South Africa Rand Is Crashing

[ActionBob]

From a US perspective it is more complicated than that. RSA doesn't factor in real high to the strong USD. Remember it takes two to tango, a strong USD and weak Rand are combined right now. I for one would prefer a weaker USD so our exports would be more competitive. The large difference that would make me easily could offset the few dollars saved by a week Rand on a hunt. The problem I had with the last big thread on this issue was the misrepresentation of facts.

 

[siml]

Took Zimbabwe roughly 24 years after their first democratic election from a wealthy country to go to the poorest, I just hope South Africa learnt from Zims mistakes, but at this time I am worried about our future. 5 of the top universities are closed in South Africa at the moment due to violence and protest. Education is the key to a countries success, just about every state department is bankrupt. I agree with @ActionBob a level exchange is better in general for economics.

 

[ActionBob]

Very sad at best, downright criminal at worst, what seems to be going on in politics around the World. A few bad leaders can screw things up for a generation. Hopefully the US can pull out of this and recover from a bad/weak leader. Not that this has lowered our currency value... I think what we do has such profound effect World wide that right now most other currencies are weakened. And I hope it is short lived for Canada, hopefully voters see the light next round. As for RSA, IDK where much hope lies..... I just pray it turns around.

 

[siml]

I think a lot has to do with all the political correctness/liberals bullsh#t. Call a spade a spade.

 

[ActionBob]

I think a lot has to do with all the political correctness/liberals bullsh#t. Call a spade a spade.

In the USA for sure....

God save us from the soccer moms on Facebook.

 

[jeff]

Yes if anything makes the rand versus dollar closer, my money is the dollar will weaken!

 

[KAROO WILD Safaris]

There's a no confidence vote against our president tomorrow in parliament. Here's praying that members of parliament vote with their conscience. Small positive acts like this can change the course of a nation.

 

[enysse]

Took Zimbabwe roughly 24 years after their first democratic election from a wealthy country to go to the poorest, I just hope South Africa learnt from Zims mistakes, but at this time I am worried about our future. 5 of the top universities are closed in South Africa at the moment due to violence and protest. Education is the key to a countries success, just about every state department is bankrupt.

That is disturbing news for sure.

If you had put me in coma 20 years and I woke up today, I would have a hard time believing how things could go so wrong in Zimbabwe....but things can change. Zimbabwe use to be so damn good, great agriculture, fabulous hunting....................... Put the wrong person in charge and you flush everything down the toilet.

I never take hunting in Africa for granted. It is relatively stable and has so much potential but you have political problems everywhere.

 

[CAustin]

Had not heard about the no confidence vote on Mr Zuma. Things seem to be heating up!

 

[ActionBob]

Yes if anything makes the rand versus dollar closer, my money is the dollar will weaken!

Of course for that to happen, other major currency's have to strengthen. After all, the only true value of a currency now that we are off the Gold Standard, is the faith in it that it is worth something... The paper it is printed on is not worth much. An economy is made up of the collective belief of the participants in it, as is a market. I really think our strong Dollar has more to do with just how weak other economies around the World are, than the strength of our own. World wide there is more faith in the USD than in most other currencies. In the big World wide picture, RSA is a pretty small participant so I agree with Jeff... With the above caveat.

 

[Gert Odendaal]

History in the making: keep a close look on how a country , South Africa takes a nose dive to rubble status...mines are closing down, workers loose their jobs, hungry people do not reason ...what is coming will not be nice to look at..Winnie`s legacy , liberation with fire , necklacing with burning tires is eminent...plundering shops like Pick a Pay/Checkers and Spar Supermarkets will be high on the masses `s agenda...take from those who have by the have-not`s....

 

[LivingTheDream]

Economically speaking, the dollar has to weaken at some point we have printed 10 trillion dollars in the last 8 plus years, eventually the chickens will come home to roost.

 

[LivingTheDream]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here a little bit. Mainly because I love this topic the way lots of guys around here love talking big bores and handloads.



Good deal to who? If the potential buyer thinks it is a good deal why didn't he take it? Could it be that it wasn't a good enough deal for him and his personal wants? I'd be THRILLED with a 50 inch kudu for my next kudu. Many guys would pass all day long on that size. Does that make them wrong for wanting a bigger kudu? Based on your reasoning above shouldn't they just be happy with that 50 inch kudu, or 54? Why are there guys who want to hold out for 60??? Silliness....



So what if it is $2k more for the proven track record? How about $3K? $10k? I'm sure there is a point that you would consider someone else, right? And yes, this inflection point is different for all of us.



How so? A weak exchange rate helps exports, and foreign hunting is an export product, even if it takes place in SA. Don't take this question to mean I don't think it isn't a really tough time for the indistry right now. I do, but not just due to the exchange rate. Imagine what it would be like today if the rate had gone from 11/1 to 6/1 over the last year. Everything else being equal no way that would have been better for outfitters.



And this is the key - supply, demand, and differentiation. Supply and demand are the base, but "value" for a product, real or percieved, is why any of us will pay more than rock bottom prices.

