Politics

375 Ruger Fan

Gold supporter
AH ambassador
Joined
Jun 14, 2015
Messages
5,255
Reaction score
10,547
Location
Shreveport, Louisiana
Media
258
Articles
5
Hunting reports
Africa
7
USA/Canada
9
Australia/NZ
1
Member of
NRA, DSC
Hunted
Namibia, Zimbabwe, South Africa (Eastern Cape & NW), Canada, New Zealand, Alaska, TX, LA, MO, OH, MT, ID, WA, WY
I heard Sen. Cassidy of Louisiana today on the business news suggest a theory on why the Russians would sabotage their own pipeline: supposedly the gas contracts with Europe have a clause requiring a minimum delivery or pay clause. By taking the line out, the Russians can claim force majeure and avoid payment for failing to deliver gas
 
Last edited:

Red Leg

Lifetime bronze benefactor
AH ambassador
Joined
May 19, 2009
Messages
8,883
Reaction score
33,672
Location
Texas Hill Country
Media
351
Articles
6
Hunting reports
Africa
3
USA/Canada
5
Mex/S.Amer
2
Europe
5
Member of
SCI DSC life memberships / NRA Patron Life
Hunted
Mexico, Namibia, RSA, Zambia, Germany, Austria, Argentina, Canada, Mozambique, Spain, US (15 states)
ISW's assessment of Putin's options is particularly timely in light of the annexation gambit.

 

PARA45

AH legend
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
4,314
Reaction score
14,165
Media
87
Articles
4
Hunting reports
Africa
4
USA/Canada
3
Member of
NRA LIFE MEMBER
Hunted
South Africa (Limpopo, Eastern Cape & Kalahari), Nicaragua, FL, CA, SD, GA, SC, CO
1664575995734.jpeg
 

Wheels

AH ambassador
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
8,547
Reaction score
27,495
Location
Oklahoma
Media
118
Articles
2
Hunting reports
Africa
5
Hunted
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
One of the greatest minds of the modern age. Can you imagine what their pub discussions must have been like!?
I probably would not have been able to comprehend many of their conversations, but it would have been fun to listen.

A few years back, we gave the kids a choice of pubs while in Oxford. They chose The Bear which was over 700 years old. Need to slip back some time to The Eagle and Child just for the nostalgia.

1664574484963.png


1664575884287.png

1664575182958.png
 

wesheltonj

AH legend
Joined
Feb 11, 2015
Messages
3,159
Reaction score
4,042
Location
South Texas
Media
19
Articles
7
Hunting reports
Africa
2
Member of
Benefactor-Life NRA, Life SCI, Life DSC
Hunted
USA, RSA
OK, so here's some silly thought that I had this morning in the shower. I used to work fracking in the Permian, so I understand a bit of what's required. Note, this is not from a "Market" perspective. This is experience (I was responsible for sourcing water for fracking) based completely on what it takes to add a well.

Suppose I assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the executive branch has done a complete 180 on their stated policies and has decided to add to US production in order to make money. That in itself would require a huge leap of faith, and assumption of facts not in evidence, but let's go with it.

One fact in evidence is this: The US has not built new pipelines to transfer gas from the fields to LNG Terminals to load for shipping. Nor have they expanded the terminals they do have, which are running near capacity. Also, LNG and propane are currently running at high cost right now, so "easing" European supply carries with it a similar reduction of US supply... unless you drill additional wells.

So, to take advantage of this "opportunity", you decide to drill an additional well. Consider this:

I'm going to pretend two hours have gone by, and it's now 1 October. That makes the maths easy.

1 October is "spud day" for a new well. Actually, it's not. To drill this well, I need about 10,000 barrels (a barrel is 42 gallons... Don't blame me for the lack of SI units, blame Mr. Rockefeller). Considering a "good" water well in the Permian is about 2500 bbl a day, and an average well is about 1500 a day, we can't spud on 1 October, because no one knew this was coming. Wait, there's an important point: I need to construct the pad, the drilling pit, and a frack pond. If you're really good at managing water, you can reduce the cost/time to build a frack pond by using one nearby. Your transfer costs go way up, but it's still cheaper than the $750,000 or so to build the pond... a pond that needs to be filled at a rate of 2500 bbl/day.

So you make the decision to drill on 1 October, assuming a lease is available, and you have all the appropriate permits in hand. Spud day is now 1 November. On Spud day, you have a viable pad, a viable drilling pond, and the rig in place. What you don't have is a full frack pond. To frack a well, you need about 10,000 barrels per stage. You want to be sure you have that in the pond, because you don't want to stop in the middle of a job. You started filling that pond on 1 October, by 1 November, you've only put in about 75,000 bbl. A "standard" (actually short) job is going to require about 15 stages... so either find more water (non-trivial, in the Permian) or wait. Let's suppose, just to speed things along, you've drilled additional water wells. Assuming you've found good water, and assuming they are also average (or you were able to tap into an existing well), we've put away enough water to spud on 1 Nov. Just to keep things easy.

