Soonest/Safest return to South Africa?

Tanks · Mar 28, 2020

My flight leaves on July 28th from LAX. If the countries are still shutdown by then I will rebook to 2021. Most likely the South African airways portions of my flight will burn as they don't seem to reschedule 12 months out.

scoober78 · Mar 28, 2020

Philip Glass said:
Italy has been officially declared a Third World Country recently. The population averages 80 and has poor health care...
So what if 70% of the population get this?
Philip

1. No, it hasn’t. No one who counts classifies Italy as the Third world.

2. No, the population averages 45 and some change.

3. In the US? Well, we’d expect about 220,000,000 cases and well over a million deaths.

Please stop the hyperbole.

lwaters · Mar 28, 2020

Dr Ray said:
Into next year I think.
This is really bad and I believe China has another virus surfacing. Hanta!!

Actually that virus surfaced in Kansas a few years back. Than they were warning people to be careful cleaning up out buildings and grain bins. I believe it was in nice shit. It was a deadly virus that few survived. Likely very few caught it.

Tanks · Mar 28, 2020

In regards to seriousness of this I think the truth lies somewhere between being dismissive and doom and gloom.

From where I sit I see the following:
-- It seems to be extremely contagious.
-- Fatality rate seems to be very high (comparatively speaking) in the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues.

Of course, unlike the flu we do not have a vaccine and because it is a novel virus our bodies do not have built in immunity to this.

So, comparing it to the flu and being dismissive or calling it a media created emergency is disingenuous at best.

Dee S · Mar 28, 2020

I just read this.....is it true?

https://www.sfgate.com/travel/amp/Airlines-canceled-refunds-15156320.php

Tanks · Mar 28, 2020

Not sure, but when I called my airline they did not want to deal with rescheduling and said I was eligible for a refund and refunded me and said I could rebook through the web site later.

mikecatt13 · Mar 28, 2020

Bill DeHaan said:
There has always been and always will be another virus surfacing. And each year a lot of folks die from the complication of those seasonal viral infections. Fatalities in the US this year from the regular influenza is reported to be approaching 20k. I’m not sure where we will end up for fatalities from the COVID-19. (1704 in the US and 28,376 for world as of this AM), but there will be another for sure.

So the solution or objective now for future seasons cannot be to stop this virus, or stop that virus with a vaccine. I believe It will come down to a multinational capability to do real time testing for infection and having procedures in place to mitigate the impacts of any seasonal virus without bringing global economies to an indefinite halt.

Seems we are close to having real time testing. This is only part of why I believe there will be travel to RSA and safaris in 2020. The other reason is because our economies will not tolerate a 6 month shut down. And transportation is critical to all economies.

Stay informed and be as flexible as you can.

Well said, as grim as it is I firmly believe if the world economy is basically shut down for 4-6 months we are all screwed. The entire world will turn into a 3rd world country and it will essentially be an apocalyptic event requiring rebuilding from scratch and the violent deaths will outweigh the virus ones exponentially.

Before you call me crazy, seriously consider the effect of THE ENTIRE WORLD making no money for 6 months. It wont be long before even the "essential" things get shut down. The gravity of that is hard to fathom. We absolutely should try this distancing thing but at a certain point, if it doesnt work to stomp it out, we have no choice but to get back to almost normal life and take our chances. As cold as it is, its absolutely no different than hunting as conservation. One high risk person might die to save 100, 1000, 10000 who would otherwise die of suicide, violence, starvation if things get bad enough, etc.

At the end of the day, humans cant avoid mother natures power forever. Let's just hope this mostly blows over in a few weeks and at least an end is in sight

Dee S · Mar 28, 2020

mikecatt13 said:
Well said, as grim as it is I firmly believe if the world economy is basically shut down for 4-6 months we are all screwed. The entire world will turn into a 3rd world country and it will essentially be an apocalyptic event requiring rebuilding from scratch and the violent deaths will outweigh the virus ones exponentially.

Before you call me crazy, seriously consider the effect of THE ENTIRE WORLD making no money for 6 months. It wont be long before even the "essential" things get shut down. The gravity of that is hard to fathom. We absolutely should try this distancing thing but at a certain point, if it doesnt work to stomp it out, we have no choice but to get back to almost normal life and take our chances. As cold as it is, its absolutely no different than hunting as conservation. One high risk person might die to save 100, 1000, 10000 who would otherwise die of suicide, violence, starvation if things get bad enough, etc.

