Politics

[Tanks]

As I said before, it will end up being a Penny Stock. Wonder if it will be further impacted if Trump gets convicted.

 

[Hunt anything]

Thanks @rookhawk and @redleg, that was my thoughts but for the life of me I can’t recall the source the guy used but it definitely sounded a little far fetched to me.

 

[rookhawk]

As I said before, it will end up being a Penny Stock. Wonder if it will be further impacted if Trump gets convicted.

Trump is a lot of things, perhaps even the lesser of two evils to be the next President, but an ethical businessman he is not.

It would not surprise me whatsoever if he did a pump-and-dump on his own sheep shareholders, nor would it surprise me if he set up a series of shell corps to illegally short his own stock if it was going to tank.

I truly feel sympathy for the Trump zealots that bought his shares, use his tech platforms, and bought his buddy's pillows. It's one thing to vote your conscience and select him as a candidate, its another thing to blindly invest money into the absolute trash as-seen-on-TV junk he peddles for profit.

 

[Ed Lally]

Watching the news out of California. A small group (10 arrested) of pro Hamas protesters shut down the Golden Gate Bridge with what looked like 6 cars and a few chains for hours. Took 4+ hours to clear them off. I wonder how long it would take them to remove a few conservatives and 6 pickups with American flags?? “Rules for thee, but not for me!!” If I sat on that bridge for 4 hours, I would never vote Dem again, even though I haven’t since Kennedy. Meanwhile a bulkshit trial is taking place on the east coast. I don’t like Trump but this is really bulkshit.

 

[Red Leg]

I would have to assume both the domestic pressure and desire of the Israeli government to retaliate is overwhelming. One can easily imagine the expectations in this country had a huge wave of guided projectiles been launched against the Homeland. So, I would have to assume Israel will feel forced to act.

While Israel can damage Iranian infrastructure, I remain doubtful that it can do much to hamper the Iranian nuclear program. Even a ballistic missile with a conventional warhead won't rattle the furniture in a facility inside a mountain.

Assuming they do strike, it would be the best opportunity for the US to address the nuclear development problem decisively. I do not expect us to do so. The current NSC is very risk averse, and I suspect that there are members of that team and in State who still believe Iran can be negotiated out of a weapons' program.

Next few days will continue to be interesting.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Russia is vulnerable to Chinese expansion in the next decade

I have been wondering this as well.

 

[mdwest]

While Israel can damage Iranian infrastructure, I remain doubtful that it can do much to hamper the Iranian nuclear program. Even a ballistic missile with a conventional warhead won't rattle the furniture in a facility inside a mountain.

Completely agree..

Without going nuclear or without US assistance.. Israel lacks the ability to do anything via ballistic or cruise missile to thwart the Iranian nuclear program..

I think their only option there is SOF..

While Israeli SOF is very good as a rule.. and they have a LOT of recent experience... Based on the very little I know about the Iranian nuke program, I seriously doubt the Israelis have the assets or the capabilities to do much there with SOF either...

Were it me, and I was determined to strike back, I'd be looking to destroy their economy (they not only have to be able to manufacture drones and missiles, they have to be able to afford to manufacture them.. and an unstable economy makes for a very upset civilian populace which could provide Iran some other problems to focus their efforts on)..

I'd have every cyber asset I have (Israel has very strong cyber capability) dismantling Iranian banking systems, hacking Iranian military systems, attacking every large Iranian business that is aligned in any way with the Mullahs, etc.. and then I'd have my air force and naval assets focus on the oil and gas industry and all ports (sea and air) within reach...

If the world gets pissed off because the price of gas goes up another dollar a gallon, so be it.. we're I an Israeli, my position would be pretty simple.... "help us fix this problem.. lets rid the world of the mullahs, the proxy groups, and the terrorist cells... and the Iranian oil problem fixes itself in no time... we'll all be much happier in the long run with the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas gone from this earth, and all of the Iranian mullahs gone with them.. "...

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Months ago Peter Zeihan stated that there were 500,000 Russian casualties at that point. If that was true, and what you're asking is also true, Russia truly is extinct.

The war wages on, you end up with another 200k-300k casualties, there is an entire generation of breeders / producers missing from their population pyramid.

From the start (buried 100+ pages ago on this thread) I believed they were just going to let the conflict go on and on and on. It's in the interest of the west to have Russian cannibalize itself both by population, future production, and current resource consumption. That doesn't just win the battle of Ukraine, it wins the war with the Russian Federation forever.

Some other sources that may be less than the 500,000 number. A report in December of 23 used the casualty number as 315,000 out of a total 360,000 active service at the beginning of the conflict.

