What stocks are you trading today

mikecatt13 said:

What platform are you guys using to trade?

I've never messed with stocks, been investing in myself with businesses. But it doesnt look like I get to go to vegas anytime soon so thinking maybe I'll allocate some of my "entertainment budget" to play this game a bit

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mikecatt13 said:

What platform are you guys using to trade?

I've never messed with stocks, been investing in myself with businesses. But it doesnt look like I get to go to vegas anytime soon so thinking maybe I'll allocate some of my "entertainment budget" to play this game a bit

Click to expand...

Vic said:

SPXS it will come back. Also, Ford is trading around $5. I’m thinking about buying Delta when it dips below $30

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lwaters said:

Rebalanced in to vanguard total stock market index last Thursday. When and if the s&p 500 drops to a 50% loss I will back up the truck. I'm a buy and hold indexer but in the financial crisis I did this and it worked. Think it will again. "Market timers hall of fame is a very small room ."

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Vic said:

SPXS it will come back. Also, Ford is trading around $5. I’m thinking about buying Delta when it dips below $30

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• Markets, economies and civilization will recover. We have been through worse.

• Provided your cash needs are met, the only sensible action right now is to hold on tight. Thank goodness we manage risk first and our planning process models for bear markets.

• If no one dies today well, then, it’s a good day and we will figure out all the rest.

flat8 said:

I'm reading this thread with great interest. I lead a team of 3 CFP's with clients in 26 states. Aside from over 100 phone calls this past week, here's my most recent letter that went out yesterday for anyone who is curious. Some interesting data points at the end:



Dear Clients, Friends and Associates,

The morning of Tuesday, September 11th, 2001 in New York was perfect. I recall noting to myself how clear and blue the skies were before I stepped on the windowless trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange about an hour before the opening bell. Several hours later when I emerged from the exchange on the corner of Wall and Broad, the sky was black with smoke and the streets were chocked with ash and debris. The world had changed.

We reopened the exchange the following Monday. Over the following weeks, I would leave the trading floor exhausted with the smell of acrid smoke in my nostrils from the still-smoldering pile of rubble just a few blocks away. With the arrival of October, it became clear that there would be no survivors found. That’s when I started attending funerals. Everyone who worked in the Financial District in 2001 attended a lot of funerals. What I learned from that fall of 2001 is this - If nobody died today, it was a good day. As for the rest, well, we’ll figure it out.

The last week has raised many of the same feelings I felt back in 2001. Now with a lot more age and a bit of wisdom, I remain absolutely convinced of a few things.

• Markets, economies and civilization will recover. We have been through worse.

• Provided your cash needs are met, the only sensible action right now is to hold on tight. Thank goodness we manage risk first and our planning process models for bear markets.

• If no one dies today well, then, it’s a good day and we will figure out all the rest.

And now some data points, as I tend to revert to math to make sense of the world.

There really is no way to measure risk under these circumstances, but there are precedents that can help put things in perspective. Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, says that the supply shock coming from the production slowdown in China will likely lead to a big drop in inventories in the 2nd quarter. After that, based on previous episodes of rapidly spreading viruses, inventory replenishment should boost growth to 3.5%-4.0% annual rate in the second half of the year. He notes that neither the “Hong Kong flu” in 1968-1969 nor the “Swine flu” in 2009 resulted in a recession.

A much more negative story unfolded in 1957-1958, however, when the US was hit by the “Asian flu”, which killed almost 70,000 in the US and “didn’t spare younger people as much as the Coronavirus. Real GDP was growing around 3% annually in 1957, but as the flu started to peak in Q4, the economy shrank at a 4.1% annual rate, followed by an annualized 10.0% plunge in the first quarter of 1958, the deepest drop for any quarter in the post-World War II era (from 1947 through 2019). But then, right after the plunge, the economy rebounded at a 7.8% annual rate for the next five quarters. The stock market is pricing in a steep drop in profits, which is certainly possible. A strong recovery, which we expect, will reverse this as it has in the past.”

It is interesting that some of the most negative prognosticators during the recent bull market are now seeing buying opportunities. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO Global Investment & Asset Management, is one of them. Even if the coronavirus pandemic does cause a global recession, his firm does not expect it to be extreme enough in depth or duration to cause permanent damage to shareholders over the long term. “This is not like a major war where all the factories get destroyed,” he said. “It doesn’t strike us as likely to really impact the economy’s ability to function once we get beyond the acute throes of trying to deal with the virus.”

Please understand that I am not downplaying the severity of the recent decline nor the possibility that it could get worse before it gets better. The news is so bad however, I think it is important to consider what could go right. Pent-up demand and inventory restocking are high on my list. Clearly there is no guarantee that the market will recover the recent losses, but I know for certain there is no way to recover them in bonds or cash, both of which now yield 0%. I regret that you and all my clients have been subjected to the fierce volatility of the last few days and weeks but in the final analysis stocks represent ownership in corporate America and as Warren Buffett said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things but it’s not always a smooth ride.”

Which takes me back to the aftermath of September 11th. In the days and weeks that followed that tragedy, many of us living in New York were afraid to ride the subway because of fears of a biological/chemical attack or the often-reported possibility of suicide bombers. Eventually though, New Yorkers were tired of being afraid, and we realized that the subways were the fastest way to get around the city. The subways were soon full again.