@Royal27 the fact I got quoted twice actually makes me feel pretty good about myself.

So everyone has a number some pay 100 more others 5k more, again this is perceived value. I agree there is a ton of factors, at the local shows it seems like no one wants to go to Africa and I believe this is somewhat the Cecil effect and some uncertainty economically and politically speaking (election year). So I can agree with you that it is a variety of factors. What I meant by my comment is an outfitter puts together a package and gives discounts and the client comes back and says the exchange rate is in my favor take more off. I think the market is in a hard place and negotiating based on FOREX makes it even more risky.

An outfitter can't be all things to everyone, 60 in Kudu aren't everywhere and people will pay for that. It is all about value but as I have learned in business usually the mid of the road guys (not low cost/high volume or low volume/high service) are the ones that get hurt in a market like this. Again capitalism is awesome and I am still waiting for the bottom to hit on buff as I don't think we are there yet.

 

[BRICKBURN]

History in the making: keep a close look on how a country , South Africa takes a nose dive to rubble status...mines are closing down, workers loose their jobs, hungry people do not reason ...what is coming will not be nice to look at..Winnie`s legacy , liberation with fire , necklacing with burning tires is eminent...plundering shops like Pick a Pay/Checkers and Spar Supermarkets will be high on the masses `s agenda...take from those who have by the have-not`s....

Everyone's worst nightmare.

 

[lcq]

Everyone's worst nightmare.

sadly I feel that is where RSA is headed

 

[35bore]

I honestly am not sure how much the exchange rate really matters. The Canadian Dollar has been falling against the dollar for sometime (not as quickly as the Rand). Those outfitters charge in USD and since there is a limited number of permits as well however due to demand their prices have continued to go up.

So I do agree there will be some deal making going on over the falling Rand however I would not expect them to post these prices as in the event the Rand gains strength they could really be hurting themselves in the long run. For example a customer looks today and sees a Kudu for 900 and then 6 months later it is 1200, obviously the client will be upset.

I say this as a client, I obviously will try to work for a deal but I would not put the currency exchange as part of my negotiations, because if it changed the other way I would be super PO if they came back to me and said pay more the prices went up because the Rand gained strength. Its a slipper slope for both the outfitters, PHs and clients.

Work the deal, no doubt. At the same time picture yourself on the receiving end of this.....

I am not singling you out ,no way shape or form. We all look for deal, ALL of us, and if you guys get/take advantage of the situation, tip your asses off. Surprise everyone, because a lot of this thread seems to lean toward Cheap.

Stick to and stay loyal to the outfitters on this site. And stay safe.

 

[sestoppelman]

Not having read every post on this, let me offer this for whatever its worth. Regardless current exchange rates, shop around for a hunt that fits your wants, pay for it in whatever your own currency is, providing the outfitter finds it acceptable and forget about it. Trying to figure out R vs D, and this vs that, seems like an exercise in frustration. Work the best deal you can and forget about exchange rates.

 

[johnnyblues]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here a little bit. Mainly because I love this topic the way lots of guys around here love talking big bores and handloads.



Good deal to who? If the potential buyer thinks it is a good deal why didn't he take it? Could it be that it wasn't a good enough deal for him and his personal wants? I'd be THRILLED with a 50 inch kudu for my next kudu. Many guys would pass all day long on that size. Does that make them wrong for wanting a bigger kudu? Based on your reasoning above shouldn't they just be happy with that 50 inch kudu, or 54? Why are there guys who want to hold out for 60??? Silliness....



So what if it is $2k more for the proven track record? How about $3K? $10k? I'm sure there is a point that you would consider someone else, right? And yes, this inflection point is different for all of us.



How so? A weak exchange rate helps exports, and foreign hunting is an export product, even if it takes place in SA. Don't take this question to mean I don't think it isn't a really tough time for the indistry right now. I do, but not just due to the exchange rate. Imagine what it would be like today if the rate had gone from 11/1 to 6/1 over the last year. Everything else being equal no way that would have been better for outfitters.



And this is the key - supply, demand, and differentiation. Supply and demand are the base, but "value" for a product, real or percieved, is why any of us will pay more than rock bottom prices.

Ok buddy I understand your point and yes of course theirs always a ceiling when prices go up for just about everyone. My point is I just don't like when people try to "steal it".

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

What a difference a year makes. I noticed this morning that the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was something on the order of 1$ / 12.88R. So if an outfitter booked a hunt based on 1$ /17R last year and he's only going to get paid in full sometime soon, I wonder how that's going to work out by the end of the year?

 

[billc]

Any outfitter who booked based on 16 or 17 to 1 was kidding themselves. The smart ones booked hunts priced on a lower base rate and should be fine at 13 to 1.

I know for us we just do good pricing period not based all on what the rand does. Some of the places that based there specials on the rate will be putting less in there pocket and that bothers some more then others. It sure will be affecting the specials some guys had going though or what they will be doing here on out.