At the end of the day, humans cant avoid mother natures power forever. Let's just hope this mostly blows over in a few weeks and at least an end is in sight

Philip Glass · Mar 28, 2020

scoober78 said:
1. No, it hasn’t. No one who counts classifies Italy as the Third world.

2. No, the population averages 45 and some change.

3. In the US? Well, we’d expect about 220,000,000 cases and well over a million deaths.

Please stop the hyperbole.

Why did Italy have a harder time with the virus than Germany?

Philip Glass · Mar 28, 2020

Tanks said:
In regards to seriousness of this I think the truth lies somewhere between being dismissive and doom and gloom.

From where I sit I see the following:
-- It seems to be extremely contagious.
-- Fatality rate seems to be very high (comparatively speaking) in the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues.

Of course, unlike the flu we do not have a vaccine and because it is a novel virus our bodies do not have built in immunity to this.

So, comparing it to the flu and being dismissive or calling it a media created emergency is disingenuous at best.

Wait a year and then reiterate what you just said. We will see the true death rate down as low or lower than flu. Why? Because as has been often stated many are walking around with it and don’t know it.
Contagious? Yes. Overblown? Yes.

IdaRam · Mar 28, 2020

One thing we have yet to see is what this virus does in southern Africa. I am praying, daily, but cringing inside. Hoping for the best, but...
When you combine the factors that exist such as medical infrastructure, population, living conditions, social traditions, prevalence of HIV and other diseases which compromise peoples immune systems, etc. Well, it could be really bad.
And I hope you are more right than not Philip. I think you may be regarding the situation here in the U.S.
One thing is for sure, we’re gonna find out.

scoober78 · Mar 29, 2020

Philip Glass said:
Why did Italy have a harder time with the virus than Germany?

Nobody is sure. PHDs don’t know. Epidemiologists don’t know. There are theories, of course. Many suggest that early action by the German government, cultural differences (rule bound, non-communal living etc...could be factors), but the reality is that it is complicated. There are co-morbidities that we likely don’t understand, details of health care that we likely haven’t yet grasped that matter...on and on.

The reality however, is that whatever the true picture will be, its details will be complicated. These are not simple equations and people spend lifetimes studying them. To argue that you know what the fatality rate will be, or that you can say with any authority at all that it “is overblown” is asinine. Peddling simplicity in the face of a complex problem is how people get hurt. Please stop.

Tanks · Mar 29, 2020

Philip Glass said:
Why did Italy have a harder time with the virus than Germany?

My guess is that Italy had more initial infections due to the carnival, and also Italy is like a poor cousin compared to Germany economically hence lacked in facilities and resources. If you look at the number of confirmed cases vs mortalities Germany is less than 1% whereas Italy is over 10%. That leads me to believe Italy either can't take care of their sick or the number of cases are way higher and not all infected have been tested and confirmed.

Data is still fuzzy.

rod clugston · Apr 1, 2020

L

Bill DeHaan said:
mdwest and all,
The media and some politicians are using fear to boost viewership and garner influence. however, that stat is not correct. Multiple countries are seeing the majority of their citizens not contracting the disease. (So Korea - 75% have tested negative) Further, the odds of contracting the virus without close contact with a carrier is between 1-2%. Lastly, the mortality is being grossly misrepresented. In Italy, over 90% of the fatalities were to patients who had at least two serious pre-existing health conditions.

I agree this is being way over hyped by media and politicians being politicians. I am taking it seriously and being careful to not be the guy spreading it around my area. I believe we will see a peak in April and once we get on the downhill side of new cases going down we will be going back to business as usual gradually. I think going would be possibility July August this year. I just don’t know how Africa will do with it but I think we will be back in business in the summer.Nobody knows really ,especially me,but I am optimistic we peak out late April and we will still have new cases but the number of new cases will start to go down after that. If this happens the economy should come back roaring back. If it extends through summer and even longer we will have bigger problems than trying to figure out our next safari. Stay healthy and I hope I am right!

mikecatt13 · Apr 1, 2020

rod clugston said:
L

I agree this is being way over hyped by media and politicians being politicians. I am taking it seriously and being careful to not be the guy spreading it around my area. I believe we will see a peak in April and once we get on the downhill side of new cases going down we will be going back to business as usual gradually. I think going would be possibility July August this year. I just don’t know how Africa will do with it but I think we will be back in business in the summer.Nobody knows really ,especially me,but I am optimistic we peak out late April and we will still have new cases but the number of new cases will start to go down after that. If this happens the economy should come back roaring back. If it extends through summer and even longer we will have bigger problems than trying to figure out our next safari. Stay healthy and I hope I am right!

