Soonest/Safest return to South Africa?

John Camp said:

Philip I am late responding to your comment so this issue may be moot by now. While this is a flu it is not anything like a seasonal flu. It moves faster and is killing a lot more people. No one is immune. None of the data says anything else. Models project different levels of death. I have three models that I maintain with US data, two more for New York, and one for Georgia. People seem fooled by the total number of deaths. They are failing to see the growth of the virus and the death that will follow. My models predict best case scenarios of 670,000, 770,000, and 860,000 deaths respectively. This is only for the first wave. These projections take into account all of the social distancing. What we have seen to this point supports the models projections.

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Your models? For the US? What time line? If by this fall, then I am confident you are off by more than a factor of 10. If by the end of the year we will have several treatment protocols that will take a huge bite out of the mortality rate in the next cool weather spike. By the spring we will have a vaccine.

Red Leg said:

Your models? For the US? What time line? If by this fall, then I am confident you are off by more than a factor of 10. If by the end of the year we will have several treatment protocols that will take a huge bite out of the mortality rate in the next cool weather spike. By the spring we will have a vaccine.

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Well I hope so but it is not looking like they are off right now.

Red Leg said:

Your models? For the US? What time line? If by this fall, then I am confident you are off by more than a factor of 10. If by the end of the year we will have several treatment protocols that will take a huge bite out of the mortality rate in the next cool weather spike. By the spring we will have a vaccine.

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The treatments being developed are the biggest reasons those numbers will hopefully come down. Those numbers are for the first wave. I am not saying anyone should believe me or the models' projections. I am just saying that what we have seen so far is consistent with the models projected growth. Lots we do not know of course but with what we (I) do know this is what I see.

Red Leg said:

Your models? For the US? What time line? If by this fall, then I am confident you are off by more than a factor of 10.

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Are you an epidemiologist or did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night? . Just trying to get a sense of why you are comfortably throwing that assertion out there? Is this just “your feeling” or is there some data to support it?

The discussion of "models" is always a problem. Models are essentially meaningless, because they are nothing more than guesses. One of the reasons I don't get all worked up like some do about climate change, because most of it based on models, opinions and projections, and very little in the way of facts that are relevant. But lets not get side tracked, its just an example.

Per the models of this virus, much of it is way off base in particular the models that show deaths in the US of hundreds of thousands or millions, just utter fear mongering. Even the vaunted Dr Fauci, admits that the numbers they were touting a week ago are looking to be a gross overestimate. Thank goodness for that.

As far as the original question, no one knows, too soon to tell. I am close to pulling the plug on my September trip to RSA based on what I think, and have heard about the amount of time that will be required to get back to any kind of normalcy in the system. I have a hard time visualizing getting on a big bird for a couple of real long flights and being cooped up with a bunch of folks that might in fact still be infected with this virus. Not a good thought for those of us over 65. I just don't know.

scoober78 said:

Are you an epidemiologist or did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night? . Just trying to get a sense of why you are comfortably throwing that assertion out there? Is this just “your feeling” or is there some data to support it?

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I am not an epidemiologist. I apologize for not stating that fact from the start. Typically I do. I have training and experience in data science and machine learning. I know data. I do not generally pay attention to the media but started investigating when I noticed serious mistakes in interpretation. I started running my own statistical models on the 1st of March. I have excluded both the China and Iran data from my dataset because there is an abundant amount of evidence that neither are reliable.

These figures are not gut feelings and are in fact consistent within a range of many other models projecting deaths. Consistently then it is supported by all the reliable data that I am aware of. These estimates are not by any measure extreme so I am unsure why you would pop off with a rude challenge. Everyone that says it is overblown or hyped up is cherry picking anecdotes and conditions or anticipating treatments or cures. Challenge there credentials. No one has to believe me and I do not ask that. As far as the media is concerned, they have yet to learn to interpret they data so they have no idea.

sestoppelman said:

the numbers they were touting a week ago are looking to be a gross overestimate

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Where did you hear this? Do you have a link or remember when he said this?

sestoppelman said:

One of the reasons I don't get all worked up like some do about climate change, because most of it based on models, opinions and projections, and very little in the way of facts that are relevant.

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For me the issue with climate change is that it is a political issue and not a scientific one. This is a problem for those demanding change. I think there is a good chance that what we do effects the climate. The problem however, is that there is no scientific evidence to support this. All the screaming and protesting and little girls with personality disorders just confuse the issue. If someone will show me evidence that we are causing the problem then I will listen. Until then it is just a bunch politicized scientists and spoiled children stomping their feet.

John Camp said:

Where did you hear this? Do you have a link or remember when he said this?

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It is all over the news. I am sure in your data analysis you realize mortality is a lagging indicator. What is probably more useful is ICU usage. That is running significantly below last weeks modeling, particularly in NY.

Red Leg said:

It is all over the news. I am sure in your data analysis you realize mortality is a lagging indicator. What is probably more useful is ICU usage. That is running significantly below last weeks modeling, particularly in NY.

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Yes I am aware. Are you referring to the projections presented last Sunday of 100-240K dead being lower than the Imperial College model projection of 2.2 million?

John Camp said:

Where did you hear this? Do you have a link or remember when he said this?

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Him and Birx have been saying this for at least 2 days, that the models are way off, due to the unknown at the time factor of SD and staying home. Those wild ass numbers have been pretty much set aside for now.

sestoppelman said:

Him and Birx have been saying this for at least 2 days, that the models are way off, due to the unknown at the time factor of SD and staying home. Those wild ass numbers have been pretty much set aside for now.

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You mean the 2.2 million Imperial College and similar projections have been set aside and instead they are using the current 100-240K? I get that. II thought you were saying the 100-240 were overestimated.