This too will pass. I say we channel our inner Winston Churchill and refuse to give in. As for my team, I promise you, we have not yet begun to fight!! We will get through this together. QUOTE]

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flat8 said:

I'm reading this thread with great interest. I lead a team of 3 CFP's with clients in 26 states. Aside from over 100 phone calls this past week, here's my most recent letter that went out yesterday for anyone who is curious. Some interesting data points at the end:



Dear Clients, Friends and Associates,

The morning of Tuesday, September 11th, 2001 in New York was perfect. I recall noting to myself how clear and blue the skies were before I stepped on the windowless trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange about an hour before the opening bell. Several hours later when I emerged from the exchange on the corner of Wall and Broad, the sky was black with smoke and the streets were chocked with ash and debris. The world had changed.

We reopened the exchange the following Monday. Over the following weeks, I would leave the trading floor exhausted with the smell of acrid smoke in my nostrils from the still-smoldering pile of rubble just a few blocks away. With the arrival of October, it became clear that there would be no survivors found. That’s when I started attending funerals. Everyone who worked in the Financial District in 2001 attended a lot of funerals. What I learned from that fall of 2001 is this - If nobody died today, it was a good day. As for the rest, well, we’ll figure it out.

The last week has raised many of the same feelings I felt back in 2001. Now with a lot more age and a bit of wisdom, I remain absolutely convinced of a few things.

• Markets, economies and civilization will recover. We have been through worse.

• Provided your cash needs are met, the only sensible action right now is to hold on tight. Thank goodness we manage risk first and our planning process models for bear markets.

• If no one dies today well, then, it’s a good day and we will figure out all the rest.

And now some data points, as I tend to revert to math to make sense of the world.

There really is no way to measure risk under these circumstances, but there are precedents that can help put things in perspective. Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, says that the supply shock coming from the production slowdown in China will likely lead to a big drop in inventories in the 2nd quarter. After that, based on previous episodes of rapidly spreading viruses, inventory replenishment should boost growth to 3.5%-4.0% annual rate in the second half of the year. He notes that neither the “Hong Kong flu” in 1968-1969 nor the “Swine flu” in 2009 resulted in a recession.

A much more negative story unfolded in 1957-1958, however, when the US was hit by the “Asian flu”, which killed almost 70,000 in the US and “didn’t spare younger people as much as the Coronavirus. Real GDP was growing around 3% annually in 1957, but as the flu started to peak in Q4, the economy shrank at a 4.1% annual rate, followed by an annualized 10.0% plunge in the first quarter of 1958, the deepest drop for any quarter in the post-World War II era (from 1947 through 2019). But then, right after the plunge, the economy rebounded at a 7.8% annual rate for the next five quarters. The stock market is pricing in a steep drop in profits, which is certainly possible. A strong recovery, which we expect, will reverse this as it has in the past.”

It is interesting that some of the most negative prognosticators during the recent bull market are now seeing buying opportunities. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO Global Investment & Asset Management, is one of them. Even if the coronavirus pandemic does cause a global recession, his firm does not expect it to be extreme enough in depth or duration to cause permanent damage to shareholders over the long term. “This is not like a major war where all the factories get destroyed,” he said. “It doesn’t strike us as likely to really impact the economy’s ability to function once we get beyond the acute throes of trying to deal with the virus.”

Please understand that I am not downplaying the severity of the recent decline nor the possibility that it could get worse before it gets better. The news is so bad however, I think it is important to consider what could go right. Pent-up demand and inventory restocking are high on my list. Clearly there is no guarantee that the market will recover the recent losses, but I know for certain there is no way to recover them in bonds or cash, both of which now yield 0%. I regret that you and all my clients have been subjected to the fierce volatility of the last few days and weeks but in the final analysis stocks represent ownership in corporate America and as Warren Buffett said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things but it’s not always a smooth ride.”

Which takes me back to the aftermath of September 11th. In the days and weeks that followed that tragedy, many of us living in New York were afraid to ride the subway because of fears of a biological/chemical attack or the often-reported possibility of suicide bombers. Eventually though, New Yorkers were tired of being afraid, and we realized that the subways were the fastest way to get around the city. The subways were soon full again.

This too will pass. I say we channel our inner Winston Churchill and refuse to give in. As for my team, I promise you, we have not yet begun to fight!! We will get through this together.

Click to expand...

mikecatt13 said:

Is it safe to assume that if someone has the funds available, the near future is a good time to be buying?

I have a lot to learn as I know almost nothing about stocks, and large amounts of research on what to buy of course is needed, but it sure seems like if someone has the spare cash, it seems like the through, or as close to it as you can estimate, presents some opportunities for some good returns (both short and long term I imagine)

On a side note: where in the world do you start in an attempt to learn this stuff?!

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YancyW said:

Just to be clear, playing along with me here is a terrible idea if you are not using the money you don't actually need to count on for retirement. I have a clear and consistent plan that does not involve bouncing in and out of the most volatile market in over a decade. I also hit a very big lick of my Friday with my short buy, so I am playing with house money. Listen to the pro above, not me.

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mikecatt13 said:

Appreciate the honesty and caution. I'm young (30) and have some cash available. Thus far, I've busted my butt and invested in myself (businesses), I have some commercial projects in the works that have funds allocated to them and in a few years I intend to let my financial advisor manage a decent sum of money towards my retirement (he has done well for my father over many years and ups and downs) with fairly low risk.

That being said, I have some funds I'd be willing to essentially gamble with and hope to take advantage of market conditions, and understand that gambling is essentially what it would be. Stocks have always intrigued me, I like numbers and finance, seems like a good excuse to start learning. I doubt I will gain enough knowledge fast enough to profit consistently off short term trades, but it seems like there may be good opportunity at getting in on some solid companies at lower prices that could show good returns in a year or two or whatever.

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