Bontebok price jump

[billc]

Dont think there is any simple answer to the question.I myself think there is more to it then supply and demand.

I have noticed some outfitters change prices at a drop of hat.They see they can make a few dollars more and go for it.I have also seen outfitters now with in a 100 dollars of there prices on animals for years now.Some see the market has limits others think the sky is the limit.

I myself have just figured there is times I can hunt certain animals and times I will need to wait.I have also found if you search around find a good outfitter some will do there best to help you find what you want.If they cant they will just tell you the best they can and you decide from there.

If cost goes up I understand they must charge more to stay in business.If they already have the animals but see one sold for X amount of dollars so now I can get more because of that.I myself will look elsewhere.It comes down to they can charge what they want but hunters can hunt the place they pick also.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

I do not see my children ever being able to afford hunting in Africa if prices rise at a faster rate than wages.

In the business/financial world they describe that situation as a bubble. Eventually if the bubble gets too big it will burst. Sometime around 2004 the price of homes in the U.S. started to rise like this, particularly here in Phoenix and of course it all came crashing down a few years later.

If this is the case with the cost of a safari and the rate of inflation continues to exceed wage growth, the same will happen.

 

[ActionBob]

Yes some are getting excited about high auction prices. But I say go ahead and sell the darn things on auction! How many can reasonably be captured and transported? At what cost? What other selling costs are there? How much is commission and advertising to the auction house? Do they need health testing and health sheets? I doubt it is all gravy... How many outfitters are pointing out these extra costs to land owners? People need to stop, think, do the math, and decide if they want to sever the ties or pipeline of hunters in the long term for the (possibly) of a quick buck.... This bubble will burst, it always does.

I know some get frustrated by my farming analogies, but it is so comparable...
Last year corn price was something in the area of $4 in my area (had peaked at $8) and I wanted to buy a field for silage... The guy told me he needed $5.50 because that is what the price was going back up to.... It is now $2.85, maybe he should have taken the $4?

People are talking about how corn has to go back to $4 because that is what it costs to produce now... The market does not care what it costs, the market only cares what the market it.

I also know a guy who was borrowing money, in tight financial straights (cash poor but large amounts of wealth sitting there) with 250,000 bushels of corn in his bins NOT selling when it hit $8 because he was waiting for $10. How do you make that guy a millionaire???? Well easy, you drop the corn price in half while he is still sitting on it so he goes from $2m to $1m!! Greed can be expensive.

 

[ChasingHemingway]

Great dialogue Gentlemen - I gave noticed for this most part we have hunters, including, myself commenting. Would be interested in the thoughts of the outfitters on this site.

dt

 

[Areaonereal]

Action Bob is correct. Nothing corrects high prices like high prices.

 

[ActionBob]

Not just Bontebok, that jumped. Most animals have jumped the hammer. Noticed where a Springbuck trophy sells for US $120 000.00 on an auction recently and a white flanked impala ewe for US $920 000.00???

That's where their going to, and that is just the sad beginning.

Ok now how do you support those numbers? I've seen this same thing played out with show cows and high end registered cattle.... The first thing you need to look into is where is that value?

I'm going to compare dairy cattle again but I'm sure it is similar;
1. They have the value of the profit from the milk and ultimately the meat they produce themselves. Those are commodity values and there is a fixed and known market for that, similar to the cull value of Springbuck, the meat is worth what it is worth.
2. The value of the genetics they pass on to their offspring. First there is additional commodity value of the average specimens. And this can be enhanced if they have superior genetics and can be scientifically proven, it can in dairy and most popular beef cattle breeds. However I'm skeptical whether the systems are in place to prove that beyond that it may be a fluke individual with wildlife. Beware of clinical observation.
3. There is "perceived value". The value people "think" something has, but cannot be substantiated or supported by rational science or even economics... Kind of like junk bonds. I think this is being played off for all it is worth and as many have pointed out, this cannot be supported any longer than the participants in this game want to play.... It usually works out like a pyramid scheme.... Those at the top make money, the larger group of blocks at the bottom pay for that.

Now back to the documented or registered cattle comparison... There are individuals who sell for huge sums... Usually to a syndicate of investors.. They may have a marketing plan that involves a head line grabbing price of the matriarch of the offspring they will to sell. But this is supported on the female side only by the technology of flushing multiple embryos from the donor and creating many pregnancies per month in surrogate recipients.

Or this individual is bought simply for the prestige of ownership... As perhaps is done for some real big trophy class wildlife specimens... I personally choose to not participate in that.

And then there is the more nefarious syndicate buying... You guys get together and buy ours at this price, and we'll buy yours... So it looks like the market is this high and then we can dupe a bunch of suckers into thinking the market is this high!

