total numbers of other animals, and total numbers of other species. All of them use same natural resources, grass, water, etc. My doubts start when I see buffalo "free range" but fenced plus 20-30 of other species in average hunting area of less then 10.000 Hectars. Next variable is actual number of older specimens taken as trophy. Read: how many hunters per years have visited the area? And those numbers while we as clients can ask, most likely will never know.

In Europan hunting areas free range, of average carrying capacity - 5000 hectars with red deer, boar, roe deer (3 main species) accumulates to total of about 120 animals per year offtake, including trophy, and non trophy or females, and all ages as per GMP, all together

Economically wise, true free range, selfsustaining and most economic dangerous game hunting starts at Zimbabwe. Moreover, smaller but still respectable size Zimbabwe buffalo with horns 36 - 40 inch is somewhat more expensive in average then south African cousin, a big Zimbabwe buffalo over 40 inch horn, most likely will be cheaper then south African counterpart priced per inch of horn,
So my advice for buffalo self sustaining herd, 100% "free range" guarantee - go to Zim.

If you move to big 5 full list, the perspective must make compromise. Rhino darted or hunted will be in fence. And the cheapest lion hunt is CBL (captive bread lion) hunted in south africa. Wild lions are about 10 times more expensive then CBL. So, South Africa is the place to go, if you need to complete big 5 ever, having in mind economical or practical limitations.
 
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Maybe you’re overthinking this. As long as the property matches or exceeds the natural range of a non migratory animal, and the game has the same opportunity to escape as their “free range” counterparts, I see no real ethical difference. If anything, heavily hunted animals are far more wary than backcountry animals unused to human proximity.
 

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