So you spend about a week, maybe 10 days drilling the well. Go with a week. You're drilling over 5,000 feet into the earth, a good portion of that horizontally. It's now 7 November. You planned ahead, there are no issues, and the Completion Team gets there on 8 November. They have a full Frack Pond, all the appropriate equipment, and are ready to go. The job starts. They are really good at their job. They are only doing 15 stages, and they can complete about five stages a day. The Water Guy did his job, and water is available. The special proprietary mix of sand and other chemicals are there. The well is completed in three days. It's now 11 November. Are we producing yet?

Well, we are producing... some gas, some oil, and an awful lot of that frack mix we sent down there. That frack mix is going to be coming out for the next 25 - 30 days, before you are making oil and gas that can be sold. In the mean time, that mix is all being transported to a disposal well. Your original "Go" date was 1 October, your Spud date was 1 November, and your Put On Line (POL) date is now about 15 December.

But now you need to compress that gas (there are some pipelines, but they don't go all the way to Galveston or Houston), load it in rail cars, and ship it. Add a few days there. It's now almost Christmas, and the gas you first hoped to get out of the ground on 1 October is now getting loaded on to a ship. And that ship needs 20 to 30 days to cross the Atlantic, to make it to Europe. It's now mid-to late January. Assuming there were no "issues" along the way.

I see nothing in the industry press that indicates a sudden increase of drilling rigs in the Permian. Keystone is a bad dream. There are no pipelines crossing from Pennsylvania into other east coast ports.

If there were a nefarious plot for the US to bail out Europe and increase their own profits over this winter, NS pipe sabotage should have happened at least 3 months ago, if not more. On the other hand, poor planning on Hunter's part I can believe.

I have no idea about the Permian, but have some knowledge about the Eagle Ford. There are already drilled water wells all over and water ponds everywhere. Pad site are everywhere, and most pad sites can still take more wells. The operators run water pipe everywhere, even where you tell them not to run it. There are gas lines all over at least where EOG has wells. It’s sour gas , and the stripping plant in Tilden runs three tracks, from there the gas can go anywhere. Very short distance to Corpus Christi and a port. It would not take much to ramp up. Other than a drilling permit from
The rail road commission and finding a move a drilling rig.
 
Last edited:

Red Leg

Lifetime bronze benefactor
AH ambassador
Joined
May 19, 2009
Messages
8,883
Reaction score
33,672
Location
Texas Hill Country
Media
351
Articles
6
Hunting reports
Africa
3
USA/Canada
5
Mex/S.Amer
2
Europe
5
Member of
SCI DSC life memberships / NRA Patron Life
Hunted
Mexico, Namibia, RSA, Zambia, Germany, Austria, Argentina, Canada, Mozambique, Spain, US (15 states)
These guys are so good at this. :E Lol: :E Lol:

 

Wheels

AH ambassador
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
8,547
Reaction score
27,495
Location
Oklahoma
Media
118
Articles
2
Hunting reports
Africa
5
Hunted
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
1664581725011.png
 

Red Leg

Lifetime bronze benefactor
AH ambassador
Joined
May 19, 2009
Messages
8,883
Reaction score
33,672
Location
Texas Hill Country
Media
351
Articles
6
Hunting reports
Africa
3
USA/Canada
5
Mex/S.Amer
2
Europe
5
Member of
SCI DSC life memberships / NRA Patron Life
Hunted
Mexico, Namibia, RSA, Zambia, Germany, Austria, Argentina, Canada, Mozambique, Spain, US (15 states)

WAB

AH ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2015
Messages
5,270
Reaction score
15,192
Location
Alabama
Media
119
Hunting reports
Africa
5
USA/Canada
2
Member of
DSC, NRA, SCI
Hunted
Zambia, Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Scotland, England, Canada, Alaska, Ireland

My old mentor Jack Keane was on with Bret Bair. One of the most thoughtful political military minds in a couple of generations. Wish Tucker would have him on, but he doesn't fit the narrative.

I caught that, it was excellent.
 

Ray B

AH legend
Joined
Aug 19, 2016
Messages
3,981
Reaction score
6,369
Location
WA St, USA
Media
81
Hunting reports
USA/Canada
1
Wish Tucker would have him on, but he doesn't fit the narrative.
I like Tucker but I do tire of his ax grinding against some of the persons that he takes issue with. I recall the prescription drug campaign that he had. Increased scrutiny of prescription pain meds happened to coincide with increased deaths from people obtaining pain meds outside the prescription process. Does Tucker mention this? no, just as he continues to wage a campaign against the Ukraine involvement, does he ever present any alternative views? No, which it seems he should, considering his sign-off baloney.
 