People need to think this stuff through.. The real value is whatever can be produced reliably day in and day out by the majority of the available product.

I am glad to hear a lot of hunters chiming and saying enough is enough and I'm not going to participate in this foolishness. And I see outfitters doing the same. Prices moving up marginally on some things, running specials on others... My PH outright told me that in his opinion we should steer clear of some of these things that are out of hand.

 

[Areaonereal]

Syndicate buying has went on for years in the livestock and horse business. Reminds of the time I traded two $5,000.00 cats for a $10,000 dog.

 

[spoonieduck]

The free market always finds equilibrium. There are always those that will pay anything to hunt what they want from ducks to deer to lions and rhinos. The problem is there is just not enough of them to support the safari industry at it's current level. It is the nature of commerce to test the upper limits of pricing. As many have already said in this post once landowners and outfitters see income drop as their expenses rise they will either drop prices or sell out to those who are willing to work for smaller profit.

I am 60 years old and went to Africa for the first time in 2013 and am going back in 2015. I have always been a working class guy who raised 3 kids and sent them to college and paid for 2 weddings. Finally getting my turn. In the US wages are not rising as fast as costs for health care, housing and education among other things. I do not see my children ever being able to afford hunting in Africa if prices rise at a faster rate than wages.

I count myself lucky to have had the chance to hunt in Africa. I declined to hunt Sable on my next hunt because it seems crazy to pay $7000 trophy fee when I can go back to Zim and shoot a non trophy elephant or a leopard or another buffalo for the same price. I'd rather have exiting than pretty on safari.

From spoonieduck: I just got back from S.A. a couple of days ago. I have friends in the game ranching industry and, while there, I attended one game auction and saw the glossy brochure from a previous auction. Prices on auctioned game are astronomical. One ugly, pied-colored immature impala ram went for R9,600,000--that's almost 1 million dollars. The highest prices are for color-phase animals with black impala, golden wildebeest, saddle-backed impala, King wildebeest and color-phase springbok going for really big money. Heterozygous, color-phase "splits" [color-phase recessives] are also going for big money. Cape buffalo and eland, especially, Livingstone eland, are also way up there as are sable and roan. Speculators tell me that they expect to see the next big run up in common kudu.

This is a superheated gamblers market that SHOULD be of no interest to hunters.....but.....as the ultimate "consumer" of game, hunters will be affected. Remember, however, that hunters are not the only consumers of game. Many ranchers, even ranchers completely uninterested in foreign hunters, simply want game on their understocked ranches and will pay for it. The game departments of several S.A. provinces are apparently liberalizing game animal ownership. Small properties of under 50 hectares that previously weren't permitted to own certain game animals will now be able to. Also, game native to certain locales of S.A. will now be allowed to be raised and bred in other parts of S.A. If all this goes as planned, there will be an increased demand on common wild-type [non-color phase] game. These, of course, are the animals most hunters go for. Increased demand equals increased prices. In some cases hunters may be priced out altogether. Hopefully, this effect will be temporary but "temporary" might last for years.

This pricing effect will undoubtedly affect pricing in countries as far away as Namibia and Zimbabwe. Yes, this won't go on forever. Ranches and markets will ultimately become saturated but, in the meantime, the hunting industry may be seriously damaged.

 

[woods1126]

Thank you very much everyone. I have gained a wealth of knowledge here. I have passed this info on also.

I really believe this, as many have stated, will run its course. I just hope I can continue hunting SA while this does. I guess it's like anything else. If hunting Africa is your priority, then you will drive your tired pickup a couple more years, put off that new architectural roof you want, but don't really need, keep eating at Chinese buffets, instead of the high priced steakhouse down the road, and book that next trip to "The Dark Continent"!!. Kevin

 

[billc]

Well I figure there will always be a few who do it the right way and be in it for the long term.May need to pay a few more dollars as cost go up but I plan on getting back to africa in 2016.Just need to pick what I can afford for me and the kid and go have fun.

 

[Royal27]

Well I figure there will always be a few who do it the right way and be in it for the long term.May need to pay a few more dollars as cost go up but I plan on getting back to africa in 2016.Just need to pick what I can afford for me and the kid and go have fun.

PICK?????

You don't pick!!!!! You just give Pieter and Loodt blank checks and shoot!!!!

 

[enysse]

I noticed the curio market at the Tambo International was super expensive since the last time I was at the airport. Prices were high, so I bought nothing...problem solved. Greed in the hunting has always been and will continue to be a problem. In the end the market plays out on its own. Look at the USA, you look at the price of an elk, mule deer or sheep hunt, prices are high, problem solved, I just won't hunt them anymore or ever...whatever way you look at it. Letting go is just a process of maturing and realizing things just were not meant to be.