I completely agree and hope you are right too! I'm ready to start making money again and get back to planning my August safari...even if I get my cat the first 5 minutes of hunting it will be a hard earned leopard stress wise with all this BS!

JKO HUNTING SAFARIS · Apr 2, 2020

We are hoping and praying that this virus will stay out of our townships and poor settlements but I as we are on the 7th day of our lockdown it seems to me that the local people still think it is a joke which can be catastrophic for our country and Africa. I truly hope that I am wrong and that this whole deal blow over sooner than later as it has really had a devastating impact on our industry.

I would like to personally thank all the hunters booked with me at JKO or not that is going out of their way not to cancel their safaris but rather rescheduling their safaris, you are already doing a lot more for our hunting industry than what you realize.

I personally feel that this is also blown way out of proportion, even though it is real and people are dying I think it is the media and politics that is blowing it up way more than anything else. We can go to the grocery store to buy food and essentials but not allowed to buy a light bulb or sanding paper in the same store because it is not seen as a essential. Personally I feel that is a bunch of BS!

Keep safe my friends and we all hope to welcome you back to our beautiful country sooner than later!

All my best,

Jacques

JGRaider · Apr 2, 2020

Good post JKO. I hope for the best for all the good outfitters in Africa, and across the globe for that matter. Biggest problem I see is if the majority of Africans take this COVID outbreak with the same level of seriousness as they have the AIDS epidemic, it won't go well for the continent of Africa.

JKO HUNTING SAFARIS · Apr 2, 2020

JGRaider said:
Good post JKO. I hope for the best for all the good outfitters in Africa, and across the globe for that matter. Biggest problem I see is if the majority of Africans take this COVID outbreak with the same level of seriousness as they have the AIDS epidemic, it won't go well for the continent of Africa.

Thank you sir and I agree 100% with you, our problem in Africa as a whole is that 80% of the people are uneducated and is still very superstitious so if someone tell them that they cannot get the virus because it comes from a different country they will believe it and not worry about a thing..... We are all praying that the virus can be contained somewhat in Africa.

I also believe that we will never know the real statistics in Africa as a lot of people in rural areas will get sick and probably die without ever being tested unfortunately. They will also not understand why they are dying.... It is Africa and here it is a different world to what most people kow.

Stay positive and stay safe!

All my best,

Jacques

John Camp · Apr 7, 2020

Philip Glass said:
Italy has been officially declared a Third World Country recently. The population averages 80 and has poor health care. When you hear the talking heads using Italy as a comparison to the US you know they are blind or agenda driven.
So what if 70% of the population get this? Most all people have little to NO SYMPTOMS!
EVERYONE NEEDS TO READ CDC NUMBERS FOR FLU. Then compare the the current "crisis" and THINK!
Philip

Italy is not a 3rd world country

John Camp · Apr 7, 2020

Philip Glass said:
Sorry you must educate yourself by comparing this the the common flu. We have lost in the USA 23000 this year to the common flu. End of discussion!
Philip

Philip I am late responding to your comment so this issue may be moot by now. While this is a flu it is not anything like a seasonal flu. It moves faster and is killing a lot more people. No one is immune. None of the data says anything else. Models project different levels of death. I have three models that I maintain with US data, two more for New York, and one for Georgia. People seem fooled by the total number of deaths. They are failing to see the growth of the virus and the death that will follow. My models predict best case scenarios of 670,000, 770,000, and 860,000 deaths respectively. This is only for the first wave. These projections take into account all of the social distancing. What we have seen to this point supports the models projections.

Soonest/Safest return to South Africa?

Tanks

scoober78

lwaters

Tanks

Dee S

Tanks

mikecatt13

Dee S

Philip Glass

Philip Glass

IdaRam

scoober78

Tanks

rod clugston

mikecatt13

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