Politics

What do all you good folk make of this?
After almost a year of war, we have frozen front lines in the east. No changes. Nothing to celebrate

This was after allied war aid infusion in total value much surpassed last russian annual military budget. And that was before we decided to send tanks.

After almost a year of war and press reports of Ukraina winning and Russia collapsing, we have frozen solid front lines. 20% of country occupied (close to Russian territiorial military objectives)
How come? How possibly can that be?

We are now sending tanks to Ukraina. 31 M1, and 14 Leo. total 45.
To me it raises few questions.
What happened to Ukrainian tanks, in last year, so we need to send them our tanks? (I was under impression from press they were winning)

Is 45 advanced tanks enough to make changes on this extremely long front lines, 2.500 km of front?

To say at least, I have doubts.
 
After almost a year of war, we have frozen front lines in the east. No changes. Nothing to celebrate

This was after allied war aid infusion in total value much surpassed last russian annual military budget. And that was before we decided to send tanks.

After almost a year of war and press reports of Ukraina winning and Russia collapsing, we have frozen solid front lines. 20% of country occupied (close to Russian territiorial military objectives)
How come? How possibly can that be?

We are now sending tanks to Ukraina. 31 M1, and 14 Leo. total 45.
To me it raises few questions.
What happened to Ukrainian tanks, in last year, so we need to send them our tanks? (I was under impression from press they were winning)

Is 45 advanced tanks enough to make changes on this extremely long front lines, 2.500 km of front?

To say at least, I have doubts.
Valid points. I don't know who is in charge of the grand strategy, but this trickle feeding Ukraine only makes sense if:
1. It is conceded that in a peace agreement Russia will end up with the Donbas more or less upon the frozen lines, and Crimea.
2. Agreed the small number of 41 tanks is inconsequential. Even the 300 odd are said to be not enough to push Russia out, especially having allowed lag time for the frozen line fortifications to be hardened.
3. The tanks, and the aircraft threat therefore look more like a statement by Ukraine's backers to Russia of 'so far and no further'.
4. If the intention was really just to deplete Russia at Ukraine's expense. Patriots late in the day, and too few. Tanks late in the day and too few. Russia in the meantime gets to fight the war it likes, and to empty it's jails and get rid of it's criminals.

I am no military genius, but if I am wrong and the West really intended for Russia to be kicked out of Ukraine then this pussy footing looks like the greatest incompetence in history. War is brutal, war is dangerous, you fight to win,
 
See the Russians and Chinese up to their usual shit...possibly mainly the Russians.....

BBC News - Myanmar: Air strikes have become a deadly new tactic in the civil war
 
Thanks for that in depth background assessment @Red Leg and for your comments @Kevin Peacocke

I too believe that support needs to stepped up

Putin is a liar who’s presence on the international stage is a threat to us all

Lying long before 2014, he also lied to the international community about his intentions running up to Crimea

Some senior politicians have observed that not only did he lie to them, but he revelled in the fact that they knew he was lying and that they knew that he knew that they knew

A bit convoluted but in essence he enjoyed the power of being able to act as a bandit without consequences

We in the west are trying our utmost to avoid escalation and confrontation

However I believe it is coming and you don’t avoid it by running away from it

Actions we take this Spring define the pieces on the chessboard in the coming 18 months or so

Just my simplistic take on a complex problem

Bit of a ramble I know, but I’ve not had my breakfast coffee yet
 
Last edited:
After almost a year of war, we have frozen front lines in the east. No changes. Nothing to celebrate

This was after allied war aid infusion in total value much surpassed last russian annual military budget. And that was before we decided to send tanks.

After almost a year of war and press reports of Ukraina winning and Russia collapsing, we have frozen solid front lines. 20% of country occupied (close to Russian territiorial military objectives)
How come? How possibly can that be?

We are now sending tanks to Ukraina. 31 M1, and 14 Leo. total 45.
To me it raises few questions.
What happened to Ukrainian tanks, in last year, so we need to send them our tanks? (I was under impression from press they were winning)

Is 45 advanced tanks enough to make changes on this extremely long front lines, 2.500 km of front?