The only problem I see with this war of attrition backfiring is its happening on the Ukrainian side as well. There are limitless anecdotes of the Ukrainian women moving abroad and getting married/pregnant in other cultures. That is removing future breeding stock and future Ukrainian citizens from the future peace-time country. Ukraine will have to have massive peacetime immigration from its neighbors to be able to be a raw producer at scale in the future.

I can remember reading an article about the USSR 30 years ago, detailing the shortage of male workers. World War 2 decimated the male population. The article talked about how the national railroad had all female work crews, doing what would have been men's work in any other country. So this conflict will be a second wave of this male shortage problem.

 

[mdwest]

For those that might not understand/know how the Iranian government works.. this is an interesting (and thankfully short) article that explains it...

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP90-00965R000201420009-7.pdf

As a Shia Theocracy, no one man is really in charge (although one person can certainly be the single most influential and wield the most power)... Simply removing the current Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) doesnt change much.. you pretty much have to remove all of the Ayatollahs (roughly 120 of them), or at a minimum all of the Grand Ayatollahs (12).. Otherwise youre just hitting the reset button and it all starts over again..

 

[CoElkHunter]

Completely agree..

Without going nuclear or without US assistance.. Israel lacks the ability to do anything via ballistic or cruise missile to thwart the Iranian nuclear program..

I think their only option there is SOF..

While Israeli SOF is very good as a rule.. and they have a LOT of recent experience... Based on the very little I know about the Iranian nuke program, I seriously doubt the Israelis have the assets or the capabilities to do much there with SOF either...

Were it me, and I was determined to strike back, I'd be looking to destroy their economy (they not only have to be able to manufacture drones and missiles, they have to be able to afford to manufacture them.. and an unstable economy makes for a very upset civilian populace which could provide Iran some other problems to focus their efforts on)..

I'd have every cyber asset I have (Israel has very strong cyber capability) dismantling Iranian banking systems, hacking Iranian military systems, attacking every large Iranian business that is aligned in any way with the Mullahs, etc.. and then I'd have my air force and naval assets focus on the oil and gas industry and all ports (sea and air) within reach...

If the world gets pissed off because the price of gas goes up another dollar a gallon, so be it.. we're I an Israeli, my position would be pretty simple.... "help us fix this problem.. lets rid the world of the mullahs, the proxy groups, and the terrorist cells... and the Iranian oil problem fixes itself in no time... we'll all be much happier in the long run with the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas gone from this earth, and all of the Iranian mullahs gone with them.. "...

Yes, I say target Iran's economic lifeline oil ports incremently if they continue supplying their proxy terrorists with missiles and drones. Take out the docks and pumps first and see what happens.

 

[Wheels]

I would have to assume both the domestic pressure and desire of the Israeli government to retaliate is overwhelming. One can easily imagine the expectations in this country had a huge wave of guided projectiles been launched against the Homeland. So, I would have to assume Israel will feel forced to act.

While Israel can damage Iranian infrastructure, I remain doubtful that it can do much to hamper the Iranian nuclear program. Even a ballistic missile with a conventional warhead won't rattle the furniture in a facility inside a mountain.

Assuming they do strike, it would be the best opportunity for the US to address the nuclear development problem decisively. I do not expect us to do so. The current NSC is very risk averse, and I suspect that there are members of that team and in State who still believe Iran can be negotiated out of a weapons' program.

Next few days will continue to be interesting.

Would a country like Israel have a "Rods of God" capability within their space program to target Iran's nuclear facilities? Perhaps a single launch and release weapon instead of an orbiting magazine?

 

[Wheels]

https://x.com/USMiniTru/status/1779562732510937166

https://twitter.com/USMiniTru
U.S. Ministry of Truth
https://twitter.com/USMiniTru
@USMiniTru
·
Apr 14

JUST IN: Following unrest in the Middle East, the Austrian Vice Chancellor's motorcade has decided to reroute through Sarajevo.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

https://x.com/USMiniTru/status/1779562732510937166

https://twitter.com/USMiniTru
U.S. Ministry of Truth
https://twitter.com/USMiniTru
@USMiniTru
·
Apr 14

JUST IN: Following unrest in the Middle East, the Austrian Vice Chancellor's motorcade has decided to reroute through Sarajevo.

Deja vu all over again.

 

[wesheltonj]

Meanwhile:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/15/trump-media-shares-plunge-after-company-files-to-issue-additional-djt-stock.html

I feel sorry for the ones who bought it and get conned.
It's on its way to be a penny stock.

Only if Trump loses. If he win so does the stock.

