Hang in there

Vashper

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My cousin in TX told me that people are posting your address on Facebook if they think you have too many lights on in your house for wasting power.
During the war, the patrols simply shot at the windows that violated the blackout mode.
 

WAB

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During the war, the patrols simply shot at the windows that violated the blackout mode.

Well those windows shoot back in Texas.
 

Wheels

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I’m in the power business, and I understand exactly why ‘fair’ is not the right question. There are a lot of utilities that will be going bankrupt due to this.

Understand exactly where you are coming from. Have a feeling some form of partial bailout will happen.

Many utilities were not hedged. Black Swan's happen. CEO's and Boards that do not have a plan in place for an event like this should be held accountable. Doubt that will happen however.
 

Vashper

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I can't answer that but we already know here in Texas that during extreme cold and especially wet conditions, we often lose black buck, nilgai and axis in large numbers in that order. Other horned animals such as oryx also seem to be susceptible. These animals have been acclimated to Texas for over 50+ yrs in most situations and yes they are better equipped for hot conditions rather than cold.
As for the fish... well that's also a weather dependent condition. Our speckled (spotted) trout don't do well in water colder than 40 degree F for over 24 hrs and our bay water dropped into the 30s or lower for 3-4 days straight. There are a lot of fishing guides that are going to suffer for next 5-10 yrs.


So how do your whitetails which have been acclimated to the hot environment for much longer than 50 years fair when it gets this cold. Do you see any death loss with them? It's really interesting how the exotics respond to it.
 

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Those are some fine pictures Mr Richter!
TY. My Dad (RIP) always taught us to be prepared to shoot (whether with a gun or camera!) Plenty of photo-ops where I live!
 

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Good question. TPWD will probably have some info on whitetail die off sometime in the future. These kind of cold snaps are very rare in Texas, so the die off of native wildlife may not be well documented. I just hope there is a massive fire ant die off.
 

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I remember the massive pronghorn die off in the early 90’s in Wyoming. The blizzard drove them until they hit a fence and then they stacked up like cordwood. Dead by the thousands. Game and Fish had been begging us to shoot them due to overpopulation. Shoot 5 does and they’d give you a second buck tag. We couldn’t thin them down enough so Mother Nature stepped in.
 

buck wild

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So how do your whitetails which have been acclimated to the hot environment for much longer than 50 years fair when it gets this cold. Do you see any death loss with them? It's really interesting how the exotics respond to it.
We rarely lose our native deer to to weather conditions. The really old might have perished with this cold snap, but our native deer die more to naturally occurring anthrax in the South West areas more than anything.
 

Vashper

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I remember the massive pronghorn die off in the early 90’s in Wyoming. The blizzard drove them until they hit a fence and then they stacked up like cordwood. Dead by the thousands. Game and Fish had been begging us to shoot them due to overpopulation. Shoot 5 does and they’d give you a second buck tag. We couldn’t thin them down enough so Mother Nature stepped in.
Mother Nature doesn't know such things as a fence (in this case) or concrete irrigation canals in Central Asia, where whole herds of saigas are drowning. In addition, of course, self-regulation exists, but it seems that nature is not so eager to simply maintain a certain homeostasis indefinitely. She wouldn't be too upset if someone just disappeared. Therefore, we also need to defend our own interests, and specifically, to understand why some animals die in the Arctic vortex, and some survive.
 

sgt_zim

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amazing. 7 days ago right this minute, it was 65º colder. I've put all my tomatoes and peppers out in the 80º sunshine for the afternoon.
 

Vashper

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amazing. 7 days ago right this minute, it was 65º colder. I've put all my tomatoes and peppers out in the 80º sunshine for the afternoon.
And I have a temperature differential of 60 of these your Farentgeit for two days. Yesterday morning it was -26C (barely started the car), tomorrow morning they promise +4C. But such tropics are only for a couple of days, then there will be normal weather - a small minus C.
The main difference from Minnesota is that although the peak values are comparable, the duration of winter is longer by two to three months.
 

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we can almost never say "it was 65º colder last week." most years, we don't get more than 1 or 2 nights of freezing weather, and then only for a few hours around dawn. many years, there isn't a 65º difference between our hottest day in July/August and our coldest night in Dec/Jan/Feb

The duration of our summer is May - October - not unusual at all for afternoons here in early October to still be 90ºF/33ºC and breath-takingly humid.
 

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Saw a news report last night. I haven't verified it.

Evidently Oklahoma Gas and Electric's natural gas bill stands at $1.5 billion, so far for February. Their normal annual natural gas bill is around $380 million.

It will be interesting to see if federal emergency funds pay off some of this or if the Corporation Commission (regulating authority) will allow parts of it to be amortized into future payments.

Most customers will not be able to pay a monthly bill that is X4 their normal annual invoice.
 

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Saw a news report last night. I haven't verified it.

Evidently Oklahoma Gas and Electric's natural gas bill stands at $1.5 billion, so far for February. Their normal annual natural gas bill is around $380 million.

It will be interesting to see if federal emergency funds pay off some of this or if the Corporation Commission (regulating authority) will allow parts of it to be amortized into future payments.

Most customers will not be able to pay a monthly bill that is X4 their normal annual invoice.


A couple months ago, the cost to hedge natural gas at a manageable rate of possibly $20/mcf (when the spot price was <$4) would have been negligible. OGE paid some marginal rates over $1300/mcf.

A poor job of risk management imo.
 

Philip Glass

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Judging by the online climate map, the invasion of Arctic air in Texas has almost stopped; and I think solarization will help raise the temperature, yet geographic latitude matters.
There was a recent thread here about the survival of exotic animals in the cold, there was a perfectly correct remark about the need for a"barn and a chow". But there is a third element, which is very important for some - the availability of water. Not everyone can eat snow. Moreover, even those animals that are adapted to a normal winter, still try to use watering holes. Here I found a recent photo: a washout on a stream. All around are the tracks of beavers that support this hole in the ice, and the tracks of roe deer. The temperature is about -10C.
View attachment 389658

How to provide such a watering hole? Of course, it is difficult, there is not a running stream with beavers everywhere; you either need to maintain the hole manually, or throw a pipe with air supply to the bottom, as is done in zoos and some farms. This, by the way, saves the fish from lack of oxygen.

Cattle really need water but the other animals not so much. Interestingly the Axis were the first to drink when I would break ice! It’s a challenge for us when this cold.
 

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Saw a news report last night. I haven't verified it.

Evidently Oklahoma Gas and Electric's natural gas bill stands at $1.5 billion, so far for February. Their normal annual natural gas bill is around $380 million.

It will be interesting to see if federal emergency funds pay off some of this or if the Corporation Commission (regulating authority) will allow parts of it to be amortized into future payments.

Most customers will not be able to pay a monthly bill that is X4 their normal annual invoice.

It’s a shame the nat gas plants froze up. Shouldn’t happen. One nearHouston froze so bad it will be months before it’s back online! This is due to deregulation that happened decades ago.
 

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A couple months ago, the cost to hedge natural gas at a manageable rate of possibly $20/mcf (when the spot price was mcf.

A poor job of risk management imo.

You can’t get the price you hedged if. I gas is available.everything froze up even pipelines! It must’ve fixed.
 

Wheels

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You can’t get the price you hedged if. I gas is available.everything froze up even pipelines! It must’ve fixed.

Agree that OG&E still has to pay the marginal rate of $1,300/mcf. for delivery at the height of the problems.

If OG&E had gone into the futures markets to buy calls that were way out, they get paid off in the financial markets.

They then use their gains in the financial markets to offset their cost of delivery at the height of the crisis. Thus they hedge a black swan type event.
 

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