Doubling the supply takes 4 years, minimum. The problem is beef is like tobacco…if you price it too high for too long without an ample supply, people lose their addiction.
I like a steak as much as any man, but I will never pay $7 for ground beef. It isn’t that good. Pork and chicken at $1 a pound is a better value. The real danger is when beef outprices lobster, crab, and lamb which it has. Luxury food is cheaper than beef!
A collapse will come. The only thing keeping beef special is its timeline to rebuild herd numbers.
In my area, they are so overrun with hay they throw it away moldy in round bales after three years. There is less need for hay than there are animals to feed it.
This week I bought prime brisket at Sam’s Club for $4.88lb. Yet the local market demands $7 for ungraded ground beef and an average of $9 a pound for a side of beef. It’s a terribly overpriced, low quality product. The math doesn’t math at all.
Prime brisket @ 4.88 is indeed a bargain, curious if it was American grown and slaughtered . I bet it wasnt. America cant grow enough beef protein right now.
Every rancher doubling their herd to sustain the beef out put isnt going to happen,very soon, there are too many variables involved. The average small rancher took it in the shorts for so long ,he is more interested in selling that heifer calf, than retaining in a bet , not with standing it takes more land to grow grass to feed said heifer, grass takes water ,a shortage that will continue most likely. FEEDING hay year round isnt feasible to still make it worth while for most smaller ranchers. a side note on water is the AI data centers being built , they take an enormous amount of water to run, "enormous". That water has to come from aquafers or lakes. ask any Texan or Arizonian or Coloradan , ect , how there water situation is, BAD. in the west almost all hay is irrigated to produce. in addition any old cow will drink a minimium of 20 + gallons a day .
A large feed lot in BRawley CA. runs an average of 100,000 cows , x 20 gals. water a day , the Colorado river isnt producing that anymore. a new ag well canrun 250,000.
I f the small rancher running 150 head has an AG loan based on 135 calves a year produced , he cant look at holding back all his heifers. Not to mention calving out heifers is a different game than the old momma cow, need alite weight birth weight bull too.
If you are blessed enough to have your own hay field , better figure on 500,000 for haying equipment.
Im done with this rant, but thats a 30,000 ft view of some strings attached to doubling the herd size.
well one last comment I read somewhere the average ranch owner is around 55 , Dad says " boys comein home for Thanksgiving?, we gotta talk about this ranch, its decision time," sorry dad i got tickets to the game, oh sorry ,dad Im reserved for the Bahamas, "cant make this one dad, company sheduled a .retreat," what ever you think is good. Try to catch you Chrismas if the team doesnt make the finals.