Wheels

AH ambassador
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
8,547
Reaction score
27,495
Location
Oklahoma
Media
118
Articles
2
Hunting reports
Africa
5
Hunted
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
1664592936176.png
 

VertigoBE

Silver supporter
AH legend
Joined
Jan 17, 2021
Messages
2,230
Reaction score
4,866
Location
Brussels
Media
43
Hunting reports
Africa
1
Europe
3
Hunted
Belgium, Scotland, Slovenia, South Africa
I heard Sen. Cassidy of Louisiana today on the business news suggest a theory on why the Russians would sabotage their own pipeline: supposedly the gas contracts with Europe have a clause requiring a minimum delivery or pay clause. By taking the line out, the Russians can claim force majeure and avoid payment for failing to deliver gas

This is completely true.
 

SaintPanzer

AH veteran
Joined
Aug 18, 2021
Messages
188
Reaction score
470
Location
Somewhere west of Laramie
Media
1
Member of
Dallas Safari Club; NRA Life Member; Mannlicher Collectors Association
Hunted
USA, Germany, Poland
I have no idea about the Permian, but have some knowledge about the Eagle Ford. There are already drilled water wells all over and water ponds everywhere. Pad site are everywhere, and most pad sites can still take more wells. The operators run water pipe everywhere, even where you tell them not to run it. There are gas lines all over at least where EOG has wells. It’s sour gas , and the stripping plant in Tilden runs three tracks, from there the gas can go anywhere. Very short distance to Corpus Christi and a port. It would not take much to ramp up. Other than a drilling permit from
The rail road commission and finding a move a drilling rig.
You could have stopped after "Permian".

When I was in the Permian, many people came from Eagle Ford and said "What's so hard about this?". Then they saw.

And that's just the water challenge.

How long to get a permit and move a rig? And once that's done, do they drill faster in the Eagle Ford? Does it take less time to complete a well? Is there no need to recover the frack fluid in the Eagle Ford? Do your grits boil faster than other people's grits?

 
Last edited:

Wheels

AH ambassador
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
8,547
Reaction score
27,495
Location
Oklahoma
Media
118
Articles
2
Hunting reports
Africa
5
Hunted
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
1664641424301.png
 

NE 7x57

AH veteran
Joined
Apr 9, 2021
Messages
164
Reaction score
703
Location
Middle USA

My old mentor Jack Keane was on with Bret Bair. One of the most thoughtful political military minds in a couple of generations. Wish Tucker would have him on, but he doesn't fit the narrative.
I'm sure Tucker would attempt to prove to the world that he had a better grasp of military affairs/strategy than Keane. That's generally what he does.

I gave up watching him long ago, he's a legend in his own mind.
 

Newboomer

AH legend
Joined
Sep 10, 2016
Messages
3,168
Reaction score
7,819
Location
Nevada
Media
13
Member of
NRA, SCI, American Legion, Freemasons
Hunted
RSA, Maine, Montana, Colorado, Texas, Alaska, California.
This is a translation of the meat of Putin's annexation speech. Won't find much about Nazis or Ukraine in it.

And the irony of doing this on the same date that Hitler annexed the Sudetenland in 1938 is almost overwhelming.

Additionally the Ukrainian army just completed the encirclement of around 5 thousand Russian troops in the city of Lyman on the same date - in one of of his annexed states.

Wow! Talk about 100% unadulterated bullshit propaganda. I almost fell out of my chair laughing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RTG

Forum statistics

Threads
45,890
Messages
930,511
Members
79,742
Latest member
smtepoxyadhesive
 

 

 

Latest posts

Latest profile posts

Nevada Mike wrote on qmrp2567's profile.
375 H&H brass...

I'd like to have them. $125 for the 100 cases, don't want the smashed ones.

I am in Sonoita, AZ

Mike
We cannot wait to share in some amazing adventures with everyone in 2023 again! Please don't hesitate to message us for a quote, customized safari or even just a chat! #HuntBaylySippel
BLJC30 wrote on Tgood1's profile.
I seen a post saying that you do taxidermy in WV. Where are you located in WV and do you have a price list?
I'm going on my first safari in June.
SteveSac wrote on mdwest's profile.
Hey There,

Im looking to book my first African Safari for 2024 for my 40th birthday. I've never hunted Africa before, but was going to head to SA with my wife for a week then see her off and then stay and hunt.

Saw your safari come up as a recommendation and wondering if you had any time to chat.
Thanks!
Steve
ofbiro wrote on Theleatherman's profile.
Hi Theleatherman, I attach two price lists, one in English, one in Italian, because several words of the language used by the agent are very difficult to understand. If you get in touch with Laszlo Keresztes (owner/manager) tell him that you got the name from Paolo Sinha, italian hunter.
Suerte!
 
Top