To say at least, I have doubts.
Here in West-Europe, no one seriously believes in the victory of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine will be supported until the Russians are fed up and finally go to the negotiating table. We must also restrain ourselves from war rhetoric and if the matter escalates, then good night.
Russia is not Serbia and has the most nuclear weapons in the world.
Putin get out of Crimea and the Donbass only through a third world war.
There has guaranteed nobody desire on it here.
Selensky should finally recognize this reality.
It will take another one, or two years, then both parties should be ready.

Crazy world.
 
Last edited:
After almost a year of war, we have frozen front lines in the east. No changes. Nothing to celebrate

This was after allied war aid infusion in total value much surpassed last russian annual military budget. And that was before we decided to send tanks.

After almost a year of war and press reports of Ukraina winning and Russia collapsing, we have frozen solid front lines. 20% of country occupied (close to Russian territiorial military objectives)
How come? How possibly can that be?

We are now sending tanks to Ukraina. 31 M1, and 14 Leo. total 45.
To me it raises few questions.
What happened to Ukrainian tanks, in last year, so we need to send them our tanks? (I was under impression from press they were winning)

Is 45 advanced tanks enough to make changes on this extremely long front lines, 2.500 km of front?

To say at least, I have doubts.

Valid points. I don't know who is in charge of the grand strategy, but this trickle feeding Ukraine only makes sense if:
1. It is conceded that in a peace agreement Russia will end up with the Donbas more or less upon the frozen lines, and Crimea.
2. Agreed the small number of 41 tanks is inconsequential. Even the 300 odd are said to be not enough to push Russia out, especially having allowed lag time for the frozen line fortifications to be hardened.
3. The tanks, and the aircraft threat therefore look more like a statement by Ukraine's backers to Russia of 'so far and no further'.
4. If the intention was really just to deplete Russia at Ukraine's expense. Patriots late in the day, and too few. Tanks late in the day and too few. Russia in the meantime gets to fight the war it likes, and to empty it's jails and get rid of it's criminals.

I am no military genius, but if I am wrong and the West really intended for Russia to be kicked out of Ukraine then this pussy footing looks like the greatest incompetence in history. War is brutal, war is dangerous, you fight to win,
I have found this YouTube channel and I have been watching it for at least a month. It has an Ukraine bias but it tells both the Ukrainian successes and failures. This was released last night. It may provide some information for your questions.
 
After almost a year of war, we have frozen front lines in the east. No changes. Nothing to celebrate

This was after allied war aid infusion in total value much surpassed last russian annual military budget. And that was before we decided to send tanks.

After almost a year of war and press reports of Ukraina winning and Russia collapsing, we have frozen solid front lines. 20% of country occupied (close to Russian territiorial military objectives)
How come? How possibly can that be?

We are now sending tanks to Ukraina. 31 M1, and 14 Leo. total 45.
To me it raises few questions.
What happened to Ukrainian tanks, in last year, so we need to send them our tanks? (I was under impression from press they were winning)

Is 45 advanced tanks enough to make changes on this extremely long front lines, 2.500 km of front?

To say at least, I have doubts.
I shall try not to respond to your questions in the vein in which they were asked.

Equating NATO assistance value to one year of Russian defense spending is a false comparison. It sounds meaningful which is why critics of the war use it, but the economic reality is that Russia (and the latter years of the Soviet Union) spent decades creating the army that invaded Ukraine a year ago. The primary tank used by Russia is the T72 - I assume you understand why it has that model designation. Yes, it has been modernized, but original investments in design and assembly lines were over decades. The same is true of the Russian Air Force. The more pertinent question might be how, after decades of investment of hundreds of billions of dollars, the Ukrainians still defeated the Russian Army in its effort to seize control of the country, forced their retreat from Kyiv, Karkhiv, and Kherson and have fought them to a standstill in the Donbas. That ongoing defensive stand is after Russia consolidated its surviving striking strength there in an attempt to seize and hold all of that region.

It is equally nonsensical to say Putin has achieved his territorial objectives. The VDV and most of a tank army were essentially destroyed in the attempt to take Kyiv and Kharkiv. If anyone believes that he will be satisfied with what he essentially already had but for the south bank of the Dnieper, they are naïve, delusional, or complicit. Any truce along those lines will simply be a pause while Russia attempts to rebuild its army.