 

[buchnerl]

PICK?????

You don't pick!!!!! You just give Pieter and Loodt blank checks and shoot!!!!

Absolutely, leave the checks behind and go out and enjoy yourself! Credit cards does basically the same thing - then Royal I am still figuring where I will get that 20 inch Warthog on "auction" you want to have in your bedroom!

 

[Royal27]

Absolutely, leave the checks behind and go out and enjoy yourself! Credit cards does basically the same thing - then Royal I am still figuring where I will get that 20 inch Warthog on "auction" you want to have in your bedroom!

Nancy will be SO happy!!!

She did mention the other day that she hoped you realized she wanted to see HER lion and not A lion. You have more pressure on you with that one than I could ever put on you for the actual hunt!!!

 

[ActionBob]

I noticed the curio market at the Tambo International was super expensive since the last time I was at the airport. Prices were high, so I bought nothing...problem solved. Greed in the hunting has always been and will continue to be a problem. In the end the market plays out on its own. Look at the USA, you look at the price of an elk, mule deer or sheep hunt, prices are high, problem solved, I just won't hunt them anymore or ever...whatever way you look at it. Letting go is just a process of maturing and realizing things just were not meant to be.

Absolutely correct!

We went down to the Cape of Good Hope and outside the entrance to the park, there were booths lined up with craftsmen selling their wares... They were very negotiable willing to sell for a fraction of their asking price. To the point I almost felt guilty, but they were all competing with each other to get a sale and we were limited what we could pack. It was the end of their season and they new that some money from a discounted sale was more profitable than no sale. That was Capitalism at work and the consumer was winning, as ussual.

Let these breeders knock themselves out, what goes around, comes around. And what goes up, always comes down.

 

[Royal27]

I noticed the curio market at the Tambo International was super expensive since the last time I was at the airport. Prices were high, so I bought nothing...problem solved. Greed in the hunting has always been and will continue to be a problem. In the end the market plays out on its own. Look at the USA, you look at the price of an elk, mule deer or sheep hunt, prices are high, problem solved, I just won't hunt them anymore or ever...whatever way you look at it. Letting go is just a process of maturing and realizing things just were not meant to be.

Absolutely correct!

We went down to the Cape of Good Hope and outside the entrance to the park, there were booths lined up with craftsmen selling their wares... They were very negotiable willing to sell for a fraction of their asking price. To the point I almost felt guilty, but they were all competing with each other to get a sale and we were limited what we could pack. It was the end of their season and they new that some money from a discounted sale was more profitable than no sale. That was Capitalism at work and the consumer was winning, as ussual.

Let these breeders knock themselves out, what goes around, comes around. And what goes up, always comes down.

I think we from the States sometimes forget that there is more than one way to negotiate sometimes. We're so used to the price being the price that we do what enysse states and we either buy, or walk away. And that definitely has an impact over time. I'll be honest. I use this way more often than I do true negotiation.

Bob's true negotiation though definitely plays out in the Safari business though. the outfitters WILL negotiate deals with you in most cases. If they won't and you don't feel it is a great deal, see rule number one. And, I personally don't feel bad about negotiating. Each business owner knows what their profit margin is (or they should) and they willingly make the deal. I don't let this get emotional, from either end. I've had people low ball me on sales and I just tell them no, or make a counter. No need to get insulted (although sometimes acting insulted is part of the negotiation and can be fun!!! ).

 

[buchnerl]

Nancy will be SO happy!!!

She did mention the other day that she hoped you realized she wanted to see HER lion and not A lion. You have more pressure on you with that one than I could ever put on you for the actual hunt!!!

Her Lion, has become the proud father of three little cubs now estimated to be around 3 months old. (on the picture only 1 month old) and courtesy of Fayroush Ludick - SANParks.

 

[Royal27]

You sure that bottom picture is HER lion? I don't see the scars on his face, but maybe it is just the angle and grass?

 

[buchnerl]

More than sure it is - Scars are just another kind of memory that heals over time and the thoughts perishes there of.

 

[enysse]

Bob's true negotiation though definitely plays out in the Safari business though. the outfitters WILL negotiate deals with you in most cases. If they won't and you don't feel it is a great deal, see rule number one. And, I personally don't feel bad about negotiating. Each business owner knows what their profit margin is (or they should) and they willingly make the deal. I don't let this get emotional, from either end. I've had people low ball me on sales and I just tell them no, or make a counter. No need to get insulted (although sometimes acting insulted is part of the negotiation and can be fun!!! ).

I believe in negotiating too. I all depends on the other person's view and how much money they want to make. I look at my whole life now as a negotiation. If I do this I get that, if I compromise here what will it get me. At the end of the day I hope each party is happy, but I'm always willing to explain my point of view.