 

[CoElkHunter]

We just got back from Washington, DC last night from our vacation there since last Tuesday. We went for the Cherry Blossom Festival. I've never been there before. The history was quite overwhelming and fantastic. I'm quite the amateur history buff and I was in heaven. We visited most of the museums and monuments including the WW1, WW2, Korea and Vietnam War Memorials. The Capitol tours were booked so on the advice of a docent there we went to our Senator's (Bennett) office inside the Russell building and received visitor passes for both the Senate and House. We saw some of your favorite Senators walking through on the floor to vote and then left. Bernie Sanders (looked like Professor Brown on Back to the Future), Mitt Romney, Bob (I'll be in prison soon) Menendez, Susan Collins, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett (John Hickenlooper was presiding over the circus), and more clowns I didn't recognize. In the House, Chip Roy was arguing over Brandon's failed immigration fiasco and some twit female from New Mexico sidelined his argument over abortion issues. Go figure. We also visited the Arlington National Cemetery. I was surprised that the most decorated soldier in WW2 Audie Murphy has the same nondescript white headstone that most other soldiers did. It was a very humbling place to have had the privilege to visit. George Patton wasn't buried there. I guess he's buried in Luxembourg. I was surprised how "compacted" the states are here. Virginia is on the other side of the Arlington bridge and I guess the Union Army protected the Arlington House and grounds (Confederate General Lee and his wife lived there before the Civil War started) from encroachment by the Confederates in Virginia during the Civil War. The airport we chose for our trip was BWI Baltimore, Maryland. It's not many miles from DC or Virginia. Great vacation. I'll quit rambling now.

 

[Hunt anything]

@CoElkHunter , if you enjoy that history, next time your in that area rent a car and just drive through northern and central Virginia. Lots of civil war and revolutionary war history scattered about around the Shenandoah River valley and Chesapeake bay.

 

[steve white]

Would a country like Israel have a "Rods of God" capability within their space program to target Iran's nuclear facilities? Perhaps a single launch and release weapon instead of an orbiting magazine?

are the "rods of God" the heavy (titanium?) projectiles which would strike the earth with a tremendous penetrating force? I understand they would we about as effective as an asteroid strike of similar mass.

 

[Red Leg]

We just got back from Washington, DC last night from our vacation there since last Tuesday. We went for the Cherry Blossom Festival. I've never been there before. The history was quite overwhelming and fantastic. I'm quite the amateur history buff and I was in heaven. We visited most of the museums and monuments including the WW1, WW2, Korea and Vietnam War Memorials. The Capitol tours were booked so on the advice of a docent there we went to our Senator's (Bennett) office inside the Russell building and received visitor passes for both the Senate and House. We saw some of your favorite Senators walking through on the floor to vote and then left. Bernie Sanders (looked like Professor Brown on Back to the Future), Mitt Romney, Bob (I'll be in prison soon) Menendez, Susan Collins, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett (John Hickenlooper was presiding over the circus), and more clowns I didn't recognize. In the House, Chip Roy was arguing over Brandon's failed immigration fiasco and some twit female from New Mexico sidelined his argument over abortion issues. Go figure. We also visited the Arlington National Cemetery. I was surprised that the most decorated soldier in WW2 Audie Murphy has the same nondescript white headstone that most other soldiers did. It was a very humbling place to have had the privilege to visit. George Patton wasn't buried there. I guess he's buried in Luxembourg. I was surprised how "compacted" the states are here. Virginia is on the other side of the Arlington bridge and I guess the Union Army protected the Arlington House and grounds (Confederate General Lee and his wife lived there before the Civil War started) from encroachment by the Confederates in Virginia during the Civil War. The airport we chose for our trip was BWI Baltimore, Maryland. It's not many miles from DC or Virginia. Great vacation. I'll quit rambling now.

In fact Arlington Cemetery is something of an act of revenge against Lee and the Custis family into which Lee married. In 1864, the Union suffered massive casualties during the Battle of the Wilderness and was running out of cemetery space in the capitol area. Gen. Montgomery Meigs recommended the plantation as the best available land for a new military cemetery. Because of the war, there was an unpaid tax lien on the property of around $1500 in today's currency value. Mary Custis Lee sent an agent to pay the alleged tax, but he was refused access to what became a tax sale of the property to the United States government. Having essentially stolen the property from Lee and the Custis family. The Yankee - I mean federal - government began burials almost immediately.

 

[Red Leg]

Would a country like Israel have a "Rods of God" capability within their space program to target Iran's nuclear facilities? Perhaps a single launch and release weapon instead of an orbiting magazine?

Theoretically, I suppose yes. Though whether they have a launch vehicle capable of lifting sufficient mass to be effective, I do not know.

 

[JGRaider]

A lot of hypotheticals and guessing about capabilities I see. All I know is I'll never bet against Israel, ever. They will be the last one standing.