It is instructive to me at least that Russia has been forced to depend to an ever greater extent on the Wagner Group for its assault troops. In turn Wagner has been forced to use the sweepings from Russian prisons to attempt to replace its own unsustainable casualties. Hardly the actions of a modern, well organized, and successful army.

Both sides have suffered serious losses. I again recommend you peruse the Oryx tabulations. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html They represent a third party tracking effort based in Europe and Turkey maintaining a count of equipment losses of both sides. A platform only makes the list if there is photographic evidence of its damage, destruction, or capture. Obviously, actual losses will be much higher, but this service offers a good comparison to the claims of both the Russian and Ukrainian MODs. To date, Oryx lists 8953 Russian platforms destroyed damaged or captured. These range from tanks, to IFVs, to trucks, to aircraft, to naval vessels. 1663 of those were main battle tanks. In the same period, Ukraine has lost 2287 of which 453 were tanks. Not a bad exchange rate, though the losses obviously affect Ukraine disproportionately.

Yes, to conduct a successful breakthrough of Russian defensive lines, Ukraine needs adequate armor, artillery, and training. You are correct that 45 modern tanks are inconsequential. I find it infuriating that we have not done more sooner. Russian troops are struggling in the current winter conditions in Ukraine. They are inadequately supplied and trained for such a combat environment. Two fully NATO equipped mechanized BDEs could rupture the Russian line at any place of Ukraine's choosing. Sadly, neither this administration nor Europe has had the courage to make those armament decisions in a timely manner.

As a result, I suspect that Ukraine will be forced to husband its strength through the winter rather than carry out the winter counter offensive I anticipated a few weeks ago. This is particularly true if Putin orders an attempt to resume offensive operations in the spring. We can thank the machinations of Jake Sullivan, Biden's National Security Advisor, and the absence of a competent Chief Executive for this dithering.

If the Leopard consortium comes through as promised now that Germany has finally acquiesced to the export of their tanks, Ukraine will have around 250 modern MBTs by summer. That will be enough to form the core of two modern mechanized brigades. I am not sure that will be decisive.

Here in West-Europe, no one seriously believes in the victory of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine will be supported until the Russians are fed up and finally go to the negotiating table. We must also restrain ourselves from war rhetoric and if the matter escalates, then good night.
Russia is not Serbia and has the most nuclear weapons in the world.
Putin get out of Crimea and the Donbass only through a third world war.
There has guaranteed nobody desire on it here.
Selensky should finally recognize this reality.
It will take another one, or two years, then both parties should be ready.

Crazy world.

Foxi, I think nuclear weapons are of very limited utility. But if we allow ourselves to be blackmailed once by their threatened use, we will be subject to such blackmail forever.

But to my main point, while it is true that no one will win a strategic nuclear exchange, Russia would clearly lose it. Some portion of the Russian arsenal would indeed get through to Western Europe and the US. Some portion of that would hit where it was aimed and explode as designed. I frankly would be stunned if their nuclear equipped submarines successfully launched a single missile before being destroyed by a lurking Virginia class attack boat. But the damage done to the West would indeed be catastrophic.

However, virtually all the US strike would get through. Those warheads would hit exactly where they were aimed and explode exactly as designed. Whatever the damage done by Russian weapons, Putin knows that Russia, as a country and a culture, would cease to exist. Committing national suicide is not a retaliatory choice whatever the ravings of Russian propagandists over on RT.

This war will indeed end in negotiations. Those negotiations will begin in earnest when Putin - not Zelensky - concludes the war is no longer worth the cost. Increasing the flow of counter offensive capability to Ukraine can only hasten Russia reaching that conclusion.
 
I have found this YouTube channel and I have been watching it for at least a month. It has an Ukraine bias but it tells both the Ukrainian successes and failures. This was released last night. It may provide some information for your questions.
Very interesting and useful jfet, thank you.
 
rainbow tanks meme.jpg
 
@Red Leg thanks again for a more realistic assessment of the Ukraine situation than available most anywhere else! Short, sweet, and factual.
 
If you are so Inclined

Please raise a glass for the Birthday of the RLI

Some of the Saints are still marching on

an occasion to think of those no longer here

J
Absent comrades. Gladly.

