mdwest, Israel has people deeply imbedded and will only expose their capability when they are in a all or nothing scenario.
I think this may be that time. I’m only guessing. But I would be surprised if they don’t “break the glass” and use that tightly concealed, in country asset now.
Israel has one of the best intelligence capabilities in the world no doubt… they also have extremely good SOF units..
That doesn’t get them 1500 feet below the surface into a concrete, steel, and lead reinforced bunker complex built under a mountain, that’s guarded by a brigade+ sized element that’s specifically tasked with access control and threat elimination…
Granted our (US) Red Cell type units have done some pretty remarkable things to expose weaknesses within our own nuke sites… it’s pretty amazing the things those guys have come up with over the years to gain access to Yucca Mtn, Y12, Pantex, etc… and I’m sure the Israelis have similar units with similar capabilities..
But again, Israel has a fraction of the budget, a fraction of the assets, and a fraction of the experience of their US peer units… and we are talking about an operation 1000+ miles away at a facility they likely have considerable knowledge of, but have never physically seen…
a manned, boots on the ground attack, whether solid assets are already in country or not would be a stretch of the capabilities of the finest and best supported units on the planet..
And as discussed earlier, Israel lacks the ordnance and the delivery platforms to hit the nuke facilities with anything other than a nuclear strike (conventional munitions in their possession aren’t going to get the job done)…
With US assistance, the probability of success goes up significantly… but I think it’s highly doubtful the current administration is going to provide the tools we have at our disposal to Israel for the purpose of a deep strike inside Irans borders…
I’m not saying an Israeli attack against Irans nuclear program can’t/wont happen…
I am saying its probability of success without US assistance is extremely low, no matter how they go about making an attempt..
They’d be far better served hitting targets that have a very high probability of success associated… a basic CARVER+SHOCK assessment based on what’s well known in the public domain would point the Israelis toward oil and gas, banking, and other economic infrastructure, and potentially toward a handful of military installations I believe…