CUBA: Repercussions Following The Death Of Former President Fidel Castro

[Global Rescue]

Last Updated: 29 November 2016

Overview

Early on 26 November, the Cuban government officially announced the death of former president Fidel Castro — a controversial Cuban politician and revolutionary who served as president from 1976 to 2008. Heightened security measures and possible travel disruptions should be anticipated following Castro’s death, which occurred late on 25 November. A nine-day nationwide period of mourning will be held from 26 November until 12:00 on 4 December. The government has cancelled all public events, including baseball games, and suspended the sale of alcohol for the duration of the nine-day mourning period. Thus far, no major instances of unrest, violence, or instability have been reported in connection with Castro’s death and the overall security environment in the country remains unchanged.

As of 12:00 local time on 29 November, flights to and from Havana’s José Martí International Airport (HAV) have continued to operate normally. However, travelers using some commercial services such as flights, public transportation, and local businesses may encounter disruptions during the nine-day period of mourning due to workforce shortages.

According to state media, mourners in Havana will pay their respects at the José Martí Memorial near Plaza de la Revolución (Revolution Plaza) on 28-29 November from 09:00 to 22:00 local time. A large-scale commemorative rally is scheduled to take place in Plaza de la Revolución on 29 November beginning at 19:00. On 3 December, a mass rally will be held in Antonio Maceo Plaza in the eastern city of Santiago de Cuba at 19:00. Castro’s private funeral will then take place at Santa Ifigenia Cemetery in Santiago de Cuba on 4 December at 07:00.

Assessment

Heightened security measures can be expected at all large-scale commemorative events in the coming days. However, the risk of political instability or social unrest following the announcement of Castro’s death is low. Political power was successfully transferred from Fidel Castro to his brother Raúl Castro in early 2008, when Raúl assumed the presidency. While there is a small political opposition movement present in the country, the likelihood of significant political instability occurring immediately following Castro’s death is low. Notably, the Ladies in White, one of Cuba’s most prominent dissident groups, called off its weekly protest on 27 November for the first time in 13 years to avoid escalating tensions with those mourning Castro’s death.

As such, the broad security environment in Cuba is unlikely to change significantly following Castro’s death. However, in the near-term, commemorative events related to Castro’s death could have an impact on travel due to large crowds and heightened security measures. An influx of people from outside Havana is expected to visit the capital, as well as the city of Santiago de Cuba, to attend ceremonies during the mourning period and traffic disruptions may occur.

In general, freedom of association is severely limited in Cuba and, as such, demonstrations are infrequent. Demonstrations that are approved by the government are held amidst a heavy security presence and are typically peaceful. Any protests or large public gatherings that occur without permission from the government tend to be quickly dispersed, usually violently, and participants arrested.

Advice

Monitor local media, or get information from tour operators or hotels about possible road closures or new information from the government.

Refrain from any behavior that may be interpreted as festive, disrespectful or disorderly.

Anticipate service closures, travel disruptions, and road closures.

Follow all instructions of local authorities and monitor local media for more information about the mourning period.

Avoid all demonstrations and commemorative events.

Plan alternate routes to circumvent potential rally locations.

Increased patrols, checkpoints, random searches and travel restrictions should be anticipated; these could result in travel disruptions.

Comply with instructions from the security forces. Do not cross military or police cordons without the express permission of the authorities and treat members of the security forces you encounter with patience and respect.

Carry photographic identification and follow all instructions promptly.

Personnel with scheduled flights are advised to contact the relevant airline to confirm the status of their flights.