One of my prize possessions is a copy of Reid-Daly's "Pamwe Chete" inscribed to me by Anthony "Ant" White. A few years ago, I spent several days with my friend and PH Abraham "Boet" Van Aarve (RLI) at Ant's lovely hardwood concession in Mozambique. During the day Boet and I hunted Suni and magnificent Nyala. In the evenings, we set up late with Ant talking about those things that interest old soldiers.
 
Foxi, I think nuclear weapons are of very limited utility. But if we allow ourselves to be blackmailed once by their threatened use, we will be subject to such blackmail forever.
I am less afraid of blackmail than of possible short-circuit reactions.
Putin is now certainly under powerful pressure at home because his conventional warfare is not working.
But to my main point, while it is true that no one will win a strategic nuclear exchange, Russia would clearly lose it. Some portion of the Russian arsenal would indeed get through to Western Europe and the US. Some portion of that would hit where it was aimed and explode as designed. I frankly would be stunned if their nuclear equipped submarines successfully launched a single missile before being destroyed by a lurking Virginia class attack boat. But the damage done to the West would indeed be catastrophic.
I am convinced that your armament is better than the Russian in any case.
However, if it comes to that, we in Western Europe won't care who knocks out our lights.
However, virtually all the US strike would get through. Those warheads would hit exactly where they were aimed and explode exactly as designed. Whatever the damage done by Russian weapons, Putin knows that Russia, as a country and a culture, would cease to exist. Committing national suicide is not a retaliatory choice whatever the ravings of Russian propagandists over on RT.

This war will indeed end in negotiations. Those negotiations will begin in earnest when Putin - not Zelensky - concludes the war is no longer worth the cost. Increasing the flow of counter offensive capability to Ukraine can only hasten Russia reaching that conclusion.
not Zelensky....

a completely new aspect that no one here in Germany has yet taken a closer look at, at least not publicly.
You are not already building a successor ????
Let's hear something about what the American think tanks are up to.

Good evening.
 
Absent comrades. Gladly.

One of my prize possessions is a copy of Reid-Daly's "Pamwe Chete" inscribed to me by Anthony "Ant" White. A few years ago, I spent several days with my friend and PH Abraham "Boet" Van Aarve (RLI) at Ant's lovely hardwood concession in Mozambique. During the day Boet and I hunted Suni and magnificent Nyala. In the evenings, we set up late with Ant talking about those things that interest old soldiers.

I'm not sure Ant wants to be found ... :cool:

I was just a boy - scared of my own shadow - not in their league
 
"Any truce along those lines will simply be a pause while Russia attempts to rebuild its army."

Red Leg,
that makes nevertheless each large power, the reorganization and restructuring of its army.
But for a long time there will be silence and the West will no longer give the black under his fingernails on his promises, unlike before.No more Western technology comes over.
He will need more decades,longer than before,in 30 years he will be 90:cool:

Communism, or its variants, will probably not change in Russia.
It has existed in Moscow for 100 years.
 
Valid points. I don't know who is in charge of the grand strategy, but this trickle feeding Ukraine only makes sense if:
1. It is conceded that in a peace agreement Russia will end up with the Donbas more or less upon the frozen lines, and Crimea.
2. Agreed the small number of 41 tanks is inconsequential. Even the 300 odd are said to be not enough to push Russia out, especially having allowed lag time for the frozen line fortifications to be hardened.
3. The tanks, and the aircraft threat therefore look more like a statement by Ukraine's backers to Russia of 'so far and no further'.
4. If the intention was really just to deplete Russia at Ukraine's expense. Patriots late in the day, and too few. Tanks late in the day and too few. Russia in the meantime gets to fight the war it likes, and to empty it's jails and get rid of it's criminals.

I am no military genius, but if I am wrong and the West really intended for Russia to be kicked out of Ukraine then this pussy footing looks like the greatest incompetence in history. War is brutal, war is dangerous, you fight to win,
Time to bring on the F15s and F18s. F**k Putin! The Russians were piloting Mig 15s for North Korea illegally during the Korean UN "Police Action" (what a joke) WAR, so turn about is fair play. Paint the Taliban flag on the planes and blame it on them. They were left behind when Brandon abandoned all of the military equipment in Asscrackistan? Let Putin figure it out. LOL
 

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