John Camp said:

You mean the 2.2 million Imperial College and similar projections have been set aside and instead they are using the current 100-240K? I get that. II thought you were saying the 100-240 were overestimated.

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Yes those. Several “modelers” were all over the various networks now suggesting they were likely over stated. I say again, work the ICU rate into your numbers. New York has suddenly quit screaming for ventilators and beds, not because of the daily death rate, but because of the ICU rate - a leading indicator.

I also refuse to believe that COVIN 19 is the first virus not to succumb to summer heat. I am sure you had the foresight to include that in your modeling as well.

Red Leg said:

Yes those. Several “modelers” were all over the various networks now suggesting they were likely over stated. I say again, work the ICU rate into your numbers. New York has suddenly quit screaming for ventilators and beds, not because of the daily death rate, but because of the ICU rate - a leading indicator.

I also refuse to believe that COVIN 19 is the first virus not to succumb to summer heat. I am sure you had the foresight to include that in your modeling as well.

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I have hospitalization, ICU, and ventilator demand in the model. I have been assuming that the summer will push the virus down because almost all virus respond to heat in this manner. If we are wrong I guess we will be wrong together. The first wave should be retreating by June anyway.

John Camp said:

I am not an epidemiologist. I apologize for not stating that fact from the start. Typically I do. I have training and experience in data science and machine learning. I know data. As far as the media is concerned, they have yet to learn to interpret they data so they have no idea.

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No worries, it was not intended to come across rudely, but I am married to an epidemiologist and have an advanced economics degree (econometrics and modeling) and get very tired of keyboard cowboys telling us all that there is, or isn’t anything to worry about here. The best people in this field on the planet don’t know the answer, so the odds of finding someone who does on an African Hunting forum are slim to nil.

Again, my comments were not intended to be taken rudely, and I added the smile to try to avoid that confusion, written context being hard to discern...

In any case, sorry if my voir dire didn’t come across as such. I’d be happy to have an educated modeling convo, but if I get one more Facebook post or Twitter “citation”...

John Camp said:

I have hospitalization, ICU, and ventilator demand in the model. I have been assuming that the summer will push the virus down because almost all virus respond to heat in this manner. If we are wrong I guess we will be wrong together. The first wave should be retreating by June anyway.

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Get this worked in today?

An error in the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force became apparent on Tuesday when New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said there are now 90,000 available hospital beds in the state, 77,000 more than the IHME model states are available.

“We have started with a system of about 53,000 beds statewide. We’re up to about 90,000 available beds, so we have more than enough beds available.” Cuomo said in Tuesday’s press conference. (emphasis added).

All I am certain of is that government agencies overstate data - any data on any subject. And I should add I spent a lot of years bouncing at the military end of such analysis. To be found to have underestimated almost any issue is to be found "guilty" by chattering class. Just imagine how much safety margin was pumped into estimates by the time they reached the Presidential task force. Governors also can't be found wanting - to date the Javits Center remains empty and the governor of New York has quit screaming for federal management of all ventilators. None of this says we aren't in the middle of a pandemic, but I am certain we are still searching for rational balance in our response.

Red Leg said:

Get this worked in today?

An error in the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force became apparent on Tuesday when New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said there are now 90,000 available hospital beds in the state, 77,000 more than the IHME model states are available.

“We have started with a system of about 53,000 beds statewide. We’re up to about 90,000 available beds, so we have more than enough beds available.” Cuomo said in Tuesday’s press conference. (emphasis added).

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This, from an epidemiology standpoint is a huge problem, as I’m sure you are aware. We haven’t had a contagion model in decades that required a significant retooling or reacquisition of a specific resource (in this case, ventilators) and while one unit in one hospital may have a good handle on its supply of that item today, we do not have good aggregated data, so things like “ready ICU beds” etc...are based on quite a lot of garbage data. Garbage in, garbage out.

John Camp said:

You mean the 2.2 million Imperial College and similar projections have been set aside and instead they are using the current 100-240K? I get that. II thought you were saying the 100-240 were overestimated.

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They are saying the lower numbers were likely off as well. The likelihood is that the death rate will be much lower than those numbers too. One wonders if they didn't throw those scary numbers out purposely so as to make the masses more inclined to follow stay home and SD orders and thus keep the death rate from spiraling out of control.

sestoppelman said:

They are saying the lower numbers were likely off as well. The likelihood is that the death rate will be much lower than those numbers too. One wonders if they didn't throw those scary numbers out purposely so as to make the masses more inclined to follow stay home and SD orders and thus keep the death rate from spiraling out of control.

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More right then you may think, and frankly, if it saves lives...It turns out, there’s actually a wolf out there.

John Camp said:

Philip I am late responding to your comment so this issue may be moot by now. While this is a flu it is not anything like a seasonal flu. It moves faster and is killing a lot more people. No one is immune. None of the data says anything else. Models project different levels of death. I have three models that I maintain with US data, two more for New York, and one for Georgia. People seem fooled by the total number of deaths. They are failing to see the growth of the virus and the death that will follow. My models predict best case scenarios of 670,000, 770,000, and 860,000 deaths respectively. This is only for the first wave. These projections take into account all of the social distancing. What we have seen to this point supports the models projections.

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Your models are simply not based in reality and are not coming true. Mark my words in the end this will be no worse than H1N1 or even a bad season flu year.
You can't say this is worse than the flu and then on the other hand say that there are millions of asymptomatic people walking around that don't know it! This is what is being thrown around.
Keep in mind they are cooking the books on deaths now and we CAN NO LONGER TRUST ANY GOVERNMENT DATA